MLB pitcher strikeout

Janson Junk

vs Chicago Cubs2026-09-04PinnacleRHP

Projection

3.8

Ensemble: 3.5

Market line

3.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+0.3

Over 3.5

30% (3/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

9.4%

Whiff%

11.8%

CSW%

22.1%

WHIP

1.33

Avg IP

4.2

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

2.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

14.5%

Team chase

27.6%

Recent chase

29.6%

Recent contact

80.6%

Recent K% (7d)

17.4%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

18.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

3.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

2.6

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

30% (3/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.8

Sep 4

vs CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 30

@ WSH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 26

vs BOS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 23

vs WSH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 17

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

14.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

12.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 14.2

Sep 4

vs CHC

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 30

@ WSH

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 26

vs BOS

UNDER

Outs

-11.5

Aug 23

vs WSH

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 17

@ PHI

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Chicago Cubs

No prior starts found against Chicago Cubs.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	3.5	+109	-145	+0.3	-0.3	Best Over
DraftKings	3.5	+119	-152	+0.3	-0.3	—
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	+0.3	-0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

57.8%Line

5+ Ks

36.6%

6+ Ks

19%

7+ Ks

8.7%

8+ Ks

3.2%

9+ Ks

1.1%

10+ Ks

0.4%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	38%	8%	19.1%	93.7
Slider	15.8%	9.8%	12.5%	86.2
Changeup	15.5%	11.5%	12.8%	87.1
Sweeper	15.1%	13.3%	5.7%	80.1
Curveball	9.2%	20%	12.5%	80.8
Sinker	6.4%	9.1%	14.3%	93.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

19%

2-Strike Foul%

22%

2-Strike Contact%

90.9%

Expected Ks

12.1

K Luck

-4.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	15	13.3%	86.7%
1-2	24	25%	75%
2-2	20	30%	70%
3-2 (full)	12	16.7%	83.3%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sweeper	Curveball	Sinker
Pete Crow-ArmstrongL	28.3%	25.4%	18.4% vs R: 17.8%	15.6% vs R: 14.7%	16.3% vs R: 15.7%	25.6% vs R: 30.8%	27.4% vs R: 30%	25.8% vs R: 28%
Seiya SuzukiR	18.5%	26.8%	15.5% vs R: 17.1%	15.9% vs R: 16%	14.3% vs R: 15.4%	27.7% vs R: 27.6%	20.8% vs R: 25.6%	23.1% vs R: 20.7%
Michael BuschL	22.3%	23.5%	16.3% vs R: 17.1%	23.5% vs R: 24.6%	30.5% vs R: 29%	11.3% vs R: 15.2%	23.9% vs R: 22.2%	19.3% vs R: 13%
Alex BregmanR	13.8%	15.9%	10.7% vs R: 12.3%	19.1% vs R: 19.8%	10.8% vs R: 8.6%	14.6% vs R: 14.3%	23.4% vs R: 17.8%	8.9% vs R: 9%
Ian HappS	33.8%	29.3%	24.7% vs R: 23.6%	18.8% vs R: 16.2%	23.8% vs R: 22.2%	29.4% vs R: 31%	25% vs R: 25%	22.2% vs R: 19%
Nico HoernerR	10.1%	8.3%	7.6% vs R: 8.2%	14.7% vs R: 17.7%	12.7% vs R: 2.7%	5.7% vs R: 4.8%	8.3% vs R: 10.3%	8.3% vs R: 6.8%
Pedro RamírezS	11.4%	19.5%	20.5% vs R: 20%	16.7% vs R: 14.3%	14.7% vs R: 21.7%	18.2% vs R: 25%	17.4% vs R: 19%	22.2% vs R: 25%
Michael ConfortoL	12.5%	28.9%	23.9% vs R: 23.9%	17.2% vs R: 18.5%	20.4% vs R: 20.4%	23.8% vs R: 20%	28% vs R: 28%	11.1% vs R: 11.5%
Carson KellyR	17.7%	15.3%	9.4% vs R: 6.2%	18.1% vs R: 17.3%	12.5% vs R: 11.1%	24.4% vs R: 25%	3.7% vs R: 0%	18.6% vs R: 20.4%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sweeper	Curveball	Sinker
Pete Crow-ArmstrongL	20.7% vs R: 21.5%	30% vs R: 24.2%	26.5% vs R: 26.8%	27.9% vs R: 30%	32.9% vs R: 34.8%	13.2% vs R: 17.9%
Seiya SuzukiR	15% vs R: 18.2%	28.1% vs R: 30.4%	32.9% vs R: 41.4%	31.6% vs R: 34.2%	25% vs R: 25%	10.7% vs R: 10.8%
Michael BuschL	12.5% vs R: 13.7%	42.3% vs R: 40.2%	44.8% vs R: 44.8%	26.3% vs R: 34.2%	37.2% vs R: 38.9%	13.4% vs R: 17.2%
Alex BregmanR	6.8% vs R: 9.5%	30.4% vs R: 32.1%	23% vs R: 16.7%	24.4% vs R: 25.7%	26.5% vs R: 24.1%	3.6% vs R: 3.6%
Ian HappS	25.9% vs R: 28.8%	30.2% vs R: 28.4%	36.8% vs R: 30.5%	28.6% vs R: 27.3%	41.7% vs R: 38.9%	11.8% vs R: 16.1%
Nico HoernerR	6.3% vs R: 6.5%	24.2% vs R: 25.9%	20.4% vs R: 17%	11% vs R: 12.1%	9.8% vs R: 10.7%	3.7% vs R: 2.4%
Pedro RamírezS	17.7% vs R: 18.1%	12.1% vs R: 11.5%	16.7% vs R: 17.9%	15.4% vs R: 21.1%	56.5% vs R: 55%	11.6% vs R: 11.8%
Michael ConfortoL	17.3% vs R: 17.4%	23.1% vs R: 22.9%	37.8% vs R: 37.8%	33.3% vs R: 25%	44% vs R: 44%	14.9% vs R: 14%
Carson KellyR	7.5% vs R: 6.9%	32.4% vs R: 29.8%	31.8% vs R: 15.4%	26.3% vs R: 31.1%	17.9% vs R: 8.3%	6.7% vs R: 5.2%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Pete Crow-Armstrong	2	0	0%	.000
Alex Bregman	2	0	0%	.000
Nico Hoerner	2	0	0%	.000
Michael Busch	1	1	100%	.000
Ian Happ	1	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Pete Crow-Armstrong	30.8%	30.4%	21.4%	79%
Seiya Suzuki	21.5%	17.7%	12.3%	81.8%
Michael Busch	25.9%	25.2%	32.7%	65.2%
Alex Bregman	24.8%	33.3%	12.7%	83.2%
Ian Happ	23.7%	28.6%	25.6%	80.3%
Nico Hoerner	35.7%	47.1%	12.2%	85.6%
Pedro Ramírez	33.3%	32.9%	13.5%	86.1%
Michael Conforto	30.4%	31.6%	15.8%	78.4%
Carson Kelly	22.1%	19.7%	5.9%	86%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	Seattle Mariners	3.6	5
2026-07-20	Houston Astros	3.4	3
2026-07-26	San Diego Padres	4	6
2026-07-31	New York Mets	4.3	4
2026-08-06	Atlanta Braves	4.2	1
2026-08-12	Pittsburgh Pirates	2.7	2
2026-08-17	Philadelphia Phillies	1.2	2
2026-08-23	Washington Nationals	1.6	2
2026-08-30	Washington Nationals	1.2	2
2026-09-04	Chicago Cubs	3.84	4

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 9.4%

!Whiff rate is 11.8%

!CSW rate is 22.1%

!Opponent K% is 21.2%

!Average pitch count is 64

!WHIP is 1.33

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Chicago Cubs	Home	5	4	75	1.28	—	—
2026-08-30	Washington Nationals	Away	4.2	2	65	1.3	8	25%
2026-08-26	Boston Red Sox	Home	1	0	8	1.3	1	0%
2026-08-23	Washington Nationals	Home	4.2	2	69	1.32	10	20%
2026-08-17	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	5	2	88	1.36	10	20%
2026-08-12	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	6	2	81	1.32	13	15.4%
2026-08-06	Atlanta Braves	Away	3	1	47	1.36	6	16.7%
2026-07-31	New York Mets	Away	5	4	79	1.33	11	36.4%
2026-07-26	San Diego Padres	Home	4.2	6	75	1.36	12	50%
2026-07-20	Houston Astros	Away	4	3	80	1.35	13	23.1%