MLB pitcher strikeout

Taj Bradley

@ Chicago White Sox2026-09-05FanDuelRHP

Projection

5.9

Ensemble: 5.8

Market line

6.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.6

Under 6.5

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

FanDuel

Confidence

A+

100/100

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Pitcher K%

30.6%

Whiff%

29.9%

CSW%

30.8%

WHIP

1.25

Avg IP

5.8

Avg pitches

97.8

Last 5 avg Ks

7.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

17.9%

Platoon K%

27.6%

Team chase

27.2%

Recent chase

25.8%

Recent contact

79.4%

Recent K% (7d)

19.3%

Opp K% vs RHP

23.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

24%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

FanDuel

Model projection

5.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.6

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 6.5Model 5.9

Sep 5

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 31

vs DET

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 25

@ ATH

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Aug 19

vs ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 13

vs PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.5

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 17.5Model 16.5

Sep 5

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 31

vs DET

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 25

@ ATH

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 19

vs ATL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 13

vs PHI

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Chicago White Sox

No prior starts found against Chicago White Sox.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	-0.6	+0.6	Best Under
DraftKings	6.5	+116	-148	-0.6	+0.6	—
Pinnacle	6.5	+106	-141	-0.6	+0.6	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

87.9%

5+ Ks

74.1%

6+ Ks

55.1%

7+ Ks

37.3%Line

8+ Ks

21.8%

9+ Ks

10.8%

10+ Ks

4.6%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	46.6%	13.3%	22.6%	97.3
Cutter	25.2%	33%	24.6%	89.9
Splitter	20.3%	27.6%	19.7%	91.9
Curveball	7.9%	27%	12.5%	83.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

52.1%

2-Strike Foul%

19.3%

2-Strike Contact%

66.7%

Expected Ks

34.2

K Luck

+2.8

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	35	60%	37.1%
1-2	44	54.5%	45.5%
2-2	34	50%	50%
3-2 (full)	17	23.5%	76.5%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Splitter	Curveball
Sam AntonacciL	21.2%	14.4%	16% vs R: 15.3%	16.2% vs R: 15.2%	15.4% vs R: 16.7%	12.1% vs R: 9.7%
Miguel VargasR	16%	18.1%	16.9% vs R: 17%	18.4% vs R: 19.4%	13.3% vs R: 20%	11.1% vs R: 4.2%
Munetaka MurakamiL	36.9%	32.8%	26.3% vs R: 27.1%	13.6% vs R: 18.8%	42.1% vs R: 37.5%	17.5% vs R: 23.3%
Andrew BenintendiL	34.8%	22%	22.3% vs R: 21.1%	20.6% vs R: 22.6%	41.2% vs R: 43.8%	15.4% vs R: 16.7%
Colson MontgomeryL	27.6%	36.6%	32.5% vs R: 34.4%	33.3% vs R: 31.6%	24% vs R: 25%	16.2% vs R: 20.8%
Braden MontgomeryS	26.8%	17.1%	12.1% vs R: 7.4%	13.6% vs R: 11.8%	26.5% vs R: 25%	10.7% vs R: 0%
Chase MeidrothR	18.8%	23%	20.2% vs R: 22.1%	8.9% vs R: 10.3%	21.4% vs R: 13.6%	5.9% vs R: 8.3%
Tristan PetersL	20.4%	17.5%	18.2% vs R: 17.7%	20% vs R: 20%	11.5% vs R: 11.5%	24.4% vs R: 24.4%
Jake RogersR	29.7%	29.3%	27.4% vs R: 27.7%	10% vs R: 10%	42.9%	27.8% vs R: 36.4%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Splitter	Curveball
Sam AntonacciL	12.5% vs R: 12.9%	14.9% vs R: 14.3%	25% vs R: 26.9%	22.7% vs R: 20%
Miguel VargasR	18.6% vs R: 20.5%	27.9% vs R: 29.2%	46.2% vs R: 50%	15.6% vs R: 8.8%
Munetaka MurakamiL	37.5% vs R: 36.5%	23.4% vs R: 18.9%	47.6% vs R: 47.4%	25.6% vs R: 29%
Andrew BenintendiL	21.7% vs R: 21.3%	28.4% vs R: 26.6%	41.7% vs R: 41.7%	29.4% vs R: 30.3%
Colson MontgomeryL	30.3% vs R: 30.8%	27.9% vs R: 25.5%	35.1% vs R: 36.1%	44.9% vs R: 43.6%
Braden MontgomeryS	21.3% vs R: 12.6%	23.4% vs R: 25.5%	40.5% vs R: 34.3%	23.5% vs R: 20%
Chase MeidrothR	14% vs R: 15.8%	15.9% vs R: 19.4%	27.3% vs R: 23.1%	8.8% vs R: 9.1%
Tristan PetersL	18.7% vs R: 18.2%	15% vs R: 14.1%	40% vs R: 40%	22.4% vs R: 21.2%
Jake RogersR	19.2% vs R: 19.4%	28.6% vs R: 30%	71.4%	16.7% vs R: 12.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Colson Montgomery	10	3	30%	.250
Andrew Benintendi	9	1	11.1%	.429
Chase Meidroth	9	1	11.1%	.375
Miguel Vargas	7	0	0%	.500
Sam Antonacci	3	0	0%	1.000
Tristan Peters	3	1	33.3%	.333

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Sam Antonacci	21.4%	18.4%	16%	87.8%
Miguel Vargas	22.8%	13%	15.1%	88.9%
Munetaka Murakami	22.5%	23.4%	39.6%	63.8%
Andrew Benintendi	33.8%	37.7%	19.4%	85.7%
Colson Montgomery	33.3%	33%	38.3%	67%
Braden Montgomery	27%	22.7%	6.5%	76.7%
Chase Meidroth	29.8%	30.7%	13.3%	81.4%
Tristan Peters	30.8%	23.5%	14%	76.8%
Jake Rogers	23%	30%	33.3%	86.5%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	Cleveland Guardians	7.3	10
2026-07-12	Los Angeles Angels	8.7	6
2026-07-18	Chicago Cubs	7.7	6
2026-07-23	Cleveland Guardians	5.9	5
2026-07-28	Kansas City Royals	5.8	10
2026-08-02	Seattle Mariners	6.3	2
2026-08-08	Milwaukee Brewers	5.9	7
2026-08-13	Philadelphia Phillies	7.6	3
2026-08-19	Atlanta Braves	6.8	7
2026-08-25	Athletics	6.5	11
2026-08-31	Detroit Tigers	7.2	9
2026-09-05	Chicago White Sox	5.88	6

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 30.6%

✓Whiff rate is 29.9%

✓CSW rate is 30.8%

✓Opponent K% is 23.4%

✓Average pitch count is 97.8

!WHIP is 1.25

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Chicago White Sox	Away	5	6	80	1.26	—	—
2026-08-31	Detroit Tigers	Home	7	9	104	1.26	15	60%
2026-08-25	Athletics	Away	6.2	11	99	1.28	17	64.7%
2026-08-19	Atlanta Braves	Home	5	7	88	1.28	13	53.8%
2026-08-13	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	4	3	89	1.29	10	30%
2026-08-08	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	5	7	97	1.25	16	43.8%
2026-08-02	Seattle Mariners	Away	6	2	94	1.24	10	20%
2026-07-28	Kansas City Royals	Home	6	10	102	1.21	16	62.5%
2026-07-23	Cleveland Guardians	Away	7	5	109	1.22	13	38.5%
2026-07-18	Chicago Cubs	Away	5	6	94	1.25	14	42.9%