MLB pitcher strikeout

Keider Montero

@ Cleveland Guardians2026-09-04DraftKingsRHP

Projection

3.5

Ensemble: 3.5

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.0

Over 2.5

70% (7/10)· 3O streak

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Recommendation

Over 2.5

DraftKings

Confidence

83/100

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Pitcher K%

11.5%

Whiff%

17.6%

CSW%

25.3%

WHIP

0.99

Avg IP

5.2

Avg pitches

76.4

Last 5 avg Ks

3.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

18.5%

Platoon K%

14.3%

Team chase

29.8%

Recent chase

30.9%

Recent contact

83.4%

Recent K% (7d)

11.7%

Opp K% vs RHP

19.1%

Opp K% vs LHP

17%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.5

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.6

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 3O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 3.5

Sep 4

@ CLE

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 29

vs LAD

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 18

@ PIT

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 13

vs CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 7

@ SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

FanDuel

Model projection

14.9

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.6

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 15.5Model 14.9

Sep 4

@ CLE

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 29

vs LAD

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 18

@ PIT

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 13

vs CLE

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 7

@ SF

OVER

Outs

+2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cleveland Guardians

No prior starts found against Cleveland Guardians.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	2.5	-157	+123	+1.0	-1.0	Best Over
FanDuel	2.5	-162	+126	+1.0	-1.0	—
Pinnacle	2.5	-170	+127	+1.0	-1.0	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

49.7%

5+ Ks

28.8%

6+ Ks

13.9%

7+ Ks

5.7%

8+ Ks

1.8%

9+ Ks

0.6%

10+ Ks

0.2%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	28.8%	12.9%	15.6%	94.4
Sinker	24.2%	5.5%	11.1%	94.8
Slider	20.5%	28.1%	25.4%	86.3
Knuckle Curve	13.6%	19%	10.4%	80.2
Changeup	12.8%	28.2%	15.2%	86.8

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

28.3%

2-Strike Foul%

25.8%

2-Strike Contact%

84.6%

Expected Ks

15.1

K Luck

-2.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	20	30%	70%
1-2	23	26.1%	69.6%
2-2	20	10%	85%
3-2 (full)	9	22.2%	77.8%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Slider	Knuckle Curve	Changeup
Steven KwanL	13.2%	8.4%	7.2% vs R: 5.5%	5.3% vs R: 3%	15.5% vs R: 16.7%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%	4.9% vs R: 3.9%
Chase DeLauterL	19.3%	13%	18.4% vs R: 15.7%	11.5% vs R: 8%	15.2% vs R: 22.2%	10% vs R: 10%	9.2% vs R: 9.6%
José RamírezS	7.1%	15.2%	7% vs R: 8.3%	11.1% vs R: 9.7%	14.6% vs R: 16.2%	0% vs R: 0%	13.5% vs R: 14.5%
Jo AdellR	22.6%	24.3%	16.6% vs R: 17.1%	24.2% vs R: 24.6%	20.3% vs R: 21.4%	18.2% vs R: 20%	23.9% vs R: 24.4%
Nathaniel LoweL	25.6%	23.9%	17.7% vs R: 18.1%	17.6% vs R: 18.2%	18.2% vs R: 14.3%	0% vs R: 0%	13.5% vs R: 12.2%
Angel MartínezS	15.3%	25.1%	13.9% vs R: 11.5%	32.7% vs R: 37.5%	23.7% vs R: 22.7%	0% vs R: 0%	14% vs R: 11.1%
Travis BazzanaL	25.8%	19.7%	16.5% vs R: 14.4%	9.2% vs R: 7.4%	24% vs R: 24.6%	0% vs R: 0%	14.7% vs R: 13.3%
Austin HedgesR	10.1%	24.3%	12.9% vs R: 17.9%	28.6% vs R: 35.7%	18.4% vs R: 16%	0% vs R: 0%	15%
Brayan RocchioS	16%	13.7%	14.9% vs R: 14.9%	9.6% vs R: 7.3%	14.9% vs R: 7%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%	14.4% vs R: 14.5%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Slider	Knuckle Curve	Changeup
Steven KwanL	2.6% vs R: 2.4%	3% vs R: 5.3%	12.6% vs R: 5.5%	25% vs R: 16.7%	10.7% vs R: 7.9%
Chase DeLauterL	12.4% vs R: 10%	5% vs R: 4.1%	22.8% vs R: 21.7%	20% vs R: 20%	17.7% vs R: 17.7%
José RamírezS	9.2% vs R: 10%	9.3% vs R: 10.5%	19.3% vs R: 20.2%	0% vs R: 0%	19.9% vs R: 20%
Jo AdellR	20.5% vs R: 22.2%	16.5% vs R: 16%	36.1% vs R: 37%	18.2% vs R: 28.6%	40.4% vs R: 28.3%
Nathaniel LoweL	16.6% vs R: 16.4%	11.6% vs R: 13%	26% vs R: 17.9%	0% vs R: 0%	20% vs R: 18.2%
Angel MartínezS	12% vs R: 12%	15.8% vs R: 16%	22.3% vs R: 22.2%	22.2% vs R: 25%	19% vs R: 18.6%
Travis BazzanaL	15% vs R: 12.7%	12.4% vs R: 10.3%	36.5% vs R: 35.8%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	38.1% vs R: 34.6%
Austin HedgesR	15.9% vs R: 15.3%	6.8% vs R: 8.6%	29.2% vs R: 32%	0% vs R: 0%	25.9%
Brayan RocchioS	14.5% vs R: 12.4%	8.5% vs R: 11%	27.9% vs R: 23.5%	40% vs R: 35.7%	31.1% vs R: 27.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jo Adell	10	4	40%	.100
José Ramírez	9	1	11.1%	.000
Steven Kwan	8	0	0%	.000
Nathaniel Lowe	7	0	0%	.286
Chase DeLauter	6	1	16.7%	.333
Brayan Rocchio	6	0	0%	.167
Angel Martínez	5	0	0%	.500
Travis Bazzana	4	0	0%	.333
Austin Hedges	4	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Steven Kwan	18.6%	15.7%	8%	98.8%
Chase DeLauter	24%	26.6%	25%	83.1%
José Ramírez	29.4%	31.8%	15.9%	89.7%
Jo Adell	34.6%	34.2%	16.3%	80.2%
Nathaniel Lowe	30.8%	33.7%	23.4%	77%
Angel Martínez	40.2%	30.6%	16.1%	87.1%
Travis Bazzana	27.9%	26.9%	17.6%	81.4%
Austin Hedges	28.2%	27.3%	28.6%	75%
Brayan Rocchio	34.8%	50.9%	14.7%	78.6%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-22	Chicago Cubs	2.1	8
2026-07-27	Baltimore Orioles	5.2	1
2026-08-02	Athletics	4.5	2
2026-08-07	San Francisco Giants	3.6	5
2026-08-13	Cleveland Guardians	2	0
2026-08-18	Pittsburgh Pirates	2.1	3
2026-08-29	Los Angeles Dodgers	2.3	3
2026-09-04	Cleveland Guardians	3.5	4

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 11.5%

!Whiff rate is 17.6%

!CSW rate is 25.3%

!Opponent K% is 17.6%

!Average pitch count is 76.4

✓WHIP is 0.99

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Cleveland Guardians	Away	4	4	82	1.03	—	—
2026-08-29	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	5.1	3	73	0.99	9	33.3%
2026-08-18	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	5	3	78	1	9	33.3%
2026-08-13	Cleveland Guardians	Home	6.1	0	88	0.99	7	0%
2026-08-07	San Francisco Giants	Away	6	5	82	1.01	9	55.6%
2026-08-02	Athletics	Away	6	2	86	1	12	16.7%
2026-07-27	Baltimore Orioles	Home	4.1	1	80	1.02	9	11.1%
2026-07-22	Chicago Cubs	Away	5.1	8	81	0.96	14	57.1%
2026-07-17	Los Angeles Angels	Away	3.1	5	43	0.98	7	71.4%
2026-07-12	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	3	5	58	1.01	9	55.6%