MLB pitcher strikeout

Logan Gilbert

vs Athletics2026-09-04DraftKingsRHP

Projection

5.5

Ensemble: 6.3

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.0

Under 6.5

30% (3/10)· 3U streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

93/100

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Pitcher K%

23.3%

Whiff%

25.7%

CSW%

27.6%

WHIP

Avg IP

5.8

Avg pitches

95.4

Last 5 avg Ks

5.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

30%

Platoon K%

26%

Team chase

31%

Recent chase

33.1%

Recent contact

76.5%

Recent K% (7d)

21.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.7%

Opp K% vs LHP

23%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.5

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 3U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 6.5Model 5.5

Aug 30

@ TOR

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 24

vs PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 19

@ MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 13

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 7

vs TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

18.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

18.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 4U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

18.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 18.5Model 16.2

Aug 30

@ TOR

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 24

vs PHI

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 19

@ MIL

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 13

@ NYY

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 7

vs TB

OVER

Outs

+1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Athletics

No prior starts found against Athletics.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	6.5	-121	-105	-1.0	+1.0	Best Under
FanDuel	6.5	-120	-106	-1.0	+1.0	—
Pinnacle	6.5	-144	+109	-1.0	+1.0	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

79.6%

5+ Ks

62%

6+ Ks

41.2%

7+ Ks

24.8%Line

8+ Ks

12.4%

9+ Ks

5.1%

10+ Ks

1.9%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	46.5%	19.6%	18.5%	96.8
Slider	25.9%	30.8%	22.4%	87.2
Splitter	13.3%	40.8%	20%	83
Changeup	7.1%	26.7%	11.1%	86.1
Sweeper	4.8%	41.9%	24.3%	82.6
Cutter	1.8%	20%	—	91

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

45.8%

2-Strike Foul%

27.9%

2-Strike Contact%

74.4%

Expected Ks

28.1

K Luck

-1.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	20	55%	45%
1-2	38	52.6%	47.4%
2-2	32	34.4%	65.6%
3-2 (full)	16	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Splitter	Changeup	Sweeper	Cutter
Henry BolteR	33.8%	23%	27% vs R: 22.9%	25% vs R: 22.2%	31.2% vs R: 27.3%	17.6% vs R: 16%	26% vs R: 27.3%	25% vs R: 33.3%
Jeff McNeilL	7.1%	11.9%	9.8% vs R: 10.2%	18.8% vs R: 25%	12.1% vs R: 12.1%	4.8% vs R: 5.9%	4.8% vs R: 8.3%	13.3% vs R: 14.8%
Zack GelofR	25.3%	25.3%	24.8% vs R: 25.6%	13.3% vs R: 14.9%	22.2% vs R: 23.5%	30% vs R: 33.3%	30% vs R: 28.6%	7.1% vs R: 8.3%
Lawrence ButlerL	28.2%	25.2%	19.2% vs R: 18.7%	20.5% vs R: 18.8%	25% vs R: 25%	8.3% vs R: 10.3%	20% vs R: 26.7%	20% vs R: 24%
Carlos CortesL	20%	16.2%	5.9% vs R: 4.5%	16.7% vs R: 15.8%	12.5% vs R: 12.5%	12.2% vs R: 12.5%	18.2% vs R: 14.3%	18.8% vs R: 20%
Jonah HeimS	17.8%	18.4%	18.1% vs R: 18.1%	25.5% vs R: 33.3%	22.2% vs R: 25%	16.4% vs R: 12.5%	12% vs R: 15%	28.6% vs R: 30%
Max MuncyR	29.7%	33.5%	23% vs R: 19.6%	32.7% vs R: 36.1%	41.7% vs R: 45.5%	25% vs R: 21.4%	27% vs R: 24.2%	21.4% vs R: 25%
Donovan WaltonL	11.8%	16.6%	9% vs R: 9.5%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%	20% vs R: 20%	5% vs R: 5.1%	16% vs R: 8.7%	25% vs R: 26.7%
Alika WilliamsR	20.4%	28.4%	10.2% vs R: 4.5%	28.9% vs R: 20.7%	0%	15.4%	40.7% vs R: 45.5%	40% vs R: 50%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Splitter	Changeup	Sweeper	Cutter
Henry BolteR	28% vs R: 26.1%	41.6% vs R: 44.7%	45.8% vs R: 40%	35.5% vs R: 47.4%	37.1% vs R: 35.7%	26.5% vs R: 20.8%
Jeff McNeilL	10.2% vs R: 8.8%	19.8% vs R: 24%	14.9% vs R: 13%	17.7% vs R: 19.2%	22.9% vs R: 25%	17% vs R: 15.9%
Zack GelofR	30.1% vs R: 27.7%	20.7% vs R: 23.8%	44.4% vs R: 47.1%	35% vs R: 42.1%	32% vs R: 30.4%	26.8% vs R: 27.6%
Lawrence ButlerL	23.1% vs R: 23.6%	37% vs R: 38.1%	32.4% vs R: 32.4%	27.6% vs R: 25.3%	23.6% vs R: 22.2%	22.4% vs R: 20.7%
Carlos CortesL	10.1% vs R: 8.9%	28.2% vs R: 27.3%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%	24.1% vs R: 24.7%	26.5% vs R: 25%	28.6% vs R: 28.2%
Jonah HeimS	15.5% vs R: 14.7%	35.7% vs R: 41.4%	21.1% vs R: 28.6%	23.9% vs R: 21.1%	16.3% vs R: 20.7%	23.2% vs R: 28.1%
Max MuncyR	25.5% vs R: 16.7%	45.3% vs R: 49.2%	60% vs R: 60%	36.2% vs R: 33.3%	37.5% vs R: 38%	29.2% vs R: 23.1%
Donovan WaltonL	10.6% vs R: 11.1%	37.8% vs R: 37.2%	39.3% vs R: 39.3%	37.9% vs R: 39.3%	38.5% vs R: 33.3%	23.5% vs R: 20.7%
Alika WilliamsR	14% vs R: 16.7%	37.3% vs R: 34.4%	20%	18.6%	48.1% vs R: 52.4%	16.7% vs R: 12.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jonah Heim	32	11	34.4%	.207
Jeff McNeil	10	3	30%	.200
Lawrence Butler	10	2	20%	.125
Zack Gelof	8	2	25%	.375
Carlos Cortes	6	1	16.7%	.600
Max Muncy	4	2	50%	.000
Henry Bolte	3	1	33.3%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Henry Bolte	28.7%	25.8%	25.9%	70.7%
Jeff McNeil	39.3%	43.3%	8.9%	90.1%
Zack Gelof	27.4%	25.2%	28%	67.7%
Lawrence Butler	24.4%	19.5%	34%	76.8%
Carlos Cortes	32%	39.7%	33.3%	72.7%
Jonah Heim	33.5%	40.6%	14.3%	89.3%
Max Muncy	29.3%	27.8%	27.6%	72.3%
Donovan Walton	27%	29.2%	8.3%	67.4%
Alika Williams	37.5%	47.1%	24%	81.8%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Tampa Bay Rays	8.3	5
2026-07-19	San Francisco Giants	9.1	10
2026-07-26	Texas Rangers	6.8	4
2026-08-01	Minnesota Twins	7	6
2026-08-07	Tampa Bay Rays	4.9	6
2026-08-13	New York Yankees	7.9	7
2026-08-19	Milwaukee Brewers	7.8	5
2026-08-24	Philadelphia Phillies	7	5
2026-08-30	Toronto Blue Jays	6.5	4
2026-09-04	Athletics	5.47	10

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 23.3%

!Whiff rate is 25.7%

!CSW rate is 27.6%

!Opponent K% is 21.5%

✓Average pitch count is 95.4

✓WHIP is 1

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-30	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	5	4	87	1.04	11	36.4%
2026-08-24	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	5	5	102	1.02	15	33.3%
2026-08-19	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	5	5	100	1.01	13	38.5%
2026-08-13	New York Yankees	Away	6	7	95	0.99	11	63.6%
2026-08-07	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	6.2	6	95	1	9	66.7%
2026-08-01	Minnesota Twins	Home	7	6	96	0.99	13	46.2%
2026-07-26	Texas Rangers	Away	5.2	4	93	0.99	15	26.7%
2026-07-19	San Francisco Giants	Home	6	10	95	0.98	14	71.4%
2026-07-11	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	6.2	5	96	0.99	13	38.5%
2026-07-04	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	7.1	7	91	0.95	16	43.8%