MLB pitcher strikeout

Tyler Phillips

vs Chicago Cubs2026-09-06FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.2

Ensemble: 4.2

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.7

Over 3.5

50% (5/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

80/100

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Pitcher K%

27.3%

Whiff%

29.3%

CSW%

32.5%

WHIP

1.36

Avg IP

4.4

Avg pitches

69.6

Last 5 avg Ks

4.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

19.2%

Team chase

27.3%

Recent chase

27.1%

Recent contact

82.5%

Recent K% (7d)

18.3%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.7%

Opp K% vs LHP

18.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.2

Sep 1

@ KC

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 25

vs BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 18

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 13

vs PIT

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 7

vs LAA

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

FanDuel

Model projection

14.4

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

12.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-2.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 14.4

Sep 1

@ KC

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 25

vs BOS

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 18

@ PHI

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Aug 13

vs PIT

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 7

vs LAA

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Chicago Cubs

No prior starts found against Chicago Cubs.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	+0.7	-0.7	Best Over
Pinnacle	3.5	-142	+112	+0.7	-0.7	—
DraftKings	3.5	-152	+119	+0.7	-0.7	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

66.6%Line

5+ Ks

45.2%

6+ Ks

26.4%

7+ Ks

13.4%

8+ Ks

5.9%

9+ Ks

2.2%

10+ Ks

0.7%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sweeper	25.6%	28.2%	33.3%	84.1
Sinker	24.4%	6.4%	9.6%	95.2
Splitter	22.9%	33.3%	18.9%	86.7
Curveball	16.5%	33%	15.3%	83.2
4-Seam Fastball	8.5%	11.1%	10.5%	95.8
Slider	2.1%	0%	0%	87.8

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

44.4%

2-Strike Foul%

21.6%

2-Strike Contact%

73.1%

Expected Ks

20.2

K Luck

+3.8

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	24	54.2%	45.8%
1-2	28	46.4%	53.6%
2-2	15	46.7%	53.3%
3-2 (full)	13	30.8%	69.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sweeper	Sinker	Splitter	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Slider
Pete Crow-ArmstrongL	28.3%	25.3%	25.3% vs R: 29.6%	25.8% vs R: 28%	16.7% vs R: 16.7%	28.6% vs R: 31.4%	18.4% vs R: 17.8%	15.4% vs R: 14.5%
Seiya SuzukiR	18.5%	26.5%	27.1% vs R: 26.9%	23.1% vs R: 20.7%	0% vs R: 0%	20.8% vs R: 25.6%	15.5% vs R: 17.1%	15.9% vs R: 16%
Michael BuschL	22.3%	23.5%	11.3% vs R: 15.2%	19.3% vs R: 13%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%	22.9% vs R: 21.1%	16.2% vs R: 17%	23.6% vs R: 24.6%
Alex BregmanR	13.8%	15.7%	14.6% vs R: 14.3%	8.8% vs R: 8.9%	16.7% vs R: 18.2%	23.4% vs R: 17.8%	10.6% vs R: 12.2%	19.1% vs R: 19.8%
Ian HappS	33.8%	29.4%	29.4% vs R: 31%	21.8% vs R: 18.6%	11.1% vs R: 9.1%	26.2% vs R: 26.5%	24.5% vs R: 23.4%	19.5% vs R: 17.1%
Nico HoernerR	10.1%	8.2%	5.6% vs R: 4.8%	8.3% vs R: 6.8%	15.8% vs R: 11.8%	8.3% vs R: 10.3%	7.6% vs R: 8.2%	14.5% vs R: 17.5%
Pedro RamírezS	11.4%	19.6%	16.7% vs R: 22.2%	22.2% vs R: 25%	5.3% vs R: 5.6%	20% vs R: 21.7%	20.3% vs R: 19.7%	16.7% vs R: 14.3%
Michael ConfortoL	12.5%	28.5%	20.8% vs R: 17.4%	10.7% vs R: 11.1%	50% vs R: 50%	25.9% vs R: 25.9%	22.9% vs R: 22.9%	16.7% vs R: 17.9%
Carson KellyR	17.7%	15.3%	24.4% vs R: 25%	18.6% vs R: 20.4%	33.3% vs R: 28.6%	3.7% vs R: 0%	9.4% vs R: 6.2%	18.1% vs R: 17.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sweeper	Sinker	Splitter	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Slider
Pete Crow-ArmstrongL	27.4% vs R: 28.6%	13.2% vs R: 17.9%	31.7% vs R: 31.7%	33.3% vs R: 35.2%	20.7% vs R: 21.5%	29.7% vs R: 23.8%
Seiya SuzukiR	31.3% vs R: 33.8%	10.6% vs R: 10.6%	30% vs R: 33.3%	25% vs R: 25%	14.9% vs R: 18%	28% vs R: 30.2%
Michael BuschL	26% vs R: 33.3%	13.4% vs R: 17.2%	41.4% vs R: 41.4%	35.6% vs R: 36.8%	12.5% vs R: 13.6%	41.9% vs R: 39.6%
Alex BregmanR	24.4% vs R: 25.7%	3.6% vs R: 3.6%	11.1% vs R: 11.1%	26% vs R: 23.3%	6.8% vs R: 9.5%	30% vs R: 31.6%
Ian HappS	27.1% vs R: 25.5%	11.7% vs R: 15.8%	22.4% vs R: 22.9%	41.9% vs R: 39.3%	25.8% vs R: 28.6%	30.3% vs R: 28.6%
Nico HoernerR	10.8% vs R: 11.9%	3.7% vs R: 2.4%	33.3% vs R: 26.3%	9.8% vs R: 10.7%	6.3% vs R: 6.4%	23.8% vs R: 25.5%
Pedro RamírezS	17.2% vs R: 22.7%	11.6% vs R: 11.8%	38.9% vs R: 38.9%	56.5% vs R: 55%	18.1% vs R: 18.5%	12.1% vs R: 11.5%
Michael ConfortoL	31% vs R: 23.1%	14.6% vs R: 13.6%	57.1% vs R: 57.1%	44% vs R: 44%	16.9% vs R: 17%	22.5% vs R: 22.2%
Carson KellyR	26.3% vs R: 31.1%	6.7% vs R: 5.2%	66.7% vs R: 75%	17.9% vs R: 8.3%	7.5% vs R: 6.9%	32.4% vs R: 29.8%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K%	AVG
Michael Conforto	2	0%	.500
Michael Busch	1	0%	1.000
Nico Hoerner	1	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Pete Crow-Armstrong	30.1%	29.2%	24.6%	80.6%
Seiya Suzuki	21.2%	17.8%	12.3%	83.1%
Michael Busch	25.5%	25.9%	29.1%	71.4%
Alex Bregman	23.7%	27%	9.1%	89.1%
Ian Happ	24.4%	28.9%	26.8%	82.3%
Nico Hoerner	35.9%	42.3%	12%	85%
Pedro Ramírez	34.8%	28.6%	13.9%	85.3%
Michael Conforto	29.1%	25.4%	16%	82.7%
Carson Kelly	21.3%	19%	12.1%	83.3%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	Seattle Mariners	1.3	3
2026-07-12	Cleveland Guardians	1	1
2026-07-21	Houston Astros	0.9	2
2026-07-27	Philadelphia Phillies	4.5	5
2026-08-01	New York Mets	4	3
2026-08-07	Los Angeles Angels	3.8	4
2026-08-13	Pittsburgh Pirates	0.9	6
2026-08-25	Boston Red Sox	1.8	7
2026-09-01	Kansas City Royals	4	4
2026-09-06	Chicago Cubs	4.18	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 27.3%

✓Whiff rate is 29.3%

✓CSW rate is 32.5%

!Opponent K% is 21.1%

!Average pitch count is 69.6

!WHIP is 1.36

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-01	Kansas City Royals	Away	5	4	69	1.33	10	40%
2026-08-25	Boston Red Sox	Home	4.2	7	84	1.37	14	50%
2026-08-18	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	2	3	42	1.37	6	50%
2026-08-13	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	5.1	6	92	1.36	15	40%
2026-08-07	Los Angeles Angels	Home	4	4	61	1.36	9	44.4%
2026-08-01	New York Mets	Away	5	3	65	1.35	7	42.9%
2026-07-27	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	5	5	76	1.36	11	45.5%
2026-07-21	Houston Astros	Away	4.1	2	68	1.39	7	28.6%
2026-07-12	Cleveland Guardians	Home	1	1	26	1.39	3	33.3%
2026-07-08	Seattle Mariners	Home	5	3	71	1.36	8	37.5%