MLB pitcher strikeout

Foster Griffin

vs Detroit Tigers2026-09-04FanDuelLHP

Projection

4.2

Ensemble: 4.4

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+1.3

Under 5.5

30% (3/10)· 3U streak

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Recommendation

Under 5.5

FanDuel

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

21.7%

Whiff%

16.1%

CSW%

25.7%

WHIP

1.09

Avg IP

5.5

Avg pitches

92.8

Last 5 avg Ks

3.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

22.2%

Team chase

29.7%

Recent chase

30.6%

Recent contact

77.6%

Recent K% (7d)

24.8%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

22.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 3U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 5.5Model 4.2

Sep 4

vs DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Aug 29

vs KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 23

@ COL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 18

vs SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 12

@ DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

DraftKings

Model projection

15.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 3U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 17.5Model 15.2

Sep 4

vs DET

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Aug 29

vs KC

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 23

@ COL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 18

vs SF

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 12

@ DET

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Detroit Tigers

No prior starts found against Detroit Tigers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	-1.3	+1.3	Best Under
DraftKings	5.5	+103	-132	-1.3	+1.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

60.2%

5+ Ks

38.9%

6+ Ks

21.2%Line

7+ Ks

9.7%

8+ Ks

3.7%

9+ Ks

1.2%

10+ Ks

0.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Cutter	33.8%	16.5%	12%	88.9
4-Seam Fastball	15.4%	14.8%	16.8%	91.7
Sweeper	14.2%	26.4%	25.4%	80.4
Changeup	11.5%	28.9%	19.4%	82.3
Curveball	9.8%	21.7%	12.8%	77.8
Sinker	9.2%	8.8%	13.3%	91.8
Splitter	6%	20%	10%	81.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

38.3%

2-Strike Foul%

29.6%

2-Strike Contact%

84.8%

Expected Ks

22.7

K Luck

+0.3

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	22	45.5%	54.5%
1-2	44	38.6%	61.4%
2-2	32	21.9%	78.1%
3-2 (full)	14	14.3%	85.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Changeup	Curveball	Sinker	Splitter
Gleyber TorresR	20.2%	18%	33.3% vs L: 28.6%	14.9% vs L: 10%	16.1% vs L: 25%	9.1% vs L: 4.2%	16.7% vs L: 16.7%	8.7% vs L: 22.2%	5.3%
Hao-Yu LeeR	23%	23.7%	29.4% vs L: 42.9%	25% vs L: 26%	15% vs L: 0%	14.3% vs L: 16%	0% vs L: 0%	24.2% vs L: 18.2%	42.9%
Kevin McGonigleL	19.3%	11.2%	6% vs L: 20%	11.3% vs L: 8.9%	16.1% vs L: 13.3%	15.3% vs L: 30.8%	7.4% vs L: 12.5%	12.5% vs L: 9.4%	9.1%
Dillon DinglerR	27.1%	20.3%	17.5% vs L: 33.3%	17% vs L: 15.8%	12.7% vs L: 16.7%	20% vs L: 18.2%	35.3% vs L: 50%	12.9% vs L: 4.5%	15.2%
Eduardo ValenciaR	42.5%	20%	0% vs L: 0%	38.2% vs L: 40%	0%	29.4% vs L: 26.7%	14.3% vs L: 14.3%	10% vs L: 16.7%	—
Zach McKinstryL	17.1%	15.6%	15% vs L: 0%	12% vs L: 23.1%	11.8% vs L: 6.2%	17.3% vs L: 25%	13.5%	7.5% vs L: 6.7%	29.6%
Spencer TorkelsonR	28.1%	32.5%	28.6% vs L: 28.6%	19.1% vs L: 10.9%	34.2% vs L: 9.1%	29% vs L: 28.1%	23.5% vs L: 20%	16.9% vs L: 18.2%	36%
Max ClarkL	16.7%	23.7%	0%	15.1% vs L: 16.7%	28.6%	28.6% vs L: 14.3%	25%	22.2% vs L: 20%	25%
Javier BáezR	14.3%	20.7%	11.1%	15.2% vs L: 14.3%	20%	15% vs L: 27.3%	14.3% vs L: 25%	41.7% vs L: 100%	0%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Changeup	Curveball	Sinker	Splitter
Gleyber TorresR	32.4% vs L: 16.7%	20.2% vs L: 14.3%	10.4% vs L: 0%	23.7% vs L: 21.7%	34.8% vs L: 42.9%	7.4% vs L: 5.6%	10%
Hao-Yu LeeR	26.1% vs L: 22.2%	23.6% vs L: 20.3%	18.6% vs L: 33.3%	29.1% vs L: 29.8%	8.3% vs L: 6.7%	19.4% vs L: 20%	71.4%
Kevin McGonigleL	11.8% vs L: 24%	9.3% vs L: 9.1%	23.5% vs L: 35.5%	27.7% vs L: 40%	13.5% vs L: 0%	5.5% vs L: 5.9%	8.6%
Dillon DinglerR	13.3% vs L: 18.5%	14.2% vs L: 10.1%	17.5% vs L: 16.7%	33.3% vs L: 31.5%	40.7% vs L: 50%	10.1% vs L: 10%	23.3%
Eduardo ValenciaR	21.4% vs L: 20%	32.7% vs L: 32.3%	20%	42.9% vs L: 44%	25% vs L: 25%	13.3% vs L: 25%	—
Zach McKinstryL	12.9% vs L: 0%	7.4% vs L: 12.2%	26.1% vs L: 22.2%	23.5% vs L: 25%	16.3%	7.1% vs L: 4.5%	31.4%
Spencer TorkelsonR	31.6% vs L: 17.6%	21% vs L: 16.1%	48.8% vs L: 25%	41.7% vs L: 43.8%	41.2% vs L: 25%	11.8% vs L: 5.1%	52.6%
Max ClarkL	0%	9.2% vs L: 11.1%	28.6%	21.7% vs L: 14.3%	16.7%	10.8% vs L: 16.7%	33.3%
Javier BáezR	13.6%	20% vs L: 18.2%	36.2%	28.6% vs L: 31.4%	45.5% vs L: 40%	11.8% vs L: 25%	28.6%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Gleyber Torres	3	0	0%	.333
Kevin McGonigle	3	0	0%	.000
Dillon Dingler	3	0	0%	.000
Hao-Yu Lee	2	0	0%	.500
Spencer Torkelson	2	1	50%	.500
Max Clark	2	0	0%	.500
Javier Báez	2	1	50%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Gleyber Torres	21.2%	21.9%	18.9%	87.7%
Hao-Yu Lee	31.6%	30.1%	25%	72.6%
Kevin McGonigle	19.6%	23.7%	10.4%	87.4%
Dillon Dingler	33.2%	29.5%	26.5%	77.9%
Eduardo Valencia	34.4%	40%	36.4%	72.1%
Zach McKinstry	29%	35.6%	23.3%	81.2%
Spencer Torkelson	22.5%	20%	37.5%	66.7%
Max Clark	32.3%	27.6%	20.5%	85.3%
Javier Báez	43.2%	46.9%	22.7%	67.4%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	Houston Astros	5.4	9
2026-07-19	Athletics	7.5	2
2026-07-25	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	2
2026-07-31	Atlanta Braves	4.8	3
2026-08-06	New York Mets	4.9	6
2026-08-12	Detroit Tigers	5.1	3
2026-08-18	San Francisco Giants	4.6	6
2026-08-23	Colorado Rockies	4.2	4
2026-08-29	Kansas City Royals	4.5	4
2026-09-04	Detroit Tigers	4.17	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 21.7%

!Whiff rate is 16.1%

!CSW rate is 25.7%

!Opponent K% is 21%

✓Average pitch count is 92.8

✓WHIP is 1.09

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Detroit Tigers	Home	3	1	51	1.14	—	—
2026-08-29	Kansas City Royals	Home	5	4	82	1.12	9	44.4%
2026-08-23	Colorado Rockies	Away	5	4	105	1.13	13	30.8%
2026-08-18	San Francisco Giants	Home	6	6	101	1.11	13	46.2%
2026-08-12	Detroit Tigers	Away	5	3	83	1.11	12	25%
2026-08-06	New York Mets	Home	4	6	88	1.11	13	46.2%
2026-07-31	Atlanta Braves	Away	5.1	3	78	1.07	9	33.3%
2026-07-25	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	6.2	2	108	1.03	13	15.4%
2026-07-19	Athletics	Away	7	2	97	1.03	12	16.7%
2026-07-08	Houston Astros	Home	7	9	99	1.02	15	60%