MLB pitcher strikeout

Cristian Javier

vs Arizona Diamondbacks2026-09-04DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.0

Ensemble: 4.0

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.5

Under 4.5

30% (3/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

Under 4.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

20.4%

Whiff%

27.8%

CSW%

28.8%

WHIP

1.83

Avg IP

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

4.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

23.1%

Team chase

27.6%

Recent chase

29.2%

Recent contact

81.8%

Recent K% (7d)

22%

Opp K% vs RHP

19.1%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.1%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.0

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.6

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 4.0

Sep 4

vs ARI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 29

@ NYM

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 23

vs ATH

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 18

vs LAA

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 9

@ SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

10.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-4.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 4U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 15

Sep 4

vs ARI

UNDER

Outs

-10.5

Aug 29

@ NYM

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 23

vs ATH

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 18

vs LAA

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 9

@ SD

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

No prior starts found against Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	+127	-163	-0.5	+0.5	Best Under
Pinnacle	4.5	+127	-170	-0.5	+0.5	—
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-158	-0.5	+0.5	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

56.9%

5+ Ks

36.5%Line

6+ Ks

18.8%

7+ Ks

8.2%

8+ Ks

9+ Ks

0.8%

10+ Ks

0.2%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	49.2%	26.6%	16.5%	93.3
Sweeper	25.8%	39%	20%	81.5
Changeup	15.8%	27.3%	15.4%	86.2
Cutter	7.3%	12.9%	0%	89.2

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

30.9%

2-Strike Foul%

23.9%

2-Strike Contact%

83.5%

Expected Ks

26.7

K Luck

-5.7

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	30	26.7%	73.3%
1-2	40	30%	70%
2-2	32	25%	75%
3-2 (full)	16	43.8%	56.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Changeup	Cutter
Geraldo PerdomoS	11.7%	12.8%	7.8% vs R: 8.9%	8.9% vs R: 6.9%	6% vs R: 4.6%	12.2% vs R: 12.1%
Corbin CarrollL	21.6%	22.1%	22.4% vs R: 21.1%	17.5% vs R: 15.4%	14.8% vs R: 12.2%	24.2% vs R: 26.9%
Gabriel MorenoR	15.8%	14.9%	13.5% vs R: 13.3%	7.3% vs R: 7%	9.7% vs R: 13.2%	5% vs R: 9.1%
Ketel MarteS	13%	15.7%	12.6% vs R: 13%	20% vs R: 18.8%	16.8% vs R: 16.9%	25% vs R: 30%
Lars NootbaarL	26.2%	18.3%	21.7% vs R: 19.8%	15% vs R: 10%	9.3% vs R: 9.8%	16.7% vs R: 16.7%
Nolan ArenadoR	20%	20.5%	13.1% vs R: 14.7%	25.3% vs R: 26%	13.3% vs R: 13%	9.7% vs R: 8.7%
Max KeplerL	25%	22.3%	14.6% vs R: 12.8%	21.4% vs R: 20%	16.7% vs R: 17.9%	25% vs R: 28.6%
Tim TawaR	25.7%	23.8%	21.4% vs R: 19.7%	16.7% vs R: 16.2%	22.2% vs R: 28%	12.5% vs R: 11.1%
Ryan WaldschmidtR	20%	32%	27.4% vs R: 27.5%	26.9% vs R: 31.7%	23.3% vs R: 40%	16.7% vs R: 25%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Changeup	Cutter
Geraldo PerdomoS	9.3% vs R: 12.1%	8.1% vs R: 8.3%	9.9% vs R: 8.7%	13.8% vs R: 17.2%
Corbin CarrollL	29% vs R: 28.4%	26.9% vs R: 23.3%	22.2% vs R: 21.6%	18.6% vs R: 17.2%
Gabriel MorenoR	12.4% vs R: 12.6%	12.9% vs R: 10.9%	14.3% vs R: 15.9%	18.4% vs R: 22.9%
Ketel MarteS	10% vs R: 9.9%	33.3% vs R: 30.6%	29.3% vs R: 28.3%	13% vs R: 11.9%
Lars NootbaarL	13.8% vs R: 11.5%	27.8% vs R: 8.3%	15.5% vs R: 16.1%	15.2% vs R: 12.9%
Nolan ArenadoR	12.2% vs R: 14.4%	28.7% vs R: 26.7%	26.4% vs R: 25.5%	23.4% vs R: 28.6%
Max KeplerL	18% vs R: 19.6%	35% vs R: 30.8%	25.5% vs R: 25%	20% vs R: 20%
Tim TawaR	17.5% vs R: 17.4%	38.6% vs R: 41.5%	46.5% vs R: 48%	29.8% vs R: 29.7%
Ryan WaldschmidtR	18.8% vs R: 21.9%	45.3% vs R: 49%	34.1% vs R: 33.3%	18.2% vs R: 26.7%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Nolan Arenado	5	1	20%	.400
Ketel Marte	4	0	0%	.000
Geraldo Perdomo	3	0	0%	.000
Lars Nootbaar	3	0	0%	.333
Max Kepler	1	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Geraldo Perdomo	21.1%	24.1%	12.2%	89.2%
Corbin Carroll	28.1%	32.2%	26%	78.6%
Gabriel Moreno	27.9%	21.9%	14.3%	92.8%
Ketel Marte	29.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Lars Nootbaar	19.4%	23.1%	12.1%	87.9%
Nolan Arenado	31.6%	38%	16.3%	79.5%
Max Kepler	37.3%	38.5%	13.3%	77.8%
Tim Tawa	31.8%	32.3%	30.4%	72.1%
Ryan Waldschmidt	22.2%	23.5%	30%	76.6%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-12	Texas Rangers	1.2	4
2026-08-03	Toronto Blue Jays	3.9	2
2026-08-09	San Diego Padres	1.6	2
2026-08-18	Los Angeles Angels	1.5	5
2026-08-23	Athletics	2.4	8
2026-09-04	Arizona Diamondbacks	3.96	8

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 20.4%

!Whiff rate is 27.8%

!CSW rate is 28.8%

!Opponent K% is 18.7%

!Average pitch count is 72

!WHIP is 1.83

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	1.1	2	23	1.61	—	—
2026-08-29	New York Mets	Away	4.1	4	78	1.63	14	28.6%
2026-08-23	Athletics	Home	4	8	90	1.66	14	57.1%
2026-08-18	Los Angeles Angels	Home	4	5	87	1.68	12	41.7%
2026-08-09	San Diego Padres	Away	5	2	86	1.7	15	13.3%
2026-08-03	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	6	2	85	1.68	13	15.4%
2026-07-27	Los Angeles Angels	Away	5	7	70	1.83	10	70%
2026-07-19	Baltimore Orioles	Home	1	2	20	2.2	3	66.7%
2026-07-12	Texas Rangers	Away	3	4	60	2.28	7	57.1%
2026-07-08	Washington Nationals	Away	1	0	30	2.27	3	0%