MLB pitcher strikeout

Anthony Kay

vs Minnesota Twins2026-09-05FanDuelLHP

Projection

4.3

Ensemble: 4.7

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.8

Over 3.5

80% (8/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

19.5%

Whiff%

24.7%

CSW%

28.2%

WHIP

1.35

Avg IP

5.4

Avg pitches

89.5

Last 5 avg Ks

4.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

17.7%

Team chase

31.1%

Recent chase

32.6%

Recent contact

81.7%

Recent K% (7d)

13%

Opp K% vs RHP

17.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

80% (8/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.3

Sep 5

vs MIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 31

@ HOU

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 25

vs TEX

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 20

vs ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 15

@ DET

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.7

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 3U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 15.7

Sep 5

vs MIN

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 31

@ HOU

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 25

vs TEX

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 20

vs ATL

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 15

@ DET

OVER

Outs

+1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Minnesota Twins

No prior starts found against Minnesota Twins.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	+133	-170	-0.2	+0.2	—
FanDuel	3.5	-150	+118	+0.8	-0.8	Best Over
Pinnacle	3.5	-161	+121	+0.8	-0.8	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

62.4%Line

5+ Ks

41.3%

6+ Ks

22.1%

7+ Ks

10.5%

8+ Ks

9+ Ks

1.5%

10+ Ks

0.4%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sweeper	24.8%	39.3%	22.8%	83
4-Seam Fastball	19.6%	21%	15.6%	95.9
Cutter	16.5%	19.5%	7.3%	92.4
Sinker	16%	17.7%	24.6%	95.7
Changeup	13.9%	33.3%	11.9%	86.4
Slider	9.2%	20.8%	18.1%	86.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

37.7%

2-Strike Foul%

22.9%

2-Strike Contact%

76.7%

Expected Ks

23.6

K Luck

-0.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	27	40.7%	59.3%
1-2	38	39.5%	60.5%
2-2	30	36.7%	63.3%
3-2 (full)	16	18.8%	81.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sinker	Changeup	Slider
Luke KeaschallR	17.3%	13.7%	10.3% vs L: 9.1%	17.5% vs L: 19.2%	9.1% vs L: 15.4%	13.8% vs L: 27.3%	16.9% vs L: 13.9%	20% vs L: 25%
Kaelen CulpepperR	26.5%	17.2%	5.9% vs L: 14.3%	5.4% vs L: 13.3%	33.3%	25% vs L: 25%	35.7% vs L: 50%	6.7% vs L: 0%
Ryan JeffersR	13.4%	18.2%	16.9% vs L: 10%	12.6% vs L: 9.3%	11.1% vs L: 11.1%	16.7% vs L: 8.3%	1.9% vs L: 0%	11.9% vs L: 26.3%
Josh BellS	18%	21.1%	26.2% vs L: 23.1%	15.5% vs L: 13.2%	20% vs L: 25%	22.1% vs L: 30%	21.5% vs L: 18.8%	10.8% vs L: 21.4%
Royce LewisR	20.7%	26.1%	18.8% vs L: 22.2%	19.2% vs L: 11.6%	13.3% vs L: 0%	16.3% vs L: 22.2%	30% vs L: 19%	28.6% vs L: 45%
Kody ClemensL	22.5%	22.5%	27.1% vs L: 30.8%	19.3% vs L: 17.3%	47.1% vs L: 50%	10.4% vs L: 8.7%	11.4% vs L: 0%	17.9% vs L: 15.2%
Brooks LeeS	23.1%	12.6%	12.8% vs L: 20%	19.6% vs L: 20.3%	14.3% vs L: 22.2%	9.6% vs L: 13.3%	12.1% vs L: 17.5%	12.6% vs L: 17.1%
Gabriel GonzalezR	—	—	—	0% vs L: 0%	—	—	—	—
Ryan KreidlerR	16%	26.2%	14.6% vs L: 12.5%	21.6% vs L: 12.8%	14.3% vs L: 0%	24% vs L: 0%	13.8% vs L: 13.6%	21.4% vs L: 33.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Cutter	Sinker	Changeup	Slider
Luke KeaschallR	18.6% vs L: 0%	10.1% vs L: 13.9%	9.8% vs L: 12.5%	9.3% vs L: 2.6%	24.4% vs L: 26%	28.8% vs L: 40.7%
Kaelen CulpepperR	41.2% vs L: 66.7%	21.3% vs L: 26.1%	16.7%	9.1% vs L: 16.7%	46.2% vs L: 54.5%	22.2% vs L: 28.6%
Ryan JeffersR	29% vs L: 12.5%	6.5% vs L: 8.3%	8.9% vs L: 9.5%	9.3% vs L: 8.7%	12% vs L: 10.7%	25.7% vs L: 20%
Josh BellS	28.3% vs L: 18.8%	16.6% vs L: 11.6%	18.7% vs L: 26.9%	11.1% vs L: 13.2%	20% vs L: 24%	18.1% vs L: 20%
Royce LewisR	36.4% vs L: 25%	23.9% vs L: 22.6%	30.1% vs L: 7.4%	18.2% vs L: 9.1%	40% vs L: 33.3%	41.7% vs L: 53.8%
Kody ClemensL	25.9% vs L: 17.9%	21.4% vs L: 30%	25% vs L: 30.8%	11.9% vs L: 9%	23.1% vs L: 20%	28.5% vs L: 23.4%
Brooks LeeS	18.8% vs L: 26.7%	13% vs L: 13.6%	10.4% vs L: 6.9%	8.7% vs L: 6.7%	23.4% vs L: 21.1%	26.2% vs L: 34%
Gabriel GonzalezR	—	0% vs L: 0%	—	—	—	—
Ryan KreidlerR	31.6% vs L: 23.1%	22.1% vs L: 21.1%	33.3% vs L: 30.8%	21.1% vs L: 14.3%	32.6% vs L: 32.5%	32.8% vs L: 20%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Josh Bell	4	1	25%	.000
Kody Clemens	3	1	33.3%	.000
Brooks Lee	3	0	0%	.500
Luke Keaschall	2	0	0%	.000
Ryan Kreidler	2	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Luke Keaschall	20.6%	24%	11.5%	86.4%
Kaelen Culpepper	42.6%	44%	13.3%	74%
Ryan Jeffers	26.6%	24%	19%	87%
Josh Bell	28.7%	23.5%	14%	87%
Royce Lewis	32.9%	40.9%	19.6%	71.8%
Kody Clemens	33.7%	33%	23.9%	81.8%
Brooks Lee	33.8%	38.9%	12.5%	87.6%
Gabriel Gonzalez	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ryan Kreidler	29.5%	32.3%	N/A	77.8%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	Boston Red Sox	3.1	4
2026-07-17	Toronto Blue Jays	2.4	5
2026-07-22	Texas Rangers	3	4
2026-07-28	New York Yankees	4.9	7
2026-08-02	Tampa Bay Rays	4.3	3
2026-08-08	Cleveland Guardians	4.3	4
2026-08-15	Detroit Tigers	2.8	4
2026-08-20	Atlanta Braves	3.7	6
2026-08-25	Texas Rangers	3.5	4
2026-08-31	Houston Astros	3.8	5
2026-09-05	Minnesota Twins	4.29	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 19.5%

!Whiff rate is 24.7%

!CSW rate is 28.2%

!Opponent K% is 19.3%

!Average pitch count is 89.5

!WHIP is 1.35

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Minnesota Twins	Home	4.1	3	82	1.36	—	—
2026-08-31	Houston Astros	Away	4.2	5	89	1.35	13	38.5%
2026-08-25	Texas Rangers	Home	4.2	4	99	1.34	13	30.8%
2026-08-20	Atlanta Braves	Home	6	6	94	1.33	14	42.9%
2026-08-15	Detroit Tigers	Away	5.1	4	86	1.34	11	36.4%
2026-08-08	Cleveland Guardians	Home	6	4	83	1.34	10	40%
2026-08-02	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	6.1	3	89	1.35	11	27.3%
2026-07-28	New York Yankees	Home	5.1	7	97	1.36	13	53.8%
2026-07-22	Texas Rangers	Away	5	4	79	1.37	10	40%
2026-07-17	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	4	5	83	1.37	12	41.7%