Tyler Mahle
Aaron NolaModel pick
Braves
Win probability
50.8%
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Team Stats
Braves
Record
84-58
Win%
.592
Games Back
--
Run Diff
+119
Last 10
7-3
Streak
L1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
7th of 30
Phillies
Record
80-62
Win%
.563
Games Back
4.0
Run Diff
+35
Last 10
7-3
Streak
W1
Defense Rank (Fielding %)
13th of 30
Head-to-head · live from MLB Stats API
Team Stat Sheet
BravesPhillies| Lineup Production | ||
| 4.6 | R/GRuns scored per game | 4.5 |
| 0.312 | OBPOn-base percentage | 0.313 |
| 0.724 | OPSOn-base + slugging | 0.713 |
| 0.248 | AVGBatting average | 0.242 |
| 181 | HRHome runs | 167 |
| 660 | RunsRuns scored | 637 |
| 1158 | KBatting strikeouts | 1177 |
| 413 | BBWalks drawn | 456 |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 3.8 | RA/GRuns allowed per game | 4.2 |
| 3.58 | ERAEarned run average | 3.98 |
| 1.250 | WHIPWalks + hits per IP | 1.280 |
| 8.6 | K/9Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.9 |
| 3.4 | BB/9Walks per 9 IP | 3.1 |
| 7.8 | H/9Hits per 9 IP | 8.4 |
2026 season-to-date team stats, live from MLB Stats API.
Analytics
Model Signals
BravesPhillies| 50.8% | Win ProbabilityToss-up · Signals agree | 49.2% |
Team strengthPythagorean win profile -0.070
| ||
Starting pitcherLast-five-start FIP -0.59
| ||
BullpenRolling 7-day WHIP -0.123
| ||
Hitting formAverage OPS edge · L3/L7/L15/season -0.052
| ||
1st-inning run prediction based on today's real lineups and starters
YRFI / NRFI
Model leans
NRFI 63.5%
36.5% YRFI · 63.5% NRFI
Why
Braves: NRFI in 2 of last 5
Phillies: NRFI in 5 straight - NRFI in 5 of last 5
Tyler Mahle: hasn't allowed a 1st-inning run in 4 straight starts
Aaron Nola: no 1st-inning run in 3 of last 5 starts
A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so this reflects the model's own confidence rather than an edge against posted odds.