MLB pitcher strikeout

Andrew Abbott

vs Milwaukee Brewers2026-09-05DraftKingsLHP

Projection

4.3

Ensemble: 4.2

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.8

Over 3.5

60% (6/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

16.5%

Whiff%

20.4%

CSW%

27.4%

WHIP

1.4

Avg IP

5.4

Avg pitches

91.6

Last 5 avg Ks

4.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

22.4%

Platoon K%

18.9%

Team chase

27.5%

Recent chase

30.5%

Recent contact

81.2%

Recent K% (7d)

18.7%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.4%

Opp K% vs LHP

19.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.9

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.3

Sep 5

vs MIL

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 29

@ CHC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 23

@ ARI

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 18

vs STL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 13

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 15.6

Sep 5

vs MIL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 29

@ CHC

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Aug 23

@ ARI

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 18

vs STL

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 13

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Milwaukee Brewers

No prior starts found against Milwaukee Brewers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-138	+108	+0.8	-0.8	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+106	+0.8	-0.8	—
Pinnacle	3.5	-134	+101	+0.8	-0.8	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

66.1%Line

5+ Ks

44.3%

6+ Ks

25.9%

7+ Ks

13.4%

8+ Ks

5.6%

9+ Ks

1.9%

10+ Ks

0.6%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	42.4%	11.7%	16.3%	92.2
Changeup	21%	31.6%	16.2%	86.2
Sweeper	18.4%	22%	18.5%	82.2
Curveball	13.1%	23.6%	15.4%	79.8
Cutter	5.1%	23.8%	25%	88.9

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

37.7%

2-Strike Foul%

24.8%

2-Strike Contact%

78.9%

Expected Ks

19.4

K Luck

+0.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	21	42.9%	57.1%
1-2	26	30.8%	69.2%
2-2	21	38.1%	61.9%
3-2 (full)	11	27.3%	72.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sweeper	Curveball	Cutter
Jackson ChourioR	22.9%	24.3%	19.6% vs L: 18.5%	15.5% vs L: 14.7%	14.3% vs L: 0%	22.6% vs L: 17.6%	26.5% vs L: 30%
Luis LaraS	15.2%	22.9%	7.9% vs L: 10.5%	3.4% vs L: 0%	25%	22.2% vs L: 0%	9.1% vs L: 0%
William ContrerasR	15.6%	13.5%	10.3% vs L: 10.6%	11.1% vs L: 8.3%	15.5% vs L: 20%	33.3% vs L: 52.9%	19.4% vs L: 9.1%
Andrew VaughnR	12.1%	17%	11.9% vs L: 14.7%	10.3% vs L: 8.3%	20% vs L: 16.7%	13.3% vs L: 12.5%	9.5% vs L: 0%
Garrett MitchellL	28.3%	32.2%	28.9% vs L: 32.1%	25.4% vs L: 10%	28.1% vs L: 9.1%	20.8% vs L: 40%	19.1% vs L: 16.7%
Joey OrtizR	21.1%	16.2%	21.5% vs L: 18.2%	16.7% vs L: 18.2%	10% vs L: 16.7%	7.1% vs L: 0%	0% vs L: 0%
Cooper PrattR	24.5%	17.6%	16.5% vs L: 21.7%	9.1% vs L: 6.7%	22.2% vs L: 33.3%	10% vs L: 0%	9.1% vs L: 50%
Gary SánchezR	18%	23%	12.5% vs L: 3.8%	17% vs L: 15.2%	10% vs L: 20%	20.8% vs L: 28.6%	9.5% vs L: 14.3%
David HamiltonL	24.6%	20.5%	14.4% vs L: 28.6%	17%	19.4% vs L: 50%	28% vs L: 0%	20.7% vs L: 0%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sweeper	Curveball	Cutter
Jackson ChourioR	23.1% vs L: 32.1%	21% vs L: 14.8%	27.2% vs L: 0%	30.3% vs L: 20%	30% vs L: 28%
Luis LaraS	9.2% vs L: 0%	25% vs L: 12.5%	26.7%	27.3% vs L: 0%	18.8% vs L: 14.3%
William ContrerasR	13.9% vs L: 14.8%	22.5% vs L: 18.6%	23.1% vs L: 22.2%	33.3% vs L: 47.6%	20.4% vs L: 6.9%
Andrew VaughnR	8.6% vs L: 6.4%	27.3% vs L: 32.1%	26.5% vs L: 20%	46.7% vs L: 50%	18.2% vs L: 10.5%
Garrett MitchellL	26.1% vs L: 20%	52.9% vs L: 40%	41.3% vs L: 46.7%	31.2% vs L: 36.4%	37% vs L: 28.6%
Joey OrtizR	15.8% vs L: 18.3%	26.2% vs L: 28.6%	20.6% vs L: 9.1%	37.5% vs L: 11.1%	2.5% vs L: 0%
Cooper PrattR	15.3% vs L: 24.2%	17.5% vs L: 11.1%	27.5% vs L: 40%	12.5% vs L: 0%	17.9% vs L: 18.2%
Gary SánchezR	20.7% vs L: 11.8%	50% vs L: 50%	11.8% vs L: 0%	33.3% vs L: 47.1%	9.5% vs L: 12.5%
David HamiltonL	11.7% vs L: 14.8%	29.1%	30.4% vs L: 63.6%	32% vs L: 0%	9.5% vs L: 0%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
William Contreras	21	6	28.6%	.300
Andrew Vaughn	13	1	7.7%	.083
Joey Ortiz	12	3	25%	.167
Jackson Chourio	11	1	9.1%	.375
Gary Sánchez	10	4	40%	.111
Garrett Mitchell	3	0	0%	1.000
Cooper Pratt	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jackson Chourio	34.3%	38.5%	20.8%	78.5%
Luis Lara	23.3%	27.3%	28.6%	88.9%
William Contreras	26.1%	26.5%	17.6%	83.3%
Andrew Vaughn	22.8%	29.4%	19.4%	90%
Garrett Mitchell	25.1%	27.3%	30%	67.9%
Joey Ortiz	31.7%	36.8%	5.9%	86.4%
Cooper Pratt	30.1%	34.7%	12.9%	92.5%
Gary Sánchez	24.6%	32.3%	29.4%	55.6%
David Hamilton	29.6%	21.7%	11.4%	87.3%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	Philadelphia Phillies	5.7	8
2026-07-12	Chicago Cubs	4.8	3
2026-07-20	Seattle Mariners	5.7	6
2026-07-26	St. Louis Cardinals	4.7	4
2026-08-01	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.5	1
2026-08-06	Athletics	4.9	4
2026-08-13	Chicago White Sox	3.6	3
2026-08-18	St. Louis Cardinals	3.2	6
2026-08-23	Arizona Diamondbacks	3	6
2026-08-29	Chicago Cubs	3	1
2026-09-05	Milwaukee Brewers	4.31	5

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 16.5%

!Whiff rate is 20.4%

!CSW rate is 27.4%

!Opponent K% is 20.7%

✓Average pitch count is 91.6

!WHIP is 1.4

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	4	5	58	1.42	—	—
2026-08-29	Chicago Cubs	Away	3	1	68	1.44	8	12.5%
2026-08-23	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	6	6	88	1.4	11	54.5%
2026-08-18	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	6.1	6	98	1.4	12	50%
2026-08-13	Chicago White Sox	Away	4.1	3	93	1.42	10	30%
2026-08-06	Athletics	Home	6.2	4	88	1.39	12	33.3%
2026-08-01	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	5	1	98	1.39	12	8.3%
2026-07-26	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	6	4	100	1.38	12	33.3%
2026-07-20	Seattle Mariners	Away	6	6	100	1.4	15	40%
2026-07-12	Chicago Cubs	Home	4	3	79	1.42	10	30%