MLB pitcher strikeout

Drew Rasmussen

@ Texas Rangers2026-09-05FanDuelRHP

Projection

5.6

Ensemble: 5.3

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

No qualifying edge

50% (5/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

A+

98/100

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Pitcher K%

23.7%

Whiff%

21.6%

CSW%

28.2%

WHIP

0.93

Avg IP

5.9

Avg pitches

92.1

Last 5 avg Ks

5.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

26.3%

Team chase

29.4%

Recent chase

27.6%

Recent contact

77.6%

Recent K% (7d)

14.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

24.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

5.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.0

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 5.6

Sep 5

@ TEX

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 30

vs SD

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 24

@ DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 19

vs TOR

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 12

@ ATH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.4

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 3O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 16.4

Sep 5

@ TEX

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 30

vs SD

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 24

@ DET

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 19

vs TOR

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 12

@ ATH

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Texas Rangers

No prior starts found against Texas Rangers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	+0.1	-0.1	—
DraftKings	5.5	-137	+108	+0.1	-0.1	—
Pinnacle	5.5	-106	-125	+0.1	-0.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

85.6%

5+ Ks

70.3%

6+ Ks

51.5%Line

7+ Ks

32.5%

8+ Ks

18%

9+ Ks

8.6%

10+ Ks

3.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	30.5%	24.8%	20.5%	95.8
Cutter	25%	24.6%	14.6%	89.9
Sinker	24.4%	15.4%	21.8%	95.2
Changeup	14.3%	28.6%	18.9%	89.7
Curveball	3.1%	37.5%	0%	79.6
Sweeper	2.7%	25%	14.3%	84.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

40.3%

2-Strike Foul%

28.8%

2-Strike Contact%

81.7%

Expected Ks

31.1

K Luck

-4.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	34	35.3%	64.7%
1-2	38	39.5%	60.5%
2-2	33	45.5%	54.5%
3-2 (full)	16	31.2%	68.8%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sinker	Changeup	Curveball	Sweeper
Joc PedersonL	38.9%	22.2%	20.7% vs R: 20.1%	17.2% vs R: 15.4%	18.9% vs R: 19.4%	16.5% vs R: 16.1%	20% vs R: 14.8%	14% vs R: 11.8%
Corey SeagerL	25.9%	22.5%	23.9% vs R: 23.1%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%	17.8% vs R: 17.9%	17.6% vs R: 16.7%	23.1% vs R: 25%	31% vs R: 14.3%
Wyatt LangfordR	22.5%	19.8%	19.9% vs R: 18.6%	15.4% vs R: 21.4%	19.3% vs R: 15.2%	18.5% vs R: 15.6%	4.2% vs R: 0%	16% vs R: 19%
Brandon NimmoL	19%	22.4%	14.9% vs R: 15.5%	15.9% vs R: 14.3%	17.8% vs R: 14.9%	25.6% vs R: 23.6%	8.6% vs R: 9.4%	16.1% vs R: 21.4%
Ezequiel DuranR	22.4%	23.6%	15.5% vs R: 15.2%	15.4% vs R: 16.7%	12.3% vs R: 13.8%	6.8% vs R: 2.9%	28.6% vs R: 21.1%	16% vs R: 16%
Jake BurgerR	27%	26.3%	25.8% vs R: 26.4%	17.4% vs R: 17.6%	15.7% vs R: 16.4%	30.8% vs R: 31.6%	32.1% vs R: 30.8%	25.3% vs R: 25.3%
Evan CarterL	33.3%	22.1%	17.3% vs R: 15.3%	23.3% vs R: 23.1%	10.9% vs R: 8.2%	17.6% vs R: 18%	19.2% vs R: 19%	22.2% vs R: 20.8%
Cody FreemanR	14.3%	14.3%	9.8% vs R: 9.1%	30% vs R: 33.3%	0% vs R: 0%	0%	28.6%	12.5% vs R: 16.7%
Danny JansenR	34%	26.7%	19.8% vs R: 19.7%	23.1% vs R: 27.3%	12.9% vs R: 10%	23.8% vs R: 28.6%	11.1% vs R: 0%	24.1% vs R: 20.8%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sinker	Changeup	Curveball	Sweeper
Joc PedersonL	25.9% vs R: 26.1%	23.5% vs R: 23.1%	21.6% vs R: 20.8%	27% vs R: 27.5%	25.4% vs R: 24.6%	42.9% vs R: 40.6%
Corey SeagerL	26.7% vs R: 28.9%	7.7% vs R: 8.3%	23% vs R: 24%	31.4% vs R: 31.8%	35.5% vs R: 34.8%	32.6% vs R: 21.4%
Wyatt LangfordR	15.4% vs R: 16.8%	23.7% vs R: 26%	10.4% vs R: 8.3%	35.4% vs R: 27.3%	30.8% vs R: 22.2%	27.8% vs R: 29.2%
Brandon NimmoL	17.4% vs R: 18.1%	18.3% vs R: 16.5%	13.7% vs R: 12.6%	20.5% vs R: 19.3%	14.3% vs R: 13.5%	23.2% vs R: 25%
Ezequiel DuranR	23.8% vs R: 24.8%	20% vs R: 20%	10.6% vs R: 12.2%	22% vs R: 13.6%	34.3% vs R: 31.8%	23.7% vs R: 26.5%
Jake BurgerR	25.5% vs R: 26.4%	31.1% vs R: 39%	15.1% vs R: 16.2%	47.2% vs R: 47.9%	31% vs R: 20%	35.2% vs R: 36.8%
Evan CarterL	15.3% vs R: 13.2%	29.6% vs R: 27.5%	12% vs R: 14.3%	34.2% vs R: 34.5%	43.3% vs R: 41.7%	31.6% vs R: 29%
Cody FreemanR	6.8% vs R: 3.3%	25% vs R: 42.9%	3.8% vs R: 0%	23.1%	40%	12.5% vs R: 14.3%
Danny JansenR	23.4% vs R: 19.5%	27.3% vs R: 29.4%	11.8% vs R: 4.3%	33.3% vs R: 28.6%	27.3% vs R: 20%	32.1% vs R: 33.3%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jake Burger	8	1	12.5%	.375
Corey Seager	7	2	28.6%	.000
Danny Jansen	6	0	0%	.167
Wyatt Langford	4	1	25%	.000
Joc Pederson	3	2	66.7%	.000
Brandon Nimmo	3	0	0%	1.000
Evan Carter	1	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Joc Pederson	33.3%	32.7%	30.8%	75.9%
Corey Seager	24.3%	23.1%	17%	74.2%
Wyatt Langford	27.7%	29.6%	11.1%	80.4%
Brandon Nimmo	28.9%	24.3%	20.8%	79.3%
Ezequiel Duran	35.4%	32.1%	19.2%	70.7%
Jake Burger	34.1%	33%	23.4%	66.7%
Evan Carter	21%	25%	20.7%	81.2%
Cody Freeman	26.2%	29.6%	4.3%	93.2%
Danny Jansen	33.3%	19.4%	22.2%	76.5%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	New York Yankees	7.2	2
2026-07-21	Toronto Blue Jays	5.8	5
2026-07-26	Cleveland Guardians	5.2	9
2026-08-01	Chicago White Sox	5.9	10
2026-08-07	Seattle Mariners	4.6	8
2026-08-12	Athletics	7.1	3
2026-08-19	Toronto Blue Jays	7	5
2026-08-24	Detroit Tigers	6.8	5
2026-08-30	San Diego Padres	6.8	6
2026-09-05	Texas Rangers	5.56	7

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 23.7%

!Whiff rate is 21.6%

!CSW rate is 28.2%

✓Opponent K% is 23.4%

✓Average pitch count is 92.1

✓WHIP is 0.93

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Texas Rangers	Away	7	7	97	0.91	—	—
2026-08-30	San Diego Padres	Home	6	6	97	0.93	13	46.2%
2026-08-24	Detroit Tigers	Away	6	5	103	0.93	16	31.2%
2026-08-19	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	5	5	86	0.95	13	38.5%
2026-08-12	Athletics	Away	5	3	84	0.91	11	27.3%
2026-08-07	Seattle Mariners	Away	7	8	91	0.91	14	57.1%
2026-08-01	Chicago White Sox	Home	6	10	96	0.93	16	62.5%
2026-07-26	Cleveland Guardians	Home	7	9	87	0.93	14	64.3%
2026-07-21	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	5	5	93	0.98	13	38.5%
2026-07-09	New York Yankees	Home	2.1	2	61	0.95	8	25%