MLB pitcher strikeout

Walker Buehler

vs New York Yankees2026-09-04FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.8

Ensemble: 4.5

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.3

Over 4.5

20% (2/10)· 3U streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

FanDuel

Confidence

85/100

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Pitcher K%

18.3%

Whiff%

14.2%

CSW%

24.2%

WHIP

1.41

Avg IP

5.3

Avg pitches

84.8

Last 5 avg Ks

3.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

28.4%

Platoon K%

19.6%

Team chase

30.1%

Recent chase

29.4%

Recent contact

78%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

24.9%

Opp K% vs LHP

27.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.5

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 3U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 4.8

Aug 29

@ TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 23

vs MIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 17

@ NYM

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 11

vs MIL

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 6

@ ARI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 4O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 15.2

Aug 29

@ TB

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 23

vs MIN

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 17

@ NYM

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 11

vs MIL

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 6

@ ARI

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. New York Yankees

No prior starts found against New York Yankees.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	+0.3	-0.3	Best Over
DraftKings	4.5	+112	-143	+0.3	-0.3	—
Pinnacle	4.5	+101	-134	+0.3	-0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

75.1%

5+ Ks

56.1%Line

6+ Ks

35.1%

7+ Ks

19.2%

8+ Ks

8.7%

9+ Ks

3.4%

10+ Ks

1.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Cutter	24.7%	16.2%	17.5%	90.7
Sinker	21.4%	14.7%	15.8%	94.4
4-Seam Fastball	19.6%	16%	13.8%	94.1
Slider	11.7%	23.8%	22.6%	87.3
Changeup	10.5%	29.7%	17.3%	89.6
Sweeper	6.9%	22.2%	12.2%	82.3
Knuckle Curve	5.3%	19.4%	13.3%	79.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

36.5%

2-Strike Foul%

30.7%

2-Strike Contact%

86.7%

Expected Ks

19.8

K Luck

-0.8

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	18	38.9%	55.6%
1-2	33	36.4%	63.6%
2-2	30	36.7%	63.3%
3-2 (full)	16	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Cutter	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sweeper	Knuckle Curve
Ben RiceL	27.5%	23.5%	12.5% vs R: 13%	26% vs R: 18.2%	21.3% vs R: 20.3%	21.7% vs R: 19.1%	20.8% vs R: 17.5%	19% vs R: 21.4%	23.1% vs R: 33.3%
Cody BellingerL	14.9%	16.3%	9.5% vs R: 12.5%	14% vs R: 15.2%	16.3% vs R: 16.5%	6.2% vs R: 3.8%	11.6% vs R: 10%	18.2% vs R: 18.8%	14.3% vs R: 14.3%
Luis García Jr.L	17.7%	16.3%	3.7% vs R: 0%	18.2% vs R: 10.3%	13.4% vs R: 12.6%	15.2% vs R: 19.4%	20.9% vs R: 20.9%	9.1% vs R: 8.3%	15% vs R: 18.8%
Spencer JonesL	30.2%	37.5%	0% vs R: 0%	22.2% vs R: 15%	19.8% vs R: 20.8%	29.8% vs R: 27.3%	32.5% vs R: 32.5%	16.7% vs R: 25%	37.5% vs R: 28.6%
Trent GrishamL	20.4%	17.6%	16.2% vs R: 16.1%	18.9% vs R: 14%	10.9% vs R: 9.5%	16.2% vs R: 16.2%	14.9% vs R: 12.1%	20.4% vs R: 22.2%	50% vs R: 50%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.L	35%	27.4%	20.5% vs R: 17.6%	18.3% vs R: 11.5%	22.5% vs R: 20.5%	22.4% vs R: 25%	19.5% vs R: 15.9%	26.4% vs R: 24.1%	19% vs R: 19%
George Lombard Jr.R	40%	25%	40% vs R: 40%	27.8% vs R: 21.4%	17.6% vs R: 16%	28% vs R: 27.8%	11.1%	20% vs R: 22.2%	0%
Ryan McMahonL	33.3%	29.7%	21.7% vs R: 22.7%	24.2% vs R: 30.8%	19% vs R: 17.5%	22.6% vs R: 23.9%	24% vs R: 25%	45.5% vs R: 41.2%	44.4% vs R: 44.4%
Austin WellsL	28.1%	26.3%	3.6% vs R: 4.8%	32.4% vs R: 40%	17.3% vs R: 18%	30.6% vs R: 30.8%	19.6% vs R: 17.3%	22% vs R: 26.1%	12.5% vs R: 16.7%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Cutter	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sweeper	Knuckle Curve
Ben RiceL	14.1% vs R: 13.4%	13.6% vs R: 8.1%	18% vs R: 16.6%	35.3% vs R: 33.3%	26.5% vs R: 25.5%	23.7% vs R: 19.5%	50% vs R: 50%
Cody BellingerL	13% vs R: 14.8%	7.8% vs R: 8.2%	15.2% vs R: 18.7%	21.2% vs R: 18.4%	18.4% vs R: 17.7%	25.9% vs R: 22.7%	66.7% vs R: 66.7%
Luis García Jr.L	9.9% vs R: 7%	8.1% vs R: 6%	12.6% vs R: 12.5%	25.5% vs R: 27.6%	23.1% vs R: 23.3%	9.5% vs R: 6.9%	38.1% vs R: 35.3%
Spencer JonesL	38.5% vs R: 37.5%	25.5% vs R: 29.7%	29.9% vs R: 30.6%	43.2% vs R: 47.6%	56.9% vs R: 56.9%	36% vs R: 41.2%	46.2% vs R: 41.7%
Trent GrishamL	13.9% vs R: 14.8%	6.6% vs R: 5.6%	12% vs R: 12.1%	32.3% vs R: 31.6%	25.9% vs R: 24.1%	28.6% vs R: 16%	36.4% vs R: 36.4%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.L	40% vs R: 36.2%	18.5% vs R: 18.2%	18.5% vs R: 14.8%	40.5% vs R: 40%	33% vs R: 32.2%	28.9% vs R: 27.6%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%
George Lombard Jr.R	25% vs R: 28.6%	23.9% vs R: 23.3%	26.8% vs R: 26.5%	21.2% vs R: 22.7%	20%	16.7% vs R: 11.1%	25%
Ryan McMahonL	27.8% vs R: 29.4%	15.5% vs R: 17.1%	18.5% vs R: 18.4%	34.5% vs R: 33.3%	38.5% vs R: 38.5%	54.1% vs R: 50%	53.8% vs R: 53.8%
Austin WellsL	16% vs R: 15.4%	13.4% vs R: 16%	15.8% vs R: 14%	37.6% vs R: 37%	40% vs R: 40.8%	38.6% vs R: 42.1%	33.3% vs R: 37.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Ryan McMahon	38	14	36.8%	.222
Trent Grisham	21	3	14.3%	.222
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	8	2	25%	.750
Cody Bellinger	6	1	16.7%	.200
Luis García Jr.	5	0	0%	.200
Austin Wells	3	0	0%	.333
Ben Rice	1	1	100%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Ben Rice	27.4%	18.8%	23.9%	78%
Cody Bellinger	37%	33.3%	12.8%	85.1%
Luis García Jr.	36.4%	38.3%	12.5%	75.6%
Spencer Jones	35%	37.8%	36.1%	65.9%
Trent Grisham	22.9%	24.5%	23.9%	82.9%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	28.9%	29.5%	20%	71.4%
George Lombard Jr.	28%	27.9%	28%	89.1%
Ryan McMahon	26%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Austin Wells	29.2%	24.7%	35.3%	76%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Toronto Blue Jays	4.1	1
2026-07-21	Atlanta Braves	4	3
2026-07-26	Miami Marlins	4.6	7
2026-08-01	San Francisco Giants	4.6	1
2026-08-06	Arizona Diamondbacks	3.8	3
2026-08-11	Milwaukee Brewers	2.7	5
2026-08-17	New York Mets	2.3	4
2026-08-23	Minnesota Twins	2	4
2026-08-29	Tampa Bay Rays	1.5	3
2026-09-04	New York Yankees	4.77	6

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 18.3%

!Whiff rate is 14.2%

!CSW rate is 24.2%

✓Opponent K% is 23.7%

!Average pitch count is 84.8

!WHIP is 1.41

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-29	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	5	3	71	1.36	8	37.5%
2026-08-23	Minnesota Twins	Home	6	4	86	1.35	13	30.8%
2026-08-17	New York Mets	Away	6	4	86	1.39	10	40%
2026-08-11	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	6	5	98	1.43	12	41.7%
2026-08-06	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	4	3	76	1.46	9	33.3%
2026-08-01	San Francisco Giants	Home	4.1	1	79	1.45	12	8.3%
2026-07-26	Miami Marlins	Away	5.1	7	92	1.41	13	53.8%
2026-07-21	Atlanta Braves	Away	5.2	3	90	1.43	11	27.3%
2026-07-11	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	2	1	65	1.44	7	14.3%
2026-07-06	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	5	4	93	1.39	11	36.4%