MLB pitcher strikeout

Matthew Liberatore

@ Colorado Rockies2026-09-05DraftKingsLHP

Projection

5.9

Ensemble: 5.5

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.4

Over 4.5

80% (8/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

DraftKings

Confidence

82/100

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Pitcher K%

30.1%

Whiff%

26.2%

CSW%

31.1%

WHIP

1.49

Avg IP

5.1

Avg pitches

91.8

Last 5 avg Ks

6.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

26.5%

Team chase

36.3%

Recent chase

35.6%

Recent contact

80.4%

Recent K% (7d)

20.8%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.4%

Opp K% vs LHP

25.2%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.2

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.7

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

80% (8/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 5.9

Sep 5

@ COL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 30

vs PIT

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Aug 25

vs BAL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 19

@ CIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Aug 14

@ CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.5

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-2.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 3U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 16.5

Sep 5

@ COL

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Aug 30

vs PIT

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 25

vs BAL

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Aug 19

@ CIN

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 14

@ CHC

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Colorado Rockies

No prior starts found against Colorado Rockies.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	-164	+128	+1.4	-1.4	Best Over
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	+0.4	-0.4	—
Pinnacle	5.5	+116	-155	+0.4	-0.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

89.2%

5+ Ks

75.9%Line

6+ Ks

57.9%

7+ Ks

39.4%

8+ Ks

23.1%

9+ Ks

11.7%

10+ Ks

5.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Slider	28.8%	36.6%	28.9%	85.8
4-Seam Fastball	28.4%	13.1%	18.7%	94.3
Curveball	18.7%	40.5%	23.4%	79.8
Changeup	11.9%	15.5%	5.9%	88.4
Sinker	7.2%	7.3%	21.7%	94.2
Cutter	4.2%	15%	—	90.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

49.3%

2-Strike Foul%

22.1%

2-Strike Contact%

76.8%

Expected Ks

33.9

K Luck

+0.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	20	70%	30%
1-2	33	45.5%	54.5%
2-2	34	44.1%	55.9%
3-2 (full)	26	34.6%	65.4%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Slider	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Changeup	Sinker	Cutter
Jake McCarthyL	16.3%	16.5%	27.3% vs L: 25.6%	16.7% vs L: 11.5%	6.4% vs L: 0%	16.7% vs L: 11.1%	22.7% vs L: 31.6%	27.3% vs L: 14.3%
Connor NorbyR	26%	31%	37.8% vs L: 44.4%	28.2% vs L: 20.9%	29.4% vs L: 20%	25% vs L: 19.4%	12.5% vs L: 17.6%	8.7% vs L: 0%
Hunter GoodmanR	36%	31%	26.6% vs L: 28.6%	29% vs L: 25.7%	30.6% vs L: 39.1%	23.9% vs L: 27.1%	19.6% vs L: 5.9%	5.9% vs L: 0%
TJ RumfieldL	12.7%	14.3%	18.8% vs L: 18.8%	11.9% vs L: 15.4%	15.8% vs L: 0%	11.1% vs L: 28.6%	13% vs L: 16.7%	10.7% vs L: 0%
Cole CarriggS	26.6%	17.9%	17.1% vs L: 22.2%	14.9% vs L: 9.8%	28.6% vs L: 42.9%	19.7% vs L: 35%	20.6% vs L: 23.1%	19% vs L: 25%
Jordan BeckR	34.7%	25.4%	21.9% vs L: 22.2%	21.7% vs L: 24.4%	17.6% vs L: 14.3%	30.4% vs L: 37.5%	40% vs L: 50%	33.3% vs L: 100%
Troy JohnstonL	15.6%	17.6%	14.6% vs L: 13.6%	16.2% vs L: 14.3%	24.1% vs L: 16.7%	19.4%	13.3% vs L: 12.5%	10% vs L: 0%
Adael AmadorS	20%	18.8%	—	30.8% vs L: 33.3%	—	—	—	—
Ezequiel TovarR	31.4%	22.6%	16% vs L: 21.7%	20.8% vs L: 23.3%	27.3% vs L: 20%	25% vs L: 21.9%	9.5% vs L: 0%	11.8% vs L: 0%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Slider	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Changeup	Sinker	Cutter
Jake McCarthyL	34.4% vs L: 34.3%	11.2% vs L: 6.9%	20.3% vs L: 13.3%	25.2% vs L: 14.3%	11.6% vs L: 13.7%	16.9% vs L: 27.3%
Connor NorbyR	44.8% vs L: 31.6%	30.4% vs L: 19.7%	54.5% vs L: 50%	36.1% vs L: 40.9%	9.9% vs L: 17.4%	10.9% vs L: 10.5%
Hunter GoodmanR	39.2% vs L: 40.7%	28.6% vs L: 24.2%	40.9% vs L: 40%	38.1% vs L: 42.4%	18.8% vs L: 21.2%	24.6% vs L: 30%
TJ RumfieldL	34.5% vs L: 32.4%	10.8% vs L: 12.9%	28.1% vs L: 0%	18.8% vs L: 25%	5.9% vs L: 7.6%	13.8% vs L: 10.5%
Cole CarriggS	29.6% vs L: 31.2%	17.6% vs L: 16%	47.6% vs L: 44.4%	26.6% vs L: 30.8%	12.6% vs L: 15.8%	18.2% vs L: 28.6%
Jordan BeckR	40.4% vs L: 21.7%	17.9% vs L: 18.9%	27.3% vs L: 25%	43.6% vs L: 44.8%	17.1% vs L: 30.8%	30.8% vs L: 16.7%
Troy JohnstonL	20.2% vs L: 18.5%	25.2% vs L: 22.6%	30% vs L: 44.4%	25%	13.8% vs L: 6.7%	10.2% vs L: 0%
Adael AmadorS	—	16.7% vs L: 0%	—	—	—	—
Ezequiel TovarR	28.8% vs L: 31.6%	22% vs L: 20.3%	32.5% vs L: 28.6%	37.2% vs L: 35.9%	10.5% vs L: 10.7%	21% vs L: 15.8%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Ezequiel Tovar	6	2	33.3%	.500
Hunter Goodman	5	1	20%	.400
Jordan Beck	4	1	25%	.250
Jake McCarthy	3	0	0%	.667
TJ Rumfield	3	0	0%	1.000
Cole Carrigg	3	0	0%	.667

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jake McCarthy	41.2%	39.4%	14%	85.3%
Connor Norby	29.8%	25%	25%	78.6%
Hunter Goodman	39.1%	38%	27.9%	69.3%
TJ Rumfield	28.9%	22.1%	9.6%	86.5%
Cole Carrigg	34.8%	39.4%	24.4%	78.9%
Jordan Beck	35.8%	50%	40%	72.1%
Troy Johnston	36.7%	36.5%	20.7%	76.8%
Adael Amador	N/A	N/A	N/A	100%
Ezequiel Tovar	44%	34.3%	28.6%	75.9%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Atlanta Braves	3.9	6
2026-07-21	Los Angeles Angels	4	7
2026-07-27	Chicago Cubs	5.3	5
2026-08-02	Toronto Blue Jays	4.2	7
2026-08-08	Colorado Rockies	5.2	3
2026-08-14	Chicago Cubs	5.6	6
2026-08-19	Cincinnati Reds	6	9
2026-08-25	Baltimore Orioles	6.3	7
2026-08-30	Pittsburgh Pirates	7.3	9
2026-09-05	Colorado Rockies	5.88	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 30.1%

!Whiff rate is 26.2%

✓CSW rate is 31.1%

!Opponent K% is 22.3%

✓Average pitch count is 91.8

!WHIP is 1.49

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Colorado Rockies	Away	4	3	55	1.44	—	—
2026-08-30	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	5.2	9	107	1.47	16	56.2%
2026-08-25	Baltimore Orioles	Home	4	7	91	1.47	12	58.3%
2026-08-19	Cincinnati Reds	Away	6	9	100	1.44	14	64.3%
2026-08-14	Chicago Cubs	Away	5.1	6	95	1.48	15	40%
2026-08-08	Colorado Rockies	Home	5	3	94	1.52	12	25%
2026-08-02	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	6	7	85	1.49	12	58.3%
2026-07-27	Chicago Cubs	Home	3.2	5	67	1.56	8	62.5%
2026-07-21	Los Angeles Angels	Away	5.1	7	95	1.52	14	50%
2026-07-11	Atlanta Braves	Home	6	6	71	1.48	12	50%