MLB pitcher strikeout

Framber Valdez

@ Cleveland Guardians2026-09-05DraftKingsLHP

Projection

3.9

Ensemble: 3.8

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.4

Over 3.5

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

13.7%

Whiff%

15.6%

CSW%

26%

WHIP

1.39

Avg IP

5.4

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

3.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

13.4%

Platoon K%

16.5%

Team chase

31.3%

Recent chase

30.4%

Recent contact

81.3%

Recent K% (7d)

10.6%

Opp K% vs RHP

18.1%

Opp K% vs LHP

17.2%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.9

Sep 5

@ CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 30

vs LAD

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 24

vs TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 17

@ PIT

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 12

vs CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

80% (8/10)· 7O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 16.5Model 16.3

Sep 5

@ CLE

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 30

vs LAD

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 24

vs TB

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 17

@ PIT

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 12

vs CLE

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cleveland Guardians

No prior starts found against Cleveland Guardians.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-157	+123	+0.4	-0.4	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	-160	+124	+0.4	-0.4	—
Pinnacle	3.5	-147	+115	+0.4	-0.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

57.2%Line

5+ Ks

35.4%

6+ Ks

18%

7+ Ks

8+ Ks

3.1%

9+ Ks

0.9%

10+ Ks

0.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	43.3%	7.2%	14.3%	93.8
Curveball	29.1%	29.1%	24%	78.3
Changeup	18.3%	18.1%	16.4%	89.1
4-Seam Fastball	4.9%	17.1%	15.8%	94.7
Slider	4.3%	36%	11.1%	85.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

31.6%

2-Strike Foul%

25.8%

2-Strike Contact%

81.6%

Expected Ks

21.1

K Luck

-3.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	21	47.6%	52.4%
1-2	31	32.3%	67.7%
2-2	27	25.9%	70.4%
3-2 (full)	13	7.7%	92.3%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Curveball	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Slider
Steven KwanL	13.4%	8.5%	6.2% vs L: 6.8%	16% vs L: 0%	4.9% vs L: 10%	6.9% vs L: 11.5%	14.6% vs L: 13.3%
Angel MartínezS	16.7%	25%	32.7% vs L: 11.1%	10.8% vs L: 0%	14% vs L: 17.4%	15.4% vs L: 23.1%	23.7% vs L: 26.7%
José RamírezS	7%	15.1%	11.1% vs L: 14.3%	14.3% vs L: 0%	13.3% vs L: 9.5%	7% vs L: 4.2%	13.3% vs L: 9.5%
Jo AdellR	22%	24.2%	21.9% vs L: 20%	15.6% vs L: 8.3%	22.8% vs L: 21.6%	16.8% vs L: 15.2%	19.2% vs L: 15.4%
David FryR	34.2%	21.7%	19.4% vs L: 18.5%	25% vs L: 23.8%	20% vs L: 19.5%	20.3% vs L: 20%	18.9% vs L: 17.9%
Angel GenaoS	7.1%	15.5%	14.3% vs L: 100%	28.6%	14.3% vs L: 0%	6.5% vs L: 0%	25% vs L: 33.3%
Petey HalpinL	27.3%	17.3%	20% vs L: 0%	20%	17.6%	24.5% vs L: 71.4%	33.3% vs L: 50%
Austin HedgesR	10.8%	25.4%	27.3% vs L: 14.3%	25% vs L: 12.5%	14.3% vs L: 6.7%	13.6% vs L: 10.4%	18.6% vs L: 20%
Brayan RocchioS	16.2%	13.7%	9.6% vs L: 18.2%	15.4% vs L: 5%	15.9% vs L: 16.2%	14.8% vs L: 14.5%	14.9% vs L: 25.8%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Curveball	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Slider
Steven KwanL	2.9% vs L: 1.3%	13% vs L: 0%	10.7% vs L: 25%	2.5% vs L: 3.2%	11.9% vs L: 22%
Angel MartínezS	15.6% vs L: 15.4%	23.7% vs L: 9.1%	19% vs L: 19.4%	12.4% vs L: 13.1%	22.1% vs L: 22.7%
José RamírezS	9.2% vs L: 6.7%	20.5% vs L: 20%	19.7% vs L: 19.4%	9.1% vs L: 7.1%	19.4% vs L: 16.7%
Jo AdellR	16.7% vs L: 19.2%	27.8% vs L: 31.6%	39.9% vs L: 48.7%	20.2% vs L: 17.2%	35.6% vs L: 32.4%
David FryR	19.7% vs L: 20.6%	35.7% vs L: 45.5%	34% vs L: 31.2%	23.5% vs L: 21.6%	40.7% vs L: 37.1%
Angel GenaoS	8.6% vs L: 18.2%	27.3%	10% vs L: 12.5%	11.4% vs L: 21.4%	33.3% vs L: 50%
Petey HalpinL	21.7% vs L: 22.2%	18.8%	7.7%	25% vs L: 33.3%	41% vs L: 41.2%
Austin HedgesR	6.6% vs L: 4.2%	41.7% vs L: 33.3%	28.6% vs L: 24%	16.3% vs L: 17.4%	33.3% vs L: 30.8%
Brayan RocchioS	9% vs L: 4.7%	33.3% vs L: 14.3%	31.4% vs L: 37.5%	14.6% vs L: 18.4%	27.7% vs L: 34.9%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jo Adell	26	7	26.9%	.280
José Ramírez	19	1	5.3%	.375
Steven Kwan	11	1	9.1%	.143
Austin Hedges	11	0	0%	.000
Angel Martínez	6	0	0%	.500
David Fry	6	3	50%	.000
Brayan Rocchio	5	1	20%	.500
Angel Genao	3	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Steven Kwan	18.7%	18.4%	11.1%	97.9%
Angel Martínez	39.9%	29.5%	21.2%	85.9%
José Ramírez	29.3%	31.5%	14.6%	88%
Jo Adell	34.4%	34.1%	15.1%	80.2%
David Fry	27%	28%	N/A	84.2%
Angel Genao	28%	26%	20%	74.7%
Petey Halpin	41.4%	32%	N/A	75%
Austin Hedges	28.4%	28.6%	33.3%	68.2%
Brayan Rocchio	34.6%	45.3%	14.3%	77.5%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	Athletics	4.4	9
2026-07-21	Chicago Cubs	3.8	1
2026-07-26	Kansas City Royals	4	4
2026-08-01	Athletics	4.4	6
2026-08-06	Seattle Mariners	5	5
2026-08-12	Cleveland Guardians	3.5	3
2026-08-17	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.1	5
2026-08-24	Tampa Bay Rays	3.4	0
2026-08-30	Los Angeles Dodgers	3.3	5
2026-09-05	Cleveland Guardians	3.89	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 13.7%

!Whiff rate is 15.6%

!CSW rate is 26%

!Opponent K% is 17.4%

!Average pitch count is 89

!WHIP is 1.39

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Cleveland Guardians	Away	7	3	94	1.36	—	—
2026-08-30	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	6	5	105	1.4	15	33.3%
2026-08-24	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	6	0	84	1.41	6	0%
2026-08-17	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	5.2	5	91	1.4	11	45.5%
2026-08-12	Cleveland Guardians	Home	5.2	3	102	1.39	13	23.1%
2026-08-06	Seattle Mariners	Away	7	5	95	1.37	12	41.7%
2026-08-01	Athletics	Away	7	6	96	1.39	11	54.5%
2026-07-26	Kansas City Royals	Home	5	4	97	1.38	13	30.8%
2026-07-21	Chicago Cubs	Away	0.2	1	42	1.38	6	16.7%
2026-07-09	Athletics	Home	7	9	87	1.32	13	69.2%