MLB pitcher strikeout

Ranger Suarez

@ Baltimore Orioles2026-09-04DraftKingsLHP

Projection

4.5

Ensemble: 4.5

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.0

Under 5.5

20% (2/10)· 7U streak

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Recommendation

Under 5.5

DraftKings

Confidence

80/100

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Pitcher K%

13%

Whiff%

16.4%

CSW%

25.3%

WHIP

1.18

Avg IP

4.4

Avg pitches

77.5

Last 5 avg Ks

2.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

25%

Platoon K%

22.4%

Team chase

32.6%

Recent chase

34.8%

Recent contact

78.7%

Recent K% (7d)

25.8%

Opp K% vs RHP

25.3%

Opp K% vs LHP

27.8%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.5

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.7

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 7U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 5.5Model 4.5

Sep 4

@ BAL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 30

@ NYY

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 24

@ MIA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 18

vs ARI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 12

@ TOR

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.8

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.7

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 1U streakLM ↓ -1

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15

Sep 4

@ BAL

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 30

@ NYY

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 24

@ MIA

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 18

vs ARI

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 12

@ TOR

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Baltimore Orioles

No prior starts found against Baltimore Orioles.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	5.5	-109	-117	-1.0	+1.0	Best Under
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	-1.0	+1.0	—
Pinnacle	5.5	-102	-130	-1.0	+1.0	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

68.6%

5+ Ks

46.7%

6+ Ks

27.8%Line

7+ Ks

14.2%

8+ Ks

6.1%

9+ Ks

2.1%

10+ Ks

0.7%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	25.2%	13.7%	22.1%	91.4
Sinker	19.8%	5.8%	17.5%	90
Cutter	19.2%	15.5%	10.6%	87.8
Curveball	17.9%	33.7%	26.2%	75.7
Changeup	10.9%	23.6%	6.4%	80.8
Slider	6.9%	48.5%	25%	79

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

26.9%

2-Strike Foul%

28.2%

2-Strike Contact%

87.2%

Expected Ks

22.4

K Luck

-8.4

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	24	33.3%	62.5%
1-2	31	22.6%	74.2%
2-2	30	10%	83.3%
3-2 (full)	17	17.6%	82.4%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Cutter	Curveball	Changeup	Slider
Blaze AlexanderR	23.9%	20.2%	13.8% vs L: 10.2%	12.1% vs L: 0%	33.3% vs L: 33.3%	16.7% vs L: 20%	28.1% vs L: 25%	21.3% vs L: 42.9%
Coby MayoR	27.2%	34.7%	21.4% vs L: 22.7%	10.2% vs L: 10%	35.7% vs L: 33.3%	19.1% vs L: 13.8%	20% vs L: 31%	30.3% vs L: 26.1%
Luis Robert Jr.R	23.1%	24.8%	29.5% vs L: 23.5%	21.2% vs L: 18.2%	0% vs L: 0%	27.8% vs L: 33.3%	15.4% vs L: 17.6%	13% vs L: 9.1%
Pete AlonsoR	24.2%	23.9%	15.9% vs L: 12.2%	16.9% vs L: 22.2%	26.5% vs L: 44.4%	18.8% vs L: 18.2%	15.9% vs L: 17%	19.8% vs L: 25%
Gunnar HendersonL	21%	22%	17.3% vs L: 18.9%	20.2% vs L: 20%	21.1% vs L: 11.1%	9.8% vs L: 6.7%	17.5% vs L: 14.3%	23.3% vs L: 20%
Christian Encarnacion-StrandR	30.9%	23.3%	22.4% vs L: 37.5%	17.6% vs L: 0%	10% vs L: 0%	0%	18.8% vs L: 20%	20% vs L: 17.6%
Jackson HollidayL	28.7%	21.5%	23% vs L: 37.5%	29.3% vs L: 29.4%	8.3% vs L: 0%	33.3% vs L: 22.2%	18.9% vs L: 28.6%	18.6% vs L: 15%
Carlos NarváezR	32.3%	33.7%	24% vs L: 18.8%	15% vs L: 11.1%	14.8% vs L: 15.4%	5.3% vs L: 0%	17.2% vs L: 7.1%	28.4% vs L: 27.3%
Leody TaverasS	31%	22.6%	16.2% vs L: 19.7%	20% vs L: 23.5%	15.4% vs L: 14.3%	26.7% vs L: 42.9%	19.8% vs L: 17.8%	26.4% vs L: 23.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Cutter	Curveball	Changeup	Slider
Blaze AlexanderR	26.3% vs L: 23.3%	7.5% vs L: 8.7%	17.9% vs L: 13.6%	35.7% vs L: 36.4%	29.2% vs L: 25.7%	28.6% vs L: 25%
Coby MayoR	15.3% vs L: 9.7%	13.2% vs L: 22.7%	35.9% vs L: 34.8%	36.4% vs L: 26.9%	35.9% vs L: 41.8%	43.8% vs L: 38.2%
Luis Robert Jr.R	22.8% vs L: 12.9%	11.5% vs L: 0%	25.7% vs L: 23.1%	21.7% vs L: 28.6%	38.3% vs L: 39.4%	37% vs L: 50%
Pete AlonsoR	22.1% vs L: 22%	13.4% vs L: 15.1%	25% vs L: 25%	36.7% vs L: 50%	27.4% vs L: 23.5%	34% vs L: 35.6%
Gunnar HendersonL	14.7% vs L: 11.4%	12.2% vs L: 9.1%	32.5% vs L: 35%	23.3% vs L: 27.8%	20.7% vs L: 19.2%	30.8% vs L: 31.7%
Christian Encarnacion-StrandR	20% vs L: 18.2%	18.4% vs L: 14.3%	18.2% vs L: 30%	20%	27.7% vs L: 32.3%	30.6% vs L: 34.8%
Jackson HollidayL	20% vs L: 26.7%	14.5% vs L: 10%	18.8% vs L: 0%	46.2% vs L: 42.9%	25.7% vs L: 25%	30.7% vs L: 42.9%
Carlos NarváezR	33% vs L: 27.1%	7.6% vs L: 18.2%	41.7% vs L: 38.9%	25% vs L: 33.3%	33.3% vs L: 31.8%	45.8% vs L: 43.5%
Leody TaverasS	16.9% vs L: 18.2%	14.8% vs L: 13.2%	18.2% vs L: 17.2%	31.6% vs L: 31.8%	24.6% vs L: 23.6%	27.1% vs L: 21.9%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Pete Alonso	28	7	25%	.100
Gunnar Henderson	6	2	33.3%	.333
Jackson Holliday	4	0	0%	.250
Coby Mayo	3	0	0%	.667
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3	1	33.3%	.333
Leody Taveras	3	1	33.3%	.000
Blaze Alexander	2	1	50%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Blaze Alexander	30.6%	36.6%	17.4%	80.8%
Coby Mayo	35%	32.9%	26.3%	77.9%
Luis Robert Jr.	34%	31.6%	23.1%	77.3%
Pete Alonso	28.4%	38.1%	25%	71.8%
Gunnar Henderson	26.8%	31.8%	16.7%	82.8%
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	47.5%	42.5%	27.3%	80.8%
Jackson Holliday	27%	33.3%	22.4%	82.1%
Carlos Narváez	31.1%	35.1%	33.3%	73.3%
Leody Taveras	33.1%	31.3%	33.3%	81.2%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-26	Toronto Blue Jays	4.3	6
2026-07-31	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.8	2
2026-08-06	Chicago White Sox	5.3	3
2026-08-12	Toronto Blue Jays	6.3	2
2026-08-18	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.4	3
2026-08-24	Miami Marlins	4.1	4
2026-08-30	New York Yankees	3.2	2
2026-09-04	Baltimore Orioles	4.49	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 13%

!Whiff rate is 16.4%

!CSW rate is 25.3%

✓Opponent K% is 25.2%

!Average pitch count is 77.5

!WHIP is 1.18

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Baltimore Orioles	Away	5	2	60	1.23	—	—
2026-08-30	New York Yankees	Away	5.1	2	101	1.24	10	20%
2026-08-24	Miami Marlins	Away	5	4	93	1.2	11	36.4%
2026-08-18	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	5.1	3	93	1.18	11	27.3%
2026-08-12	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	5	2	81	1.19	11	18.2%
2026-08-06	Chicago White Sox	Home	3	3	70	1.17	9	33.3%
2026-07-31	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	4.2	2	65	1.16	8	25%
2026-07-26	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	4	6	64	1.15	9	66.7%
2026-07-05	Los Angeles Angels	Away	2.2	5	53	1.16	8	62.5%
2026-06-29	Washington Nationals	Home	6	8	95	1.13	14	57.1%