MLB pitcher strikeout

Shane Drohan

@ Cincinnati Reds2026-09-04DraftKingsLHP

Projection

5.8

Ensemble: 5.7

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.3

Over 5.5

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 5.5

DraftKings

Confidence

80/100

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Pitcher K%

20.6%

Whiff%

24.9%

CSW%

27%

WHIP

1.23

Avg IP

Avg pitches

83.5

Last 5 avg Ks

4.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

22.9%

Team chase

29.6%

Recent chase

31%

Recent contact

74.1%

Recent K% (7d)

25.9%

Opp K% vs RHP

26.3%

Opp K% vs LHP

24.3%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 5.8

Sep 4

@ CIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 29

vs TEX

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 23

vs ATL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 18

vs SEA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Aug 13

@ LAD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 4U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 16

Sep 4

@ CIN

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 29

vs TEX

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 23

vs ATL

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 18

vs SEA

UNDER

Outs

-9.5

Aug 13

@ LAD

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cincinnati Reds

No prior starts found against Cincinnati Reds.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	5.5	-101	-126	+0.3	-0.3	Best Over
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	+0.3	-0.3	—
Pinnacle	5.5	+100	-133	+0.3	-0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

87.2%

5+ Ks

72.8%

6+ Ks

54.6%Line

7+ Ks

35.9%

8+ Ks

21.1%

9+ Ks

10.4%

10+ Ks

4.9%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	27.7%	23.7%	19.2%	94.8
Slider	21.8%	37.5%	27.8%	86.3
Sinker	21.4%	9.6%	20.5%	94.7
Curveball	13.9%	26.8%	16.1%	80.6
Cutter	9.9%	14.9%	12.5%	91.2
Changeup	5.4%	27.3%	0%	86.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

42.9%

2-Strike Foul%

26.1%

2-Strike Contact%

76.8%

Expected Ks

22.7

K Luck

-1.7

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	25	44%	56%
1-2	30	46.7%	50%
2-2	20	55%	45%
3-2 (full)	13	30.8%	69.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Sinker	Curveball	Cutter	Changeup
Dane MyersR	21.6%	25.9%	22.6% vs L: 17%	18.4% vs L: 21.7%	18% vs L: 0%	16.7% vs L: 25%	23.1% vs L: 42.9%	10% vs L: 13.6%
Elly De La CruzS	26.5%	27.4%	19% vs L: 20%	27.1% vs L: 33.3%	28.8% vs L: 16.7%	31.9% vs L: 25%	8% vs L: 12.5%	13.9% vs L: 21.2%
Sal StewartR	22.8%	20.9%	24.2% vs L: 19%	14.3% vs L: 22.7%	13.5% vs L: 16.7%	17.2% vs L: 22.7%	14.8% vs L: 20%	12.3% vs L: 9.1%
Tyler StephensonR	23.6%	28.4%	21.2% vs L: 15.4%	25.3% vs L: 7.7%	18.3% vs L: 33.3%	25.8% vs L: 38.5%	20% vs L: 50%	19% vs L: 0%
Eugenio SuárezR	42%	32.8%	21.4% vs L: 19.3%	30.2% vs L: 37.5%	28.6% vs L: 45.5%	26.8% vs L: 20%	23.1% vs L: 40%	22.6% vs L: 9.1%
JJ BledayL	22.2%	20.9%	15.1% vs L: 13.5%	18.3% vs L: 20.7%	12.5% vs L: 3.6%	12.8% vs L: 12.5%	17.9% vs L: 14.3%	22% vs L: 37.5%
Matt McLainR	21.2%	29.3%	23.7% vs L: 14.3%	30.6% vs L: 23.1%	19% vs L: 20%	15% vs L: 7.7%	25% vs L: 25%	10.9% vs L: 15%
Héctor RodríguezL	31.2%	22.7%	20.7% vs L: 28.6%	50%	14.3% vs L: 0%	27.3%	—	18.2%
Edwin ArroyoS	24.4%	23.1%	10% vs L: 6.7%	30% vs L: 0%	23.1% vs L: 0%	42.9% vs L: 75%	50%	26.1% vs L: 33.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Sinker	Curveball	Cutter	Changeup
Dane MyersR	18.4% vs L: 13.7%	25% vs L: 22.2%	10.4% vs L: 0%	9.5% vs L: 15.4%	30.6% vs L: 27.8%	19.6% vs L: 23.1%
Elly De La CruzS	17.2% vs L: 8.2%	33.3% vs L: 40.7%	11.1% vs L: 7.1%	40.4% vs L: 30.8%	12.5% vs L: 15.4%	33.5% vs L: 34.1%
Sal StewartR	31.4% vs L: 24.4%	21.7% vs L: 25.9%	13.9% vs L: 10.3%	25.4% vs L: 28.6%	23.3% vs L: 25%	24.4% vs L: 22.9%
Tyler StephensonR	21.1% vs L: 13.5%	33.1% vs L: 10.5%	13.3% vs L: 6.2%	28.1% vs L: 41.7%	21.8% vs L: 8.3%	24.3% vs L: 11.1%
Eugenio SuárezR	29.4% vs L: 31%	49.6% vs L: 64%	12% vs L: 36.4%	51.2% vs L: 56.2%	17.8% vs L: 18.8%	35.8% vs L: 25.9%
JJ BledayL	12.4% vs L: 10.9%	34.7% vs L: 28.9%	13.3% vs L: 20.6%	35% vs L: 55.6%	12.9% vs L: 33.3%	40.1% vs L: 72.7%
Matt McLainR	26% vs L: 11.7%	38.2% vs L: 27.8%	10.3% vs L: 8%	19.4% vs L: 9.1%	24.4% vs L: 7.1%	27.6% vs L: 25%
Héctor RodríguezL	22.2% vs L: 27.3%	31.2%	23.8% vs L: 40%	36.4%	11.1%	30.8%
Edwin ArroyoS	13.1% vs L: 10.3%	33.3% vs L: 10%	15.6% vs L: 12.5%	35.3% vs L: 54.5%	27.8%	28.8% vs L: 40%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Elly De La Cruz	6	2	33.3%	.333
Sal Stewart	5	1	20%	.400
Tyler Stephenson	5	1	20%	.250
Eugenio Suárez	5	1	20%	.500
Matt McLain	4	1	25%	.000
Dane Myers	2	1	50%	.000
Edwin Arroyo	2	1	50%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Dane Myers	29.7%	37.3%	21.6%	79.5%
Elly De La Cruz	25.8%	28.3%	26%	75.8%
Sal Stewart	32.9%	39.4%	16%	77.7%
Tyler Stephenson	23.2%	26.3%	33.3%	72.8%
Eugenio Suárez	28.9%	20.2%	28.9%	68.2%
JJ Bleday	21%	17.3%	12.5%	81.5%
Matt McLain	27.3%	31.8%	30.4%	78.3%
Héctor Rodríguez	38.4%	36.5%	24.4%	70.7%
Edwin Arroyo	39.3%	41.7%	37.5%	62.5%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.3	6
2026-07-18	Miami Marlins	5.6	9
2026-07-24	Colorado Rockies	5.9	6
2026-07-31	Los Angeles Angels	5.8	7
2026-08-07	Minnesota Twins	4.9	4
2026-08-13	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.7	5
2026-08-23	Atlanta Braves	5.3	5
2026-08-29	Texas Rangers	5.4	6
2026-09-04	Cincinnati Reds	5.8	5

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 20.6%

!Whiff rate is 24.9%

!CSW rate is 27%

✓Opponent K% is 25.9%

!Average pitch count is 83.5

!WHIP is 1.23

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Cincinnati Reds	Away	4	5	78	1.31	—	—
2026-08-29	Texas Rangers	Home	5	6	99	1.3	13	46.2%
2026-08-23	Atlanta Braves	Home	5	5	83	1.29	9	55.6%
2026-08-18	Seattle Mariners	Home	2	1	39	1.25	5	20%
2026-08-13	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	5.1	5	85	1.24	10	50%
2026-08-07	Minnesota Twins	Home	5	4	94	1.25	12	33.3%
2026-07-31	Los Angeles Angels	Away	6	7	86	1.17	11	63.6%
2026-07-24	Colorado Rockies	Home	6	6	92	1.2	12	50%
2026-07-18	Miami Marlins	Home	6	9	90	1.18	13	69.2%
2026-07-11	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	6.1	6	83	1.2	14	42.9%