MLB pitcher strikeout

Max Fried

@ San Diego Padres2026-09-04DraftKingsLHP

Projection

5.0

Ensemble: 4.4

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.5

Over 4.5

60% (6/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

DraftKings

Confidence

83/100

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Pitcher K%

28.6%

Whiff%

25.6%

CSW%

28.1%

WHIP

0.99

Avg IP

4.7

Avg pitches

74.6

Last 5 avg Ks

5.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

23%

Platoon K%

31%

Team chase

29.5%

Recent chase

33.3%

Recent contact

77.1%

Recent K% (7d)

21.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.9%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.0

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 5.0

Aug 29

vs BOS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 13

vs SEA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 7

vs ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 1

@ CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Jul 27

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

12.5

DraftKings

Model projection

14.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.6

Selected starts

Average margin

+2.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

12.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 12.5Model 14.6

Aug 29

vs BOS

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 13

vs SEA

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 7

vs ATL

OVER

Outs

+6.5

Aug 1

@ CHC

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Jul 27

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. San Diego Padres

No prior starts found against San Diego Padres.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	+129	-166	+0.5	-0.5	Best Over
Pinnacle	4.5	+129	-172	+0.5	-0.5	—
FanDuel	4.5	+132	-170	+0.5	-0.5	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

80.8%

5+ Ks

62.9%Line

6+ Ks

41.7%

7+ Ks

24.5%

8+ Ks

12.5%

9+ Ks

5.5%

10+ Ks

1.8%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Cutter	22.9%	30.6%	41.4%	91.8
4-Seam Fastball	22.4%	12.5%	27.3%	95.3
Sinker	20.8%	19.1%	4.5%	93.6
Sweeper	13.3%	26.3%	21.7%	80.4
Curveball	10.2%	43.8%	18.8%	73.6
Changeup	8.6%	20%	14.3%	85.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

49.1%

2-Strike Foul%

26.2%

2-Strike Contact%

76.7%

Expected Ks

28.2

K Luck

-2.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	21	52.4%	47.6%
1-2	30	50%	50%
2-2	28	46.4%	53.6%
3-2 (full)	17	29.4%	70.6%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Sweeper	Curveball	Changeup
Fernando Tatis Jr.R	19.3%	18.6%	15.6% vs L: 22.2%	19.9% vs L: 15%	22.6% vs L: 19%	19.2% vs L: 25%	18.2% vs L: 18.2%	16.5% vs L: 14.8%
Samad TaylorR	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Manny MachadoR	21.1%	21.8%	2.7% vs L: 0%	21.8% vs L: 17.3%	16.7% vs L: 31.6%	22.9% vs L: 30%	17.6% vs L: 0%	23.2% vs L: 15.2%
Ty FranceR	24.6%	20%	16.7% vs L: 5.6%	17.5% vs L: 14.5%	8.5% vs L: 4.2%	11.4% vs L: 0%	25% vs L: 35%	24% vs L: 28.1%
Jackson MerrillL	27.2%	23.3%	25% vs L: 10%	22% vs L: 28.8%	14.1% vs L: 19.4%	12.7% vs L: 8.7%	13.3% vs L: 7.7%	18.6% vs L: 22.2%
Austin HaysR	17.6%	30.3%	25%	9.1%	0%	44.4%	40%	0% vs L: 0%
Xander BogaertsR	11.5%	19.8%	15.4% vs L: 12.5%	13.1% vs L: 5.3%	18.2% vs L: 11.1%	12.2% vs L: 7.7%	25% vs L: 12.5%	16.4% vs L: 12.1%
Luis CampusanoR	20%	22.6%	12.5% vs L: 20%	15.8% vs L: 20%	10.7% vs L: 25%	21.9%	33.3% vs L: 12.5%	14.8% vs L: 20%
Jake CronenworthL	18.4%	24.6%	12.9% vs L: 0%	11.3% vs L: 13%	20.8% vs L: 15%	29% vs L: 15.4%	19.4% vs L: 18.8%	23.9% vs L: 9.1%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Sweeper	Curveball	Changeup
Fernando Tatis Jr.R	27.9% vs L: 37.5%	17.4% vs L: 16.2%	13.4% vs L: 18.8%	30.1% vs L: 42.9%	37.3% vs L: 36.8%	31.2% vs L: 26.4%
Samad TaylorR	—	—	—	—	—	—
Manny MachadoR	10.8% vs L: 3.7%	21.1% vs L: 20.2%	13.1% vs L: 23.1%	35.3% vs L: 50%	30.4% vs L: 6.2%	29.7% vs L: 30.3%
Ty FranceR	27.8% vs L: 18.2%	25% vs L: 22.6%	14.5% vs L: 27.8%	19.8% vs L: 0%	38.3% vs L: 46.2%	29.6% vs L: 33.3%
Jackson MerrillL	30.3% vs L: 30.4%	25.6% vs L: 30.2%	9% vs L: 8.5%	26% vs L: 30.8%	23.7% vs L: 23.5%	25% vs L: 32%
Austin HaysR	50%	11.8%	9.1%	53.3%	40%	28.6% vs L: 33.3%
Xander BogaertsR	20.4% vs L: 30.8%	9.9% vs L: 5.4%	11.4% vs L: 4.3%	24.2% vs L: 28.6%	34% vs L: 22.2%	33.3% vs L: 27.9%
Luis CampusanoR	18.2% vs L: 37.5%	20% vs L: 12.5%	11.1% vs L: 11.1%	37.8%	42.1% vs L: 16.7%	22.9% vs L: 25%
Jake CronenworthL	17.6% vs L: 18.2%	9.6% vs L: 9.7%	15.5% vs L: 14%	31.7% vs L: 23.5%	24.4% vs L: 23.1%	40% vs L: 27.3%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Manny Machado	21	2	9.5%	.176
Jake Cronenworth	12	5	41.7%	.250
Ty France	11	5	45.5%	.000
Xander Bogaerts	11	4	36.4%	.273
Fernando Tatis Jr.	10	1	10%	.375
Austin Hays	9	0	0%	.556
Jackson Merrill	5	1	20%	.600

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Fernando Tatis Jr.	24.6%	30.6%	20%	78.5%
Samad Taylor	30.1%	38.2%	N/A	92.6%
Manny Machado	30.4%	32.6%	19.5%	81.8%
Ty France	31.9%	32%	15.6%	71.9%
Jackson Merrill	40.3%	46.8%	20%	77.6%
Austin Hays	33.8%	29%	N/A	63%
Xander Bogaerts	19.4%	24.3%	13.2%	80%
Luis Campusano	24.3%	31.7%	40.9%	67.4%
Jake Cronenworth	31%	34.9%	29.3%	81.3%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	6	7
2026-07-27	Chicago White Sox	4.8	4
2026-08-01	Chicago Cubs	4.4	7
2026-08-07	Atlanta Braves	5.6	7
2026-08-13	Seattle Mariners	7	4
2026-08-29	Boston Red Sox	6	4
2026-09-04	San Diego Padres	5.02	4

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 28.6%

!Whiff rate is 25.6%

!CSW rate is 28.1%

!Opponent K% is 21.6%

!Average pitch count is 74.6

✓WHIP is 0.99

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-29	Boston Red Sox	Home	3.2	4	63	1	10	40%
2026-08-13	Seattle Mariners	Home	5	4	88	1	13	30.8%
2026-08-07	Atlanta Braves	Home	6.1	7	90	0.97	11	63.6%
2026-08-01	Chicago Cubs	Away	5.1	7	78	0.99	11	63.6%
2026-07-27	Chicago White Sox	Away	3	4	66	1.02	8	50%
2026-07-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	5	7	57	0.96	9	77.8%
2026-05-13	Baltimore Orioles	Away	3	2	61	1.01	—	—
2026-05-08	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	6	5	94	0.95	—	—
2026-05-03	Baltimore Orioles	Home	5.1	6	107	0.89	—	—
2026-04-27	Texas Rangers	Away	6	5	89	0.8	—	—