MLB pitcher strikeout

George Kirby

vs Athletics2026-09-05FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.5

Ensemble: 5.1

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+1.0

Under 5.5

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Under 5.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

15.1%

Whiff%

21.3%

CSW%

25.7%

WHIP

1.31

Avg IP

5.3

Avg pitches

87.5

Last 5 avg Ks

3.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

17.9%

Platoon K%

20.1%

Team chase

30.6%

Recent chase

31.1%

Recent contact

78.3%

Recent K% (7d)

23.6%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

23%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.5

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 4.5

Aug 31

@ BOS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 25

vs PHI

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 20

@ MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 14

@ HOU

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 8

vs TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

18.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

18.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 18.5Model 15.8

Aug 31

@ BOS

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 25

vs PHI

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 20

@ MIL

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Aug 14

@ HOU

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 8

vs TB

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Athletics

No prior starts found against Athletics.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-1.0	+1.0	Best Under
DraftKings	5.5	-104	-123	-1.0	+1.0	—
Pinnacle	5.5	-111	-119	-1.0	+1.0	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

65%

5+ Ks

44.2%

6+ Ks

24.8%Line

7+ Ks

11.2%

8+ Ks

9+ Ks

1.7%

10+ Ks

0.5%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sweeper	29.8%	23.7%	16.9%	87.6
4-Seam Fastball	25.8%	22.2%	20.2%	96.7
Sinker	21.5%	8.9%	13%	96.8
Knuckle Curve	10.2%	29.1%	14.3%	84.3
Changeup	5.2%	27.3%	26.7%	88.8
Cutter	4.2%	39.3%	0%	93
Splitter	3.3%	28.6%	19%	87.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

29%

2-Strike Foul%

27.2%

2-Strike Contact%

84.5%

Expected Ks

24.7

K Luck

-6.7

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	34	32.4%	67.6%
1-2	36	27.8%	72.2%
2-2	30	13.3%	86.7%
3-2 (full)	18	5.6%	94.4%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Knuckle Curve	Changeup	Cutter	Splitter
Henry BolteR	33.6%	23.5%	26% vs R: 27.3%	27.5% vs R: 24%	26.5% vs R: 17.8%	14.3% vs R: 20%	17.3% vs R: 16%	25% vs R: 33.3%	27.8% vs R: 23.1%
Jeff McNeilL	7.1%	12.4%	4.8% vs R: 8.3%	9.8% vs R: 10.2%	11.1% vs R: 12.8%	0% vs R: 0%	6.3% vs R: 7.7%	13.3% vs R: 14.8%	14.3% vs R: 14.3%
Zack GelofR	25%	25.3%	29% vs R: 27.6%	25% vs R: 25.9%	11.9% vs R: 8.2%	50% vs R: 58.3%	29.3% vs R: 33.3%	7.1% vs R: 8.3%	21.1% vs R: 22.2%
Lawrence ButlerL	28.8%	25.2%	20% vs R: 26.7%	19.3% vs R: 18.9%	24.3% vs R: 17.1%	20% vs R: 20%	8.3% vs R: 10.3%	20.6% vs R: 25%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%
Jonah HeimS	17.8%	18.5%	12% vs R: 15%	18.3% vs R: 18.4%	13.9% vs R: 12.5%	0%	16.4% vs R: 12.5%	28.6% vs R: 30%	22.2% vs R: 25%
Max MuncyR	29.7%	33.3%	28.9% vs R: 26.5%	23% vs R: 19.6%	17.5% vs R: 18.8%	50%	25% vs R: 21.4%	21.4% vs R: 25%	38.5% vs R: 41.7%
Donovan WaltonL	11.8%	16.6%	16% vs R: 8.7%	9% vs R: 9.5%	3.6% vs R: 3.7%	25% vs R: 25%	5% vs R: 5.1%	25% vs R: 26.7%	20% vs R: 20%
Alika WilliamsR	20.4%	27.1%	40.7% vs R: 45.5%	10.2% vs R: 4.5%	20% vs R: 21.4%	—	14.8%	40% vs R: 50%	0%
Denzel ClarkeR	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Knuckle Curve	Changeup	Cutter	Splitter
Henry BolteR	37.1% vs R: 35.7%	28% vs R: 26.1%	20.7% vs R: 21.4%	42.9% vs R: 40%	35.5% vs R: 47.4%	26.5% vs R: 20.8%	44% vs R: 37.5%
Jeff McNeilL	22.9% vs R: 25%	10.4% vs R: 9.1%	4.8% vs R: 4.8%	0% vs R: 0%	18.1% vs R: 19.6%	17% vs R: 15.9%	16.7% vs R: 14.9%
Zack GelofR	32% vs R: 30.4%	30.5% vs R: 28.6%	13.2% vs R: 11.5%	46.2% vs R: 50%	35% vs R: 42.1%	26.8% vs R: 27.6%	47.4% vs R: 50%
Lawrence ButlerL	23.6% vs R: 22.2%	23.4% vs R: 24%	12.1% vs R: 16.2%	25% vs R: 25%	28.3% vs R: 26%	21.3% vs R: 19.3%	30.6% vs R: 30.6%
Jonah HeimS	15.9% vs R: 20%	15.3% vs R: 14.3%	13.4% vs R: 17.8%	20%	23.9% vs R: 21.1%	22.8% vs R: 27.3%	21.1% vs R: 28.6%
Max MuncyR	38.6% vs R: 39.2%	25% vs R: 15.8%	15.4% vs R: 16%	20%	36.2% vs R: 33.3%	29.2% vs R: 23.1%	60% vs R: 60%
Donovan WaltonL	38.5% vs R: 33.3%	10.6% vs R: 11.1%	7.7% vs R: 7.7%	42.9% vs R: 42.9%	37.9% vs R: 39.3%	23.5% vs R: 20.7%	39.3% vs R: 39.3%
Alika WilliamsR	46.4% vs R: 50%	15.4% vs R: 20.5%	7.2% vs R: 5%	—	18.6%	16.7% vs R: 12.5%	20%
Denzel ClarkeR	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jonah Heim	19	3	15.8%	.211
Lawrence Butler	9	2	22.2%	.222
Jeff McNeil	7	0	0%	.500
Zack Gelof	7	1	14.3%	.571

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Henry Bolte	28.2%	21.4%	25.9%	71.9%
Jeff McNeil	39.5%	44.3%	12%	87.1%
Zack Gelof	26.2%	26%	24%	70.2%
Lawrence Butler	24.3%	20.3%	32.7%	76.3%
Jonah Heim	33.4%	39.4%	15.4%	90.1%
Max Muncy	29.3%	27.3%	20.7%	76.6%
Donovan Walton	27.3%	28.9%	12.5%	72.3%
Alika Williams	36.5%	41%	20.7%	80%
Denzel Clarke	N/A	N/A	N/A	80%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	Miami Marlins	4.3	7
2026-07-20	Cincinnati Reds	6.3	6
2026-07-27	Texas Rangers	5.6	3
2026-08-02	Minnesota Twins	5.6	3
2026-08-08	Tampa Bay Rays	4.4	2
2026-08-14	Houston Astros	5	2
2026-08-20	Milwaukee Brewers	3.8	3
2026-08-25	Philadelphia Phillies	3.2	9
2026-08-31	Boston Red Sox	4.2	2
2026-09-05	Athletics	4.5	5

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 15.1%

!Whiff rate is 21.3%

!CSW rate is 25.7%

!Opponent K% is 22.6%

!Average pitch count is 87.5

!WHIP is 1.31

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	Boston Red Sox	Away	5	2	86	1.35	13	15.4%
2026-08-25	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	7.2	9	92	1.33	13	69.2%
2026-08-20	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	3.1	3	84	1.36	12	25%
2026-08-14	Houston Astros	Away	4.2	2	99	1.31	10	20%
2026-08-08	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	5	2	99	1.27	14	14.3%
2026-08-02	Minnesota Twins	Home	7	3	94	1.28	11	27.3%
2026-07-27	Texas Rangers	Away	4	3	66	1.3	10	30%
2026-07-20	Cincinnati Reds	Home	6	6	80	1.28	13	46.2%
2026-07-08	Miami Marlins	Away	6	7	86	1.32	12	58.3%
2026-06-29	Los Angeles Angels	Home	8	7	100	1.32	11	63.6%