MLB pitcher strikeout

Tyler Mahle

@ Philadelphia Phillies2026-09-06PinnacleRHP

Projection

5.1

Ensemble: 5.1

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+0.6

Over 4.5

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

27.4%

Whiff%

28.8%

CSW%

31.3%

WHIP

1.36

Avg IP

5.9

Avg pitches

90.2

Last 5 avg Ks

6.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

16.2%

Platoon K%

23.5%

Team chase

31.3%

Recent chase

30.8%

Recent contact

79.9%

Recent K% (7d)

17.5%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.3%

Opp K% vs LHP

22.1%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

5.1

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.7

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 5.1

Aug 30

vs COL

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Aug 23

@ MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 18

@ MIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 12

vs NYM

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 7

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+2.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 16.2

Aug 30

vs COL

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 23

@ MIL

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 18

@ MIN

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 12

vs NYM

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 7

@ NYY

OVER

Outs

+2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Philadelphia Phillies

No prior starts found against Philadelphia Phillies.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	4.5	+106	-136	+0.6	-0.6	Best Over
DraftKings	4.5	+100	-127	+0.6	-0.6	—
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	+0.6	-0.6	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

79.6%

5+ Ks

60.9%Line

6+ Ks

40.9%

7+ Ks

24.7%

8+ Ks

12.7%

9+ Ks

5.6%

10+ Ks

2.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	48.7%	24.1%	22.6%	93.2
Splitter	31.2%	25.4%	20.9%	86.7
Cutter	16.9%	20.8%	21.4%	87.7
Slider	3.3%	33.3%	15.4%	85.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

47.8%

2-Strike Foul%

16.4%

2-Strike Contact%

67.5%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	24	41.7%	58.3%
1-2	33	48.5%	51.5%
2-2	26	57.7%	42.3%
3-2 (full)	19	47.4%	52.6%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Splitter	Cutter	Slider
Kyle SchwarberL	28.6%	35.2%	27.4% vs R: 29.7%	24.2% vs R: 22.2%	24.2% vs R: 28%	25.3% vs R: 25.7%
Trea TurnerR	16%	24.4%	20.7% vs R: 27.1%	26.9% vs R: 35.3%	25% vs R: 29.2%	20.9% vs R: 25%
Bryce HarperL	25.9%	17.5%	20.8% vs R: 14.4%	36.7% vs R: 32%	19.4% vs R: 14.3%	20.2% vs R: 17.5%
Luis ArraezL	8%	2.7%	4.8% vs R: 2.7%	3.2% vs R: 3.4%	5.6% vs R: 3.6%	4.8% vs R: 4.7%
Alec BohmR	12.7%	14.8%	12.9% vs R: 13.5%	14.3% vs R: 9.1%	28% vs R: 25%	13.2% vs R: 13%
Bryson StottL	15%	17.5%	15.2% vs R: 14.6%	8.5% vs R: 8.5%	18.8% vs R: 20%	13.4% vs R: 17.6%
Brandon MarshL	37.1%	21.2%	15.8% vs R: 12.6%	16.1% vs R: 16.7%	43.8% vs R: 35.7%	31.9% vs R: 28.1%
J.T. RealmutoR	14.1%	22.3%	16% vs R: 19.1%	16% vs R: 19%	27.3% vs R: 26.7%	18.1% vs R: 17.2%
Derek HillR	32.5%	34.7%	25.3% vs R: 24.4%	11.1%	46.2% vs R: 33.3%	20.9% vs R: 16.7%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Splitter	Cutter	Slider
Kyle SchwarberL	23.5% vs R: 24.6%	34.1% vs R: 32.4%	27% vs R: 29.2%	34.5% vs R: 29.7%
Trea TurnerR	19.6% vs R: 23.5%	46.9% vs R: 40%	25.3% vs R: 36.1%	33.2% vs R: 38.1%
Bryce HarperL	24.7% vs R: 18.2%	32.8% vs R: 29%	23.2% vs R: 20.7%	44.1% vs R: 44.9%
Luis ArraezL	7.4% vs R: 5.9%	12.8% vs R: 13.2%	7.7% vs R: 2%	9.7% vs R: 5.6%
Alec BohmR	12.7% vs R: 15.2%	21.4% vs R: 17.4%	15.4% vs R: 17.6%	19.6% vs R: 22.9%
Bryson StottL	17.7% vs R: 16.5%	13.7% vs R: 13.7%	15.9% vs R: 16.7%	21.6% vs R: 19.7%
Brandon MarshL	14.9% vs R: 11%	26.2% vs R: 25%	21.8% vs R: 19.1%	31% vs R: 26.8%
J.T. RealmutoR	17% vs R: 18%	27.6% vs R: 30.4%	30% vs R: 32.6%	27.3% vs R: 27.4%
Derek HillR	26.7% vs R: 31%	25%	28.9% vs R: 12.5%	32.9% vs R: 30.8%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Kyle Schwarber	29	6	20.7%	.300
Trea Turner	20	4	20%	.421
Bryce Harper	14	2	14.3%	.333
Luis Arraez	9	0	0%	.375
J.T. Realmuto	8	1	12.5%	.375
Alec Bohm	5	0	0%	.200
Bryson Stott	5	3	60%	.000
Brandon Marsh	4	1	25%	.000
Derek Hill	3	2	66.7%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Kyle Schwarber	26.1%	29%	26%	69%
Trea Turner	33.4%	32.7%	20%	73.9%
Bryce Harper	30.1%	23%	16.7%	78.4%
Luis Arraez	34.2%	46.6%	2.3%	95.4%
Alec Bohm	28.1%	31.5%	23.8%	77.5%
Bryson Stott	29.9%	29.1%	27.5%	81.1%
Brandon Marsh	36.2%	25.5%	28.6%	81.6%
J.T. Realmuto	28.7%	26.8%	17.6%	81.2%
Derek Hill	35.2%	33.3%	20%	81.2%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Colorado Rockies	5.2	4
2026-07-21	Kansas City Royals	3.3	4
2026-07-27	Milwaukee Brewers	4.9	3
2026-08-01	San Diego Padres	4.4	9
2026-08-07	New York Yankees	5.4	9
2026-08-12	New York Mets	4.8	7
2026-08-18	Minnesota Twins	6.1	3
2026-08-23	Milwaukee Brewers	5.9	4
2026-08-30	Colorado Rockies	6.3	9
2026-09-06	Philadelphia Phillies	5.09	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 27.4%

✓Whiff rate is 28.8%

✓CSW rate is 31.3%

!Opponent K% is 20.1%

✓Average pitch count is 90.2

!WHIP is 1.36

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-30	Colorado Rockies	Home	6.2	9	89	1.29	14	64.3%
2026-08-23	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	5	4	94	1.32	13	30.8%
2026-08-18	Minnesota Twins	Away	6.2	3	76	1.31	10	30%
2026-08-12	New York Mets	Home	6	7	93	1.32	16	43.8%
2026-08-07	New York Yankees	Away	6	9	92	1.36	14	64.3%
2026-08-01	San Diego Padres	Away	5.2	9	99	1.39	15	60%
2026-07-27	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	6	3	88	1.4	10	30%
2026-07-21	Kansas City Royals	Away	5	4	91	1.45	12	33.3%
2026-07-11	Colorado Rockies	Home	7	4	104	1.46	11	36.4%
2026-07-05	Colorado Rockies	Away	4.1	5	75	1.49	10	50%