MLB pitcher strikeout

Dustin May

@ Cincinnati Reds2026-09-05FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.9

Ensemble: 5.0

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.6

Under 5.5

30% (3/10)· 4U streak

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Recommendation

Under 5.5

FanDuel

Confidence

80/100

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Pitcher K%

18.2%

Whiff%

21.9%

CSW%

25%

WHIP

1.29

Avg IP

4.5

Avg pitches

75.1

Last 5 avg Ks

3.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

22.3%

Team chase

29%

Recent chase

28%

Recent contact

75.5%

Recent K% (7d)

23.7%

Opp K% vs RHP

25.9%

Opp K% vs LHP

26.5%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 4U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 4.9

Sep 5

@ CIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 30

vs TEX

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 26

@ NYM

UNDER

Strikeouts

-5.5

Aug 19

vs SEA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Aug 12

@ SD

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-2.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 4U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15.2

Sep 5

@ CIN

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 30

vs TEX

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 26

@ NYM

UNDER

Outs

-14.5

Aug 19

vs SEA

UNDER

Outs

-9.5

Aug 12

@ SD

OVER

Outs

+5.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cincinnati Reds

No prior starts found against Cincinnati Reds.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-0.6	+0.6	Best Under
Pinnacle	5.5	+103	-137	-0.6	+0.6	—
DraftKings	5.5	-108	-118	-0.6	+0.6	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

75.5%

5+ Ks

56.1%

6+ Ks

36%Line

7+ Ks

19%

8+ Ks

9.1%

9+ Ks

3.9%

10+ Ks

1.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	25.5%	18.3%	14%	96.8
Cutter	23.8%	19.7%	26.1%	93.3
Sinker	19.6%	17.8%	25.9%	96.7
Sweeper	18.3%	21.3%	17.2%	86.1
Changeup	6.4%	33.3%	23.8%	90.3
Curveball	6.4%	29.6%	23.1%	83.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

32%

2-Strike Foul%

26.5%

2-Strike Contact%

83.6%

Expected Ks

21.1

K Luck

-5.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	18	38.9%	55.6%
1-2	19	42.1%	57.9%
2-2	24	29.2%	66.7%
3-2 (full)	11	18.2%	72.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sinker	Sweeper	Changeup	Curveball
Héctor RodríguezL	42.1%	22.4%	18.8% vs R: 16.7%	0% vs R: 0%	12.5% vs R: 25%	66.7%	18.2% vs R: 12.5%	33.3% vs R: 27.3%
Elly De La CruzS	26.1%	27.4%	18.6% vs R: 18.6%	7.4% vs R: 5.3%	27.3% vs R: 32.1%	31.7% vs R: 35.1%	13.8% vs R: 10.7%	31.2% vs R: 34.8%
Sal StewartR	22.5%	20.8%	24.2% vs R: 26%	14.8% vs R: 11.8%	13.5% vs R: 13%	17.8% vs R: 16.5%	12.3% vs R: 15%	17.2% vs R: 13.9%
JJ BledayL	22.5%	20.8%	15.1% vs R: 15.7%	17.9% vs R: 19%	12.3% vs R: 19.4%	20.9% vs R: 10.5%	22% vs R: 20.7%	12.5% vs R: 12.9%
Tyler StephensonR	23.1%	28.5%	21% vs R: 22.9%	19% vs R: 6.7%	19.7% vs R: 16.3%	18.5% vs R: 20.4%	19% vs R: 31.4%	25.8% vs R: 16.7%
Eugenio SuárezR	40.8%	32.7%	21.1% vs R: 22.4%	22.2% vs R: 11.8%	28.2% vs R: 25%	26.3% vs R: 25%	22.6% vs R: 32.3%	26.8% vs R: 33.3%
Jose TrevinoR	19.2%	18.3%	22.2% vs R: 29.6%	25% vs R: 33.3%	26.1% vs R: 26.3%	16.7% vs R: 9.1%	13.3% vs R: 0%	11.1% vs R: 0%
Carlos JorgeL	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Matt McLainR	21.5%	29.2%	23.5% vs R: 26.4%	25% vs R: 25%	18.8% vs R: 18.9%	21.4% vs R: 19.2%	10.6% vs R: 7.7%	17.1% vs R: 18.5%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sinker	Sweeper	Changeup	Curveball
Héctor RodríguezL	20.8% vs R: 19.4%	11.1% vs R: 11.1%	25% vs R: 17.6%	42.9%	30.8% vs R: 26.1%	41.7% vs R: 36.4%
Elly De La CruzS	17% vs R: 19.6%	12.2% vs R: 11.1%	10.7% vs R: 12%	37.9% vs R: 40.5%	33.5% vs R: 33.3%	39.6% vs R: 46.7%
Sal StewartR	31.4% vs R: 34.1%	23.7% vs R: 23.1%	13.8% vs R: 14.6%	22.5% vs R: 23.5%	24.4% vs R: 26.2%	25.4% vs R: 23.8%
JJ BledayL	12.4% vs R: 12.9%	12.9% vs R: 6.4%	13.1% vs R: 6.2%	29.8% vs R: 13.6%	40.1% vs R: 37.7%	35% vs R: 29%
Tyler StephensonR	21.1% vs R: 23.2%	24.1% vs R: 27.3%	13.9% vs R: 15.2%	28.4% vs R: 29.8%	24.3% vs R: 38.2%	28.1% vs R: 20%
Eugenio SuárezR	29.5% vs R: 29.3%	17.4% vs R: 16.7%	12% vs R: 8.8%	48.5% vs R: 46.4%	35.8% vs R: 42.5%	50% vs R: 48%
Jose TrevinoR	21.1% vs R: 26.1%	20% vs R: 25%	7% vs R: 2.9%	24% vs R: 22.7%	26.1% vs R: 14.3%	27.3% vs R: 0%
Carlos JorgeL	—	—	—	—	—	—
Matt McLainR	25.9% vs R: 30.3%	24.4% vs R: 33.3%	10% vs R: 10.7%	28% vs R: 29.2%	27.6% vs R: 31.8%	19.4% vs R: 25%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Eugenio Suárez	9	2	22.2%	.444
JJ Bleday	8	4	50%	.167
Elly De La Cruz	3	1	33.3%	.333
Sal Stewart	3	1	33.3%	.000
Tyler Stephenson	3	0	0%	1.000
Jose Trevino	3	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Héctor Rodríguez	38.3%	39.2%	31.8%	67.4%
Elly De La Cruz	25.7%	26.4%	26.5%	80.4%
Sal Stewart	33%	38.7%	14.6%	79%
JJ Bleday	21.1%	17.6%	13%	84.4%
Tyler Stephenson	23.1%	25%	32.5%	72.2%
Eugenio Suárez	28.3%	19.8%	29.7%	64.5%
Jose Trevino	34.8%	25.6%	18.2%	76.5%
Carlos Jorge	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Matt McLain	27.8%	31.4%	28.9%	79.8%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-12	Atlanta Braves	6.1	4
2026-07-18	Arizona Diamondbacks	5.2	6
2026-07-24	Cincinnati Reds	6	8
2026-07-29	Chicago Cubs	6.2	3
2026-08-06	Pittsburgh Pirates	6.4	5
2026-08-12	San Diego Padres	4.2	6
2026-08-19	Seattle Mariners	5	1
2026-08-26	New York Mets	5.2	0
2026-08-30	Texas Rangers	3.1	4
2026-09-05	Cincinnati Reds	4.91	5

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 18.2%

!Whiff rate is 21.9%

!CSW rate is 25%

✓Opponent K% is 25.8%

!Average pitch count is 75.1

!WHIP is 1.29

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Cincinnati Reds	Away	3.2	5	56	1.32	—	—
2026-08-30	Texas Rangers	Home	4.1	4	97	1.32	13	30.8%
2026-08-26	New York Mets	Away	0.1	0	1	1.29	0	—
2026-08-19	Seattle Mariners	Home	2	1	66	1.3	10	10%
2026-08-12	San Diego Padres	Away	7	6	83	1.25	13	46.2%
2026-08-06	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	6	5	97	1.27	14	35.7%
2026-07-29	Chicago Cubs	Home	5	3	70	1.28	8	37.5%
2026-07-24	Cincinnati Reds	Home	6	8	89	1.32	12	66.7%
2026-07-18	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	5	6	98	1.32	13	46.2%
2026-07-12	Atlanta Braves	Home	4	4	84	1.26	9	44.4%