MLB pitcher strikeout

Javier Assad

@ Miami Marlins2026-09-05DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.0

Ensemble: 3.7

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.5

Over 3.5

20% (2/10)· 5U streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

18.6%

Whiff%

19.5%

CSW%

26.2%

WHIP

1.14

Avg IP

3.4

Avg pitches

52.8

Last 5 avg Ks

2.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

18.9%

Team chase

30.7%

Recent chase

29.3%

Recent contact

75.2%

Recent K% (7d)

22.3%

Opp K% vs RHP

22.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.0

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Ks

2.7

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 5U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.0

Sep 5

@ MIA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 18

vs CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 12

@ WSH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 9

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 4

vs LAD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

13.7

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Outs

10.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-3.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 4U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 13.7

Sep 5

@ MIA

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 18

vs CWS

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Aug 12

@ WSH

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 9

@ KC

UNDER

Outs

-11.5

Aug 4

vs LAD

OVER

Outs

+2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Miami Marlins

No prior starts found against Miami Marlins.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-120	-106	+0.5	-0.5	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	-122	-104	+0.5	-0.5	—
Pinnacle	3.5	-117	-113	+0.5	-0.5	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

61.3%Line

5+ Ks

40.7%

6+ Ks

22.8%

7+ Ks

10.2%

8+ Ks

3.5%

9+ Ks

1.2%

10+ Ks

0.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	42.1%	8.2%	20.2%	93.4
4-Seam Fastball	21.6%	16.7%	14%	93.5
Cutter	10.1%	9.1%	0%	89.2
Sweeper	8.1%	21.7%	9.1%	81.9
Curveball	7.7%	25%	27.8%	77.4
Changeup	7.1%	25%	12%	85.7
Slider	3.3%	23.1%	11.8%	85.8

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

37.1%

2-Strike Foul%

18.2%

2-Strike Contact%

81.4%

Expected Ks

12.8

K Luck

+0.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	14	42.9%	57.1%
1-2	23	34.8%	65.2%
2-2	17	29.4%	70.6%
3-2 (full)	9	22.2%	77.8%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sweeper	Curveball	Changeup	Slider
Kyle StowersL	30.2%	32.4%	23.7% vs R: 19%	25.2% vs R: 26.7%	20% vs R: 20%	26.7% vs R: 26.1%	23.7% vs R: 26.5%	35.3% vs R: 32.3%	30.4% vs R: 37.8%
Heriberto HernándezR	21.7%	29.8%	23.6% vs R: 20%	20.3% vs R: 24.2%	30% vs R: 23.1%	23.1% vs R: 22.9%	26.5% vs R: 23.5%	22.9% vs R: 33.3%	25.7% vs R: 26.8%
Griffin ConineL	32.6%	30.9%	8.3% vs R: 14.3%	25.8% vs R: 26.9%	16.7% vs R: 20%	40% vs R: 45.5%	23.5% vs R: 25%	36.4% vs R: 37.5%	34.9% vs R: 26.7%
Otto LopezR	13.4%	12.9%	13% vs R: 15.4%	10.5% vs R: 10.1%	10% vs R: 4.5%	9.5% vs R: 10%	25% vs R: 25%	19.6% vs R: 19.3%	11.5% vs R: 13.2%
Jakob MarseeL	27.3%	19.4%	23.6% vs R: 23.8%	16.3% vs R: 16.6%	17.1% vs R: 17.9%	24.5% vs R: 20%	17.1% vs R: 14.3%	15.5% vs R: 15.9%	31.9% vs R: 29.4%
Owen CaissieL	48.7%	35.5%	31.7% vs R: 24.1%	23.8% vs R: 22.6%	23.1% vs R: 25%	31% vs R: 34.8%	42.9% vs R: 43.9%	20.4% vs R: 19.2%	32% vs R: 35%
Joe MackL	25.8%	25.6%	31.6% vs R: 44.4%	14.5% vs R: 13.4%	26.3% vs R: 14.3%	32.4% vs R: 38.9%	6.9% vs R: 9.1%	35.7% vs R: 36%	22.5% vs R: 24.1%
Graham PauleyL	—	—	9.1%	20%	28.6%	0%	26.3%	10.3%	33.3%
Javier SanojaR	12.2%	6.3%	2.3% vs R: 3.4%	4.8% vs R: 3.3%	6.9% vs R: 0%	16.3% vs R: 10%	15.4% vs R: 15.4%	11.5% vs R: 9.1%	15.7% vs R: 14.6%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sweeper	Curveball	Changeup	Slider
Kyle StowersL	18.9% vs R: 22%	27.4% vs R: 28.3%	27.9% vs R: 23.5%	37.5% vs R: 41.9%	31.6% vs R: 34.3%	44.4% vs R: 42.9%	42.1% vs R: 49.2%
Heriberto HernándezR	20% vs R: 18%	25.3% vs R: 31.1%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	31.2% vs R: 36.8%	32.4% vs R: 28.6%	45.1% vs R: 48.7%	40.4% vs R: 38.2%
Griffin ConineL	20.4% vs R: 23.1%	29.6% vs R: 31.2%	26.7% vs R: 26.1%	51.5% vs R: 42.1%	32% vs R: 34.8%	52.5% vs R: 54.4%	46.5% vs R: 41.2%
Otto LopezR	3% vs R: 3.1%	9.3% vs R: 6.7%	12.5% vs R: 14.3%	18.9% vs R: 19.5%	29.3% vs R: 27.5%	26.1% vs R: 27.3%	24.6% vs R: 24.1%
Jakob MarseeL	10.1% vs R: 7.6%	6.7% vs R: 5.9%	10% vs R: 8.5%	37.5% vs R: 26.3%	22.6% vs R: 16%	28.7% vs R: 28%	32% vs R: 29.2%
Owen CaissieL	16.7% vs R: 15%	23.1% vs R: 24.2%	21.2% vs R: 20%	47.2% vs R: 42.9%	53.2% vs R: 54.3%	43.3% vs R: 42.5%	32.5% vs R: 31.5%
Joe MackL	11.8% vs R: 16.2%	9.8% vs R: 10.3%	20.4% vs R: 15.8%	42.1% vs R: 39.1%	15.8% vs R: 16.7%	47.1% vs R: 47%	29.2% vs R: 31.1%
Graham PauleyL	10.5%	12.1%	27.8%	16.7%	33.3%	22.2%	35%
Javier SanojaR	5.4% vs R: 4.8%	7.6% vs R: 6.1%	3.3% vs R: 0%	20.3% vs R: 15.5%	11.1% vs R: 12.5%	14.1% vs R: 4%	16.4% vs R: 16.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Kyle Stowers	3	1	33.3%	.000
Otto Lopez	3	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Kyle Stowers	31.4%	39.4%	39.5%	62.7%
Heriberto Hernández	24.2%	22.2%	22.6%	71%
Griffin Conine	31.3%	35.9%	32.5%	64.9%
Otto Lopez	28.9%	28.6%	17%	81%
Jakob Marsee	20.9%	9.9%	22%	79.2%
Owen Caissie	31.7%	24%	20%	78.3%
Joe Mack	28.8%	37.7%	33.3%	64.4%
Graham Pauley	42.4%	N/A	N/A	86.4%
Javier Sanoja	37.1%	36.4%	5.9%	88.9%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Cincinnati Reds	2	4
2026-07-30	St. Louis Cardinals	3.2	6
2026-08-04	Los Angeles Dodgers	3.8	3
2026-09-05	Miami Marlins	4.04	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 18.6%

!Whiff rate is 19.5%

!CSW rate is 26.2%

✓Opponent K% is 23%

!Average pitch count is 52.8

✓WHIP is 1.14

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Miami Marlins	Away	4.2	3	88	1.14	—	—
2026-08-18	Chicago White Sox	Home	3	2	40	1.1	7	28.6%
2026-08-12	Washington Nationals	Away	4	2	66	1.12	5	40%
2026-08-09	Kansas City Royals	Away	1	0	5	1.14	0	—
2026-08-04	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	5.2	3	88	1.15	11	27.3%
2026-07-30	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	4.1	6	83	1.16	12	50%
2026-07-25	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	3	3	32	1.12	5	60%
2026-07-20	Detroit Tigers	Home	1	2	26	1.16	4	50%
2026-07-11	Cincinnati Reds	Away	5	4	82	1.13	12	33.3%
2026-07-05	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	4.2	2	80	1.1	10	20%