MLB pitcher strikeout

Ryan Feltner

vs St. Louis Cardinals2026-09-04FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.6

Ensemble: 4.5

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+1.1

Over 3.5

40% (4/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

15.7%

Whiff%

22.8%

CSW%

26.2%

WHIP

1.49

Avg IP

4.8

Avg pitches

85.1

Last 5 avg Ks

3.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

16.3%

Team chase

35.8%

Recent chase

37.2%

Recent contact

75.3%

Recent K% (7d)

21.3%

Opp K% vs RHP

25.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (4/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.6

Aug 30

@ ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 24

@ WSH

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 18

vs LAD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 12

@ ARI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 7

@ STL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.6

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 16.3

Aug 30

@ ATL

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 24

@ WSH

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 18

vs LAD

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 12

@ ARI

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 7

@ STL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. St. Louis Cardinals

No prior starts found against St. Louis Cardinals.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	+122	-156	+0.1	-0.1	—
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	+1.1	-1.1	Best Over
Pinnacle	3.5	-140	+106	+1.1	-1.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

71.6%Line

5+ Ks

51.7%

6+ Ks

32.2%

7+ Ks

16.7%

8+ Ks

7.8%

9+ Ks

3.5%

10+ Ks

1.2%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	29.1%	12.9%	16.5%	94.8
Slider	22.8%	27.7%	11.9%	89
Changeup	18.4%	41.7%	25%	85.1
Sinker	14.5%	14.4%	10.3%	94.4
Sweeper	8.6%	15.7%	6.8%	81.5
Curveball	6.5%	7.1%	0%	79.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

29.7%

2-Strike Foul%

19.8%

2-Strike Contact%

79.5%

Expected Ks

20.2

K Luck

-1.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	30	36.7%	63.3%
1-2	31	35.5%	64.5%
2-2	25	24%	76%
3-2 (full)	19	5.3%	94.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sinker	Sweeper	Curveball
Bryan TorresL	13.8%	20.7%	12.3% vs R: 13.5%	27.3% vs R: 23.1%	20% vs R: 20%	9.1% vs R: 11.8%	0% vs R: 0%	14.3% vs R: 14.3%
Iván HerreraR	15.5%	19.2%	14.1% vs R: 15.9%	13% vs R: 15.6%	13.9% vs R: 20%	12.7% vs R: 12.8%	19.8% vs R: 19.7%	13.6% vs R: 17.2%
Alec BurlesonL	17.2%	16.8%	20% vs R: 17.9%	19.2% vs R: 23.3%	18.1% vs R: 13.5%	7.5% vs R: 2.4%	16.1% vs R: 19.4%	13.2% vs R: 12.1%
Jordan WalkerR	21%	26.4%	26.4% vs R: 29.6%	27.6% vs R: 33.3%	25.7% vs R: 32.4%	29.6% vs R: 33.3%	13.9% vs R: 13.2%	27% vs R: 25%
Leo BernalS	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Joshua BáezR	34.3%	35.3%	50% vs R: 20%	12.5% vs R: 28.6%	35.7%	16.7% vs R: 25%	36.4% vs R: 37.5%	40%
Nolan GormanL	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Thomas SaggeseR	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Nathan ChurchL	16.1%	18.4%	15.3% vs R: 16%	14.1% vs R: 17.5%	18.3% vs R: 17.9%	5.9% vs R: 5.3%	31.2% vs R: 28.6%	10% vs R: 11.1%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sinker	Sweeper	Curveball
Bryan TorresL	14.3% vs R: 16.3%	31% vs R: 26.3%	30.6% vs R: 30.6%	14.3% vs R: 20%	25% vs R: 28.6%	0% vs R: 0%
Iván HerreraR	11.5% vs R: 11.6%	30.3% vs R: 30.8%	29.1% vs R: 26.3%	9.5% vs R: 8.5%	22.8% vs R: 19.8%	17.4% vs R: 24.2%
Alec BurlesonL	19.3% vs R: 21.5%	26.3% vs R: 31.3%	18.1% vs R: 16.8%	17.7% vs R: 14.9%	28.9% vs R: 30.2%	22% vs R: 19.5%
Jordan WalkerR	20.1% vs R: 22%	38.8% vs R: 46%	40.9% vs R: 41.2%	18.8% vs R: 17.6%	31.1% vs R: 32.2%	40.6% vs R: 39.3%
Leo BernalS	—	—	—	—	—	—
Joshua BáezR	35.5% vs R: 37.5%	29.2% vs R: 30.8%	45%	14.8% vs R: 20%	42.9% vs R: 50%	50%
Nolan GormanL	—	—	—	—	—	—
Thomas SaggeseR	—	—	—	—	—	—
Nathan ChurchL	18.6% vs R: 19.3%	16.1% vs R: 22%	25.4% vs R: 24.8%	9.1% vs R: 9.4%	31.9% vs R: 34.8%	14.6% vs R: 16.3%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Alec Burleson	9	1	11.1%	.125
Iván Herrera	8	1	12.5%	.250
Jordan Walker	5	0	0%	.200
Nolan Gorman	5	1	20%	.200
Bryan Torres	2	0	0%	.000
Nathan Church	2	1	50%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Bryan Torres	27.2%	N/A	N/A	72.2%
Iván Herrera	28.6%	19.1%	17.8%	84%
Alec Burleson	39.8%	47.9%	19%	77.5%
Jordan Walker	36.4%	35.8%	35.7%	65%
Leo Bernal	N/A	N/A	N/A	85%
Joshua Báez	42.1%	48.3%	37.5%	63.9%
Nolan Gorman	35.1%	38.6%	41.7%	66%
Thomas Saggese	N/A	33.3%	16.7%	75%
Nathan Church	41.4%	37.3%	8.3%	89.2%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	San Francisco Giants	3.3	3
2026-07-19	Cincinnati Reds	3.4	3
2026-07-25	Milwaukee Brewers	4.1	4
2026-08-01	Kansas City Royals	4.4	3
2026-08-07	St. Louis Cardinals	3.9	2
2026-08-12	Arizona Diamondbacks	2.1	2
2026-08-18	Los Angeles Dodgers	2.1	3
2026-08-24	Washington Nationals	2.4	6
2026-09-04	St. Louis Cardinals	4.62	5

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 15.7%

!Whiff rate is 22.8%

!CSW rate is 26.2%

!Opponent K% is 21.5%

!Average pitch count is 85.1

!WHIP is 1.49

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-30	Atlanta Braves	Away	4	6	71	1.55	11	54.5%
2026-08-24	Washington Nationals	Away	5.2	6	103	1.55	16	37.5%
2026-08-18	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	5	3	83	1.53	11	27.3%
2026-08-12	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	5	2	93	1.49	14	14.3%
2026-08-07	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	5.1	2	91	1.46	12	16.7%
2026-08-01	Kansas City Royals	Home	6	3	87	1.46	11	27.3%
2026-07-25	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	5	4	82	1.46	9	44.4%
2026-07-19	Cincinnati Reds	Home	2.1	3	71	1.42	10	30%
2026-07-09	San Francisco Giants	Away	4.1	3	92	1.29	12	25%
2026-07-03	San Francisco Giants	Home	6	9	88	1.22	15	60%