MLB pitcher strikeout

Daniel IV

vs Toronto Blue Jays2026-09-04PinnacleLHP

Projection

Model strikeouts

Market line

2.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+2.5

Under 2.5

20% (2/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Under 2.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

83/100

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Pitcher K%

16.4%

Whiff%

17.4%

CSW%

26.2%

WHIP

0.99

Avg IP

2.3

Avg pitches

34.9

Last 5 avg Ks

1.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

10%

Platoon K%

10.5%

Team chase

30.8%

Recent chase

27.2%

Recent contact

81.7%

Recent K% (7d)

21.4%

Opp K% vs RHP

15.7%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.2%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Ks

1.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 0

Sep 4

vs TOR

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 29

@ CLE

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 23

vs DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 18

vs ATH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 12

@ LAD

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

3.5

Selected line

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

6.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+2.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5

Sep 4

vs TOR

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 29

@ CLE

OVER

Outs

+6.5

Aug 23

vs DET

OVER

Outs

+9.5

Aug 18

vs ATH

OVER

Outs

+8.5

Aug 12

@ LAD

OVER

Outs

+3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Toronto Blue Jays

No prior starts found against Toronto Blue Jays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	2.5	-101	-131	-2.5	+2.5	Best Under

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

No ladder projection available for this start yet.

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	35.3%	9.8%	17.9%	94.1
Changeup	23.9%	20.6%	9.5%	85.7
Slider	19.5%	32.7%	20.5%	87.6
4-Seam Fastball	13.3%	12.5%	3.7%	94.8
Knuckle Curve	8%	5.9%	0%	81.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

40.7%

2-Strike Foul%

31.9%

2-Strike Contact%

83.3%

Expected Ks

8.3

K Luck

+2.7

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	7	28.6%	71.4%
1-2	18	44.4%	55.6%
2-2	13	38.5%	61.5%
3-2 (full)	11	54.5%	45.5%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Changeup	Slider	4-Seam Fastball	Knuckle Curve
Brett BatemanL	22.9%	20.9%	14.3% vs L: 18.2%	25%	20% vs L: 22.2%	36.4% vs L: 33.3%	—
George SpringerR	18.2%	18.6%	13.4% vs L: 21.1%	22% vs L: 18.5%	26% vs L: 20%	10.8% vs L: 7.8%	0%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.R	13.3%	12.3%	9.6% vs L: 14.3%	9.8% vs L: 6.7%	17.5% vs L: 16.7%	10.3% vs L: 12%	38.5%
Alejandro KirkR	19.5%	9.1%	10.3% vs L: 9.1%	4.3% vs L: 6.2%	9.3% vs L: 18.2%	11.3% vs L: 30.4%	—
Kazuma OkamotoR	27.1%	31%	22.3% vs L: 20%	20.7% vs L: 24.2%	26.8% vs L: 28.9%	17.9% vs L: 16.4%	11.8%
Charles McAdooR	31%	18.4%	20.8% vs L: 33.3%	16.7% vs L: 20%	22.2% vs L: 22.2%	28.6% vs L: 23.1%	—
Ernie ClementR	10.2%	9.7%	7.1% vs L: 14.3%	19.4% vs L: 16.7%	21.2% vs L: 6.2%	9.5% vs L: 14.3%	16.7%
Nathan LukesL	23.1%	13%	19% vs L: 14.3%	7%	9.4% vs L: 20%	10.8% vs L: 22.2%	0%
Myles StrawR	17.6%	8.6%	3.8% vs L: 5.6%	14.3% vs L: 12%	21.2% vs L: 23.7%	10.8% vs L: 13.3%	33.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Changeup	Slider	4-Seam Fastball	Knuckle Curve
Brett BatemanL	12.1% vs L: 10%	16.7%	22.2% vs L: 23.1%	12.5% vs L: 25%	—
George SpringerR	11.1% vs L: 11.1%	33.3% vs L: 32.4%	34.2% vs L: 23.5%	17.3% vs L: 14.8%	22.2%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.R	6.1% vs L: 3.7%	28.1% vs L: 36.2%	23.7% vs L: 15.4%	14.1% vs L: 9.3%	52.9%
Alejandro KirkR	7.6% vs L: 13%	12.9% vs L: 17.4%	13.8% vs L: 14.3%	21.1% vs L: 25%	—
Kazuma OkamotoR	22.8% vs L: 22.6%	35.1% vs L: 38.5%	42.4% vs L: 36.2%	25.9% vs L: 20.3%	19%
Charles McAdooR	5.9% vs L: 0%	35.3% vs L: 42.9%	40% vs L: 50%	17.2% vs L: 16.7%	—
Ernie ClementR	2.1% vs L: 0%	24.2% vs L: 20.8%	23.8% vs L: 16%	10.9% vs L: 11.1%	18.8%
Nathan LukesL	10.1% vs L: 4.7%	17.8%	22.4% vs L: 25%	11.9% vs L: 18.2%	0%
Myles StrawR	3.8% vs L: 6.5%	11.6% vs L: 12.1%	21.7% vs L: 24.4%	7.5% vs L: 8.4%	50%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Myles Straw	13	0	0%	.250
George Springer	9	2	22.2%	.375
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	8	1	12.5%	.500
Alejandro Kirk	7	1	14.3%	.333
Ernie Clement	6	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Brett Bateman	28.7%	20.9%	23.9%	84.1%
George Springer	23.9%	29.7%	15.8%	74.3%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	30%	26.8%	4.3%	92.5%
Alejandro Kirk	27.3%	23.9%	19.4%	85.5%
Kazuma Okamoto	30.4%	17.3%	25.6%	71.2%
Charles McAdoo	33.3%	34.1%	15.8%	70.3%
Ernie Clement	45.1%	48.1%	11.9%	90.5%
Nathan Lukes	33%	30.4%	15.8%	81.1%
Myles Straw	25.1%	14%	10%	86%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-07	Chicago Cubs		2
2026-08-12	Los Angeles Dodgers	0	3
2026-08-18	Athletics	0.4	1
2026-08-23	Detroit Tigers	0	2
2026-08-29	Cleveland Guardians	0	3
2026-09-04	Toronto Blue Jays	0	0

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 16.4%

!Whiff rate is 17.4%

!CSW rate is 26.2%

!Opponent K% is 17%

!Average pitch count is 34.9

✓WHIP is 0.99

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	1	0	28	1.12	—	—
2026-08-29	Cleveland Guardians	Away	3.1	3	70	1.05	7	42.9%
2026-08-23	Detroit Tigers	Home	4.1	2	59	1.03	6	33.3%
2026-08-18	Athletics	Home	4	1	45	1.02	4	25%
2026-08-12	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	2.1	3	39	1.02	6	50%
2026-08-07	Chicago Cubs	Home	1.2	2	35	1.01	4	50%
2026-08-04	Minnesota Twins	Home	1	1	11	0.93	2	50%
2026-07-29	Minnesota Twins	Away	1	0	10	0.93	0	—
2026-07-28	Minnesota Twins	Away	0.2	0	10	0.93	1	0%
2026-07-25	Detroit Tigers	Away	1	0	12	0.92	1	0%