MLB pitcher strikeout

Logan Allen

vs Detroit Tigers2026-09-04FanDuelLHP

Projection

3.9

Ensemble: 3.9

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.4

Over 3.5

14% (1/7)· 6U streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

16.7%

Whiff%

22%

CSW%

26.1%

WHIP

1.68

Avg IP

2.4

Avg pitches

43.8

Last 5 avg Ks

1.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

16.4%

Team chase

29.7%

Recent chase

30.6%

Recent contact

77.6%

Recent K% (7d)

24.8%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

22.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

3.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

14%

1 of 7 overs

Average Ks

2.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

14% (1/7)· 6U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

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Under

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Line 3.5Model 3.9

Sep 4

vs DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 29

vs KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 25

@ LAA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 23

@ COL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 16

vs SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

11.5

FanDuel

Model projection

13.7

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

14%

1 of 7 overs

Average Outs

7.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-4.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

14% (1/7)· 6U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

11.5

0.527

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Under

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Line 11.5Model 13.7

Sep 4

vs DET

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 29

vs KC

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Aug 25

@ LAA

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 23

@ COL

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Aug 16

vs SD

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Detroit Tigers

No prior starts found against Detroit Tigers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	+118	-150	+0.4	-0.4	Best Over
Pinnacle	3.5	+118	-150	+0.4	-0.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

53.9%Line

5+ Ks

31.9%

6+ Ks

15%

7+ Ks

6.1%

8+ Ks

2.1%

9+ Ks

0.4%

10+ Ks

0.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	30.6%	10%	9.5%	90.6
Cutter	27.2%	23.3%	15.4%	83.9
Sweeper	18.9%	38.5%	14.3%	77.6
Changeup	14.4%	36.4%	27.3%	82.3
Sinker	8.9%	0%	0%	88.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

36.4%

2-Strike Foul%

33.9%

2-Strike Contact%

79.5%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	4	25%	75%
1-2	18	44.4%	55.6%
2-2	10	30%	70%
3-2 (full)	5	20%	80%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sweeper	Changeup	Sinker
Gleyber TorresR	20.4%	18%	14.9% vs L: 10%	33.3% vs L: 28.6%	16.1% vs L: 25%	9.1% vs L: 4.2%	8.7% vs L: 22.2%
Hao-Yu LeeR	23%	23.3%	24.8% vs L: 26%	25% vs L: 42.9%	15% vs L: 0%	14.3% vs L: 16%	24.2% vs L: 18.2%
Kevin McGonigleL	19.1%	11.3%	11.5% vs L: 8.9%	6.1% vs L: 22.2%	14.8% vs L: 10.3%	15.3% vs L: 30.8%	12.5% vs L: 9.4%
Dillon DinglerR	27.1%	20.3%	17% vs L: 15.8%	17.5% vs L: 33.3%	12.7% vs L: 16.7%	20% vs L: 18.2%	12.9% vs L: 4.5%
Eduardo ValenciaR	40.6%	16.7%	37% vs L: 41.2%	0% vs L: 0%	0%	23.1% vs L: 18.2%	5.3% vs L: 9.1%
Zach McKinstryL	17.6%	15.7%	12.1% vs L: 24%	15.8% vs L: 0%	11.8% vs L: 6.2%	17.3% vs L: 25%	7.5% vs L: 6.7%
Spencer TorkelsonR	28.3%	32.4%	19.1% vs L: 10.9%	28.6% vs L: 28.6%	34.7% vs L: 10%	29% vs L: 28.1%	16.9% vs L: 18.2%
Max ClarkL	17.9%	24.7%	15.1% vs L: 16.7%	0%	28.6%	28.6% vs L: 14.3%	23.5% vs L: 22.2%
Javier BáezR	14.3%	20.8%	15.2% vs L: 14.3%	11.1%	20%	15% vs L: 27.3%	41.7% vs L: 100%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sweeper	Changeup	Sinker
Gleyber TorresR	20.2% vs L: 14.3%	32.4% vs L: 16.7%	10.4% vs L: 0%	23.7% vs L: 21.7%	7.4% vs L: 5.6%
Hao-Yu LeeR	23.7% vs L: 20.3%	23.3% vs L: 22.2%	18.6% vs L: 33.3%	29.1% vs L: 29.8%	19.4% vs L: 20%
Kevin McGonigleL	9.4% vs L: 9.1%	12.2% vs L: 27.3%	20% vs L: 28.6%	27.7% vs L: 40%	5.5% vs L: 5.9%
Dillon DinglerR	14.2% vs L: 10.1%	13.3% vs L: 18.5%	17.5% vs L: 16.7%	33.3% vs L: 31.5%	10.1% vs L: 10%
Eduardo ValenciaR	34.2% vs L: 33.3%	30% vs L: 25%	0%	41.7% vs L: 42.9%	10% vs L: 14.3%
Zach McKinstryL	7.5% vs L: 12.5%	12.9% vs L: 0%	26.1% vs L: 22.2%	23.5% vs L: 25%	7.1% vs L: 4.7%
Spencer TorkelsonR	21% vs L: 16.1%	32.3% vs L: 18.8%	49.4% vs L: 27.3%	41.7% vs L: 43.8%	11.8% vs L: 5.1%
Max ClarkL	9.2% vs L: 11.1%	0%	28.6%	21.7% vs L: 14.3%	9.1% vs L: 15%
Javier BáezR	20% vs L: 18.2%	13.6%	36.2%	28.6% vs L: 31.4%	11.8% vs L: 25%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Spencer Torkelson	9	0	0%	.625
Javier Báez	7	1	14.3%	.333
Gleyber Torres	6	0	0%	.333
Zach McKinstry	4	0	0%	.333
Dillon Dingler	2	1	50%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Gleyber Torres	21.2%	21.9%	18.9%	87.7%
Hao-Yu Lee	31.6%	30.1%	25%	72.6%
Kevin McGonigle	19.6%	23.7%	10.4%	87.4%
Dillon Dingler	33.2%	29.5%	26.5%	77.9%
Eduardo Valencia	34.4%	40%	36.4%	72.1%
Zach McKinstry	29%	35.6%	23.3%	81.2%
Spencer Torkelson	22.5%	20%	37.5%	66.7%
Max Clark	32.3%	27.6%	20.5%	85.3%
Javier Báez	43.2%	46.9%	22.7%	67.4%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-18	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.2	3
2026-09-04	Detroit Tigers	3.9	1

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 16.7%

!Whiff rate is 22%

!CSW rate is 26.1%

!Opponent K% is 21%

!Average pitch count is 43.8

!WHIP is 1.68

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Detroit Tigers	Home	2.1	1	62	1.74	—	—
2026-08-29	Kansas City Royals	Home	2	2	26	1.47	4	50%
2026-08-25	Los Angeles Angels	Away	3	2	50	1.46	6	33.3%
2026-08-23	Colorado Rockies	Away	1	1	9	1.71	1	100%
2026-08-16	San Diego Padres	Home	1	0	14	1.92	2	0%
2026-07-18	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	3.1	3	81	2.05	9	33.3%
2026-05-25	Washington Nationals	Home	4	7	83	1.5	—	—