MLB pitcher strikeout

Andre Pallante

@ Colorado Rockies2026-09-04PinnacleRHP

Projection

4.0

Ensemble: 4.1

Market line

2.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+1.5

Over 2.5

60% (6/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Over 2.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

80/100

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Pitcher K%

18.5%

Whiff%

24.8%

CSW%

26.1%

WHIP

1.23

Avg IP

5.8

Avg pitches

94.4

Last 5 avg Ks

4.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

15.1%

Team chase

36.8%

Recent chase

35.9%

Recent contact

75.4%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

23.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

22.8%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

4.0

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 4.0

Aug 17

@ CIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 11

vs PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 5

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Jul 30

vs CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Jul 25

vs CIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

11.5

DraftKings

Model projection

13.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

100%

10 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+6.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

100% (10/10)· 10O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

11.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 11.5Model 13.8

Aug 17

@ CIN

OVER

Outs

+6.5

Aug 11

vs PHI

OVER

Outs

+6.5

Aug 5

@ NYY

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Jul 30

vs CHC

OVER

Outs

+7.5

Jul 25

vs CIN

OVER

Outs

+9.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Colorado Rockies

No prior starts found against Colorado Rockies.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	2.5	-182	+135	+1.5	-1.5	Best Over
FanDuel	2.5	-162	+126	+1.5	-1.5	—
DraftKings	3.5	+137	-175	+0.5	-0.5	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

58.3%

5+ Ks

37.4%

6+ Ks

19.3%

7+ Ks

8.2%

8+ Ks

2.9%

9+ Ks

0.9%

10+ Ks

0.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	33.7%	11.3%	11.5%	95.3
Slider	30.1%	30.2%	18%	87.8
Knuckle Curve	17.4%	35%	17.9%	79.4
Sinker	16.7%	7.8%	4.7%	95.7
Splitter	2.1%	33.3%	16.7%	89.8

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

37.3%

2-Strike Foul%

14.2%

2-Strike Contact%

70.8%

Expected Ks

19.1

K Luck

+2.9

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	15	60%	40%
1-2	28	32.1%	67.9%
2-2	39	28.2%	71.8%
3-2 (full)	27	33.3%	66.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Knuckle Curve	Sinker	Splitter
Jake McCarthyL	16.4%	16.4%	16% vs R: 17.2%	27.3% vs R: 28.9%	25% vs R: 40%	22.7% vs R: 16%	12.5% vs R: 13.3%
Mickey MoniakL	34.5%	23.3%	27.7% vs R: 25.6%	25% vs R: 17.9%	26.7% vs R: 26.7%	9.4% vs R: 4.8%	26.1% vs R: 27.3%
Hunter GoodmanR	36.2%	31.3%	29% vs R: 30.8%	26.9% vs R: 26.4%	30% vs R: 28.6%	20.4% vs R: 28.1%	23.8% vs R: 20%
TJ RumfieldL	12.8%	14.4%	12% vs R: 10.8%	18.8% vs R: 18.9%	14.3% vs R: 15.4%	13% vs R: 10.7%	12.5% vs R: 13.6%
Cole CarriggS	26.6%	17.8%	14.9% vs R: 22.2%	17.1% vs R: 13%	33.3%	20.6% vs R: 19%	15.8% vs R: 23.1%
Connor NorbyR	26%	31.6%	28.2% vs R: 32.1%	38.6% vs R: 37.1%	33.3% vs R: 50%	12.5% vs R: 8.7%	15.8% vs R: 21.4%
Troy JohnstonL	15.8%	17.8%	16.4% vs R: 16.9%	14.9% vs R: 16%	50% vs R: 50%	13.3% vs R: 13.6%	14.3% vs R: 14.3%
Adael AmadorS	22.2%	23.1%	30.8% vs R: 30%	—	—	—	—
Zac VeenL	—	37.1%	47.1% vs R: 46.7%	60%	—	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	20% vs R: 20%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Knuckle Curve	Sinker	Splitter
Jake McCarthyL	11.2% vs R: 12.2%	34.6% vs R: 35%	44.4% vs R: 46.7%	11.6% vs R: 9.2%	29.2% vs R: 29.2%
Mickey MoniakL	24.1% vs R: 23.4%	31.1% vs R: 27.8%	33.3% vs R: 35.3%	10.7% vs R: 9.3%	37.2% vs R: 38.1%
Hunter GoodmanR	28.7% vs R: 31.4%	38.7% vs R: 38.3%	50% vs R: 55.6%	18.5% vs R: 17.6%	35% vs R: 23.1%
TJ RumfieldL	10.9% vs R: 10.3%	34.8% vs R: 37%	16.7% vs R: 17.6%	6% vs R: 4.4%	29.7% vs R: 31.4%
Cole CarriggS	17.9% vs R: 20%	29.6% vs R: 27.3%	0%	12.6% vs R: 10.2%	23.1% vs R: 21.1%
Connor NorbyR	30.5% vs R: 37%	45.2% vs R: 49.2%	33.3% vs R: 40%	10.1% vs R: 8.1%	23.5% vs R: 30.8%
Troy JohnstonL	25.4% vs R: 26.1%	20.2% vs R: 22%	27.3% vs R: 23.8%	13.9% vs R: 18%	24.1% vs R: 24.1%
Adael AmadorS	19% vs R: 36.4%	—	—	—	—
Zac VeenL	53.6% vs R: 53.8%	36.4%	—	50% vs R: 60%	60% vs R: 60%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Adael Amador	4	1	25%	.500
Mickey Moniak	3	1	33.3%	.333
Hunter Goodman	3	0	0%	.667
Troy Johnston	3	0	0%	1.000
Jake McCarthy	2	1	50%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jake McCarthy	41.5%	41.2%	13.5%	86.4%
Mickey Moniak	43%	49.3%	27.5%	69.8%
Hunter Goodman	39.4%	40%	31.6%	69.7%
TJ Rumfield	29.2%	22.8%	10.6%	85.7%
Cole Carrigg	34.8%	40.5%	25%	80.7%
Connor Norby	28.9%	23%	27.1%	78.1%
Troy Johnston	36.9%	37.7%	24%	74%
Adael Amador	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Zac Veen	41%	32.4%	31.2%	58.8%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	Milwaukee Brewers	2.5	2
2026-07-19	Arizona Diamondbacks	2.8	3
2026-07-25	Cincinnati Reds	4.3	8
2026-07-30	Chicago Cubs	4.4	3
2026-08-05	New York Yankees	4.9	4
2026-08-11	Philadelphia Phillies	2.1	2
2026-08-17	Cincinnati Reds	2.7	5
2026-09-04	Colorado Rockies	4.01	1

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 18.5%

!Whiff rate is 24.8%

!CSW rate is 26.1%

!Opponent K% is 22.3%

✓Average pitch count is 94.4

!WHIP is 1.23

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-17	Cincinnati Reds	Away	6	5	88	1.24	12	41.7%
2026-08-11	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	6	2	97	1.22	13	15.4%
2026-08-05	New York Yankees	Away	5.1	4	103	1.22	12	33.3%
2026-07-30	Chicago Cubs	Home	6.1	3	90	1.22	10	30%
2026-07-25	Cincinnati Reds	Home	7	8	90	1.21	12	66.7%
2026-07-19	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	5.1	3	88	1.26	10	30%
2026-07-09	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	5	2	97	1.26	12	16.7%
2026-07-03	Chicago Cubs	Away	5.2	2	102	1.22	10	20%
2026-06-27	Miami Marlins	Home	6.2	4	98	1.23	12	33.3%
2026-06-22	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	6	2	85	1.19	9	22.2%