MLB pitcher strikeout

Shane Baz

vs Boston Red Sox2026-09-04DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.9

Ensemble: 5.3

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.4

Over 4.5

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

23.5%

Whiff%

26.3%

CSW%

27.4%

WHIP

1.36

Avg IP

5.7

Avg pitches

88.5

Last 5 avg Ks

5.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

34.7%

Platoon K%

21%

Team chase

28.2%

Recent chase

30.7%

Recent contact

80%

Recent K% (7d)

21.6%

Opp K% vs RHP

18.1%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 4.9

Sep 4

vs BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 29

@ ATH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 23

vs TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 18

vs NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Aug 12

@ MIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.6

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 16.5Model 15.8

Sep 4

vs BOS

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 29

@ ATH

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 23

vs TB

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 18

vs NYY

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 12

@ MIN

UNDER

Outs

-7.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Boston Red Sox

No prior starts found against Boston Red Sox.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	-154	+121	+0.4	-0.4	Best Over
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	+0.4	-0.4	—
Pinnacle	4.5	-153	+115	+0.4	-0.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

73.5%

5+ Ks

53.9%Line

6+ Ks

34.5%

7+ Ks

18.9%

8+ Ks

9.3%

9+ Ks

3.6%

10+ Ks

1.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	34.5%	14.6%	19.2%	95.7
Knuckle Curve	32.3%	29.2%	19.3%	85.4
Cutter	12.5%	27.8%	18.2%	89.8
Sinker	11.5%	16.5%	9.5%	95.2
Changeup	9.2%	20.6%	11.4%	87.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

48.3%

2-Strike Foul%

23.3%

2-Strike Contact%

75%

Expected Ks

23.4

K Luck

+4.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	20	65%	35%
1-2	40	42.5%	57.5%
2-2	27	40.7%	59.3%
3-2 (full)	12	58.3%	41.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Knuckle Curve	Cutter	Sinker	Changeup
Roman AnthonyL	19.5%	25%	9.3% vs R: 10%	12.5% vs R: 12.5%	28.6% vs R: 33.3%	31.6% vs R: 50%	27.8% vs R: 31.2%
Mickey GasperS	31.8%	11.9%	7.9% vs R: 8.8%	0% vs R: 0%	36.4% vs R: 30%	10% vs R: 10%	35% vs R: 21.4%
Adley RutschmanS	12%	17.8%	12.3% vs R: 12.9%	15.4% vs R: 18.2%	23.5% vs R: 18.8%	24.3% vs R: 22.2%	10% vs R: 10.2%
Wilyer AbreuL	16.6%	21.9%	18% vs R: 18.3%	23.1% vs R: 27.3%	18% vs R: 12.5%	7.1% vs R: 11.9%	26.4% vs R: 29.5%
Nick SogardS	19.5%	17.7%	15.4% vs R: 12.8%	—	27.3% vs R: 27.3%	22.2% vs R: 23.1%	12.5% vs R: 14.7%
Caleb DurbinR	12.6%	13.7%	19.9% vs R: 20.2%	0% vs R: 0%	25% vs R: 16.7%	10.7% vs R: 12.9%	13% vs R: 16%
Jarren DuranL	23.8%	28.5%	25.6% vs R: 23.9%	53.3% vs R: 53.3%	26.9% vs R: 33.3%	12.2% vs R: 10.7%	21% vs R: 21.3%
Trevor StoryR	32.7%	31.5%	27% vs R: 27.5%	25% vs R: 25%	25% vs R: 25%	20.8% vs R: 27.8%	23.1% vs R: 27.3%
Eli WhiteR	25.7%	16.9%	26.5% vs R: 30%	0%	14.3% vs R: 0%	11.1% vs R: 18.2%	18.2% vs R: 50%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Knuckle Curve	Cutter	Sinker	Changeup
Roman AnthonyL	10.3% vs R: 12.1%	11.1% vs R: 11.1%	9.1% vs R: 10%	14.6% vs R: 23.5%	44.4% vs R: 46.2%
Mickey GasperS	6.8% vs R: 7.2%	0% vs R: 0%	15.4% vs R: 13%	9.8% vs R: 11.1%	29.4% vs R: 23.1%
Adley RutschmanS	8.2% vs R: 8.7%	25% vs R: 25%	17.6% vs R: 15.4%	11.9% vs R: 12.5%	18.3% vs R: 20.3%
Wilyer AbreuL	22.2% vs R: 20.8%	33.3% vs R: 36.4%	16.3% vs R: 9.3%	13.7% vs R: 14.9%	32.9% vs R: 33.8%
Nick SogardS	10.1% vs R: 8.4%	—	23.1% vs R: 25%	13.9% vs R: 13.3%	24.1% vs R: 26.2%
Caleb DurbinR	12.7% vs R: 14.2%	0% vs R: 0%	12.7% vs R: 14%	6.8% vs R: 6.9%	30% vs R: 23.8%
Jarren DuranL	27.5% vs R: 25.7%	50% vs R: 50%	21.2% vs R: 22.7%	13.1% vs R: 14.3%	34.6% vs R: 35%
Trevor StoryR	25.9% vs R: 27.4%	37.5% vs R: 37.5%	15.4% vs R: 6.7%	15.2% vs R: 15.4%	44.7% vs R: 58.3%
Eli WhiteR	21.1% vs R: 19.4%	0%	18.5% vs R: 11.1%	13.5% vs R: 15.2%	37.5% vs R: 28.6%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jarren Duran	21	5	23.8%	.211
Wilyer Abreu	15	6	40%	.231
Trevor Story	13	6	46.2%	.250
Adley Rutschman	7	1	14.3%	.143
Mickey Gasper	6	1	16.7%	.200
Roman Anthony	5	0	0%	.250
Caleb Durbin	5	0	0%	.200

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Roman Anthony	N/A	25.6%	20.8%	78.6%
Mickey Gasper	17.6%	18.3%	13.2%	81.1%
Adley Rutschman	25.1%	32.4%	19.2%	87%
Wilyer Abreu	30.7%	32.8%	29.3%	74.1%
Nick Sogard	23.3%	28.4%	21.4%	80%
Caleb Durbin	28.9%	23.4%	14.3%	78.4%
Jarren Duran	35.2%	30.1%	22%	73.8%
Trevor Story	N/A	41.4%	25%	85.7%
Eli White	36.4%	44.1%	15.8%	81%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	Chicago Cubs	4.3	3
2026-07-12	Kansas City Royals	4.8	9
2026-07-20	Boston Red Sox	5.5	6
2026-07-26	Atlanta Braves	5.8	2
2026-08-01	Philadelphia Phillies	5.5	4
2026-08-07	Texas Rangers	5.1	9
2026-08-12	Minnesota Twins	5.5	2
2026-08-18	New York Yankees	5.2	10
2026-08-23	Tampa Bay Rays	5	3
2026-08-29	Athletics	5.3	4
2026-09-04	Boston Red Sox	4.92	6

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 23.5%

!Whiff rate is 26.3%

!CSW rate is 27.4%

!Opponent K% is 20.7%

!Average pitch count is 88.5

!WHIP is 1.36

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Boston Red Sox	Home	5.1	6	85	1.34	—	—
2026-08-29	Athletics	Away	5.2	4	84	1.35	10	40%
2026-08-23	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	5.2	3	96	1.35	10	30%
2026-08-18	New York Yankees	Home	6.1	10	104	1.35	18	55.6%
2026-08-12	Minnesota Twins	Away	3	2	65	1.36	7	28.6%
2026-08-07	Texas Rangers	Away	8	9	93	1.32	13	69.2%
2026-08-01	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	6.1	4	99	1.37	13	30.8%
2026-07-26	Atlanta Braves	Home	4.1	2	90	1.39	12	16.7%
2026-07-20	Boston Red Sox	Away	6	6	77	1.37	10	60%
2026-07-12	Kansas City Royals	Home	4.2	9	104	1.39	16	56.2%