MLB pitcher strikeout

Seth Lugo

vs Toronto Blue Jays2026-09-05DraftKingsRHP

Projection

3.8

Ensemble: 3.7

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.3

Over 3.5

40% (4/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

16.7%

Whiff%

17.6%

CSW%

24.4%

WHIP

1.38

Avg IP

5.4

Avg pitches

91.4

Last 5 avg Ks

3.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

19%

Platoon K%

17.3%

Team chase

32%

Recent chase

29%

Recent contact

83.5%

Recent K% (7d)

20%

Opp K% vs RHP

15.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

19.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.8

Sep 5

vs TOR

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 30

@ CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 25

@ TOR

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 19

vs ATH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 14

@ LAA

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.7

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 3U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 16.7

Sep 5

vs TOR

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 30

@ CLE

UNDER

Outs

-6.5

Aug 25

@ TOR

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 19

vs ATH

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 14

@ LAA

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Toronto Blue Jays

No prior starts found against Toronto Blue Jays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	+108	-138	+0.3	-0.3	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	+0.3	-0.3	—
Pinnacle	3.5	+109	-144	+0.3	-0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

53.7%Line

5+ Ks

32.2%

6+ Ks

16.1%

7+ Ks

8+ Ks

2.5%

9+ Ks

0.8%

10+ Ks

0.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	19%	7.2%	14.3%	91.5
Cutter	17.1%	24.1%	17.1%	90
Curveball	16.3%	23.3%	13.8%	77.6
4-Seam Fastball	15%	12.8%	17.1%	91.9
Sweeper	11.6%	12.3%	11.4%	79.6
Changeup	9.6%	11.8%	10.5%	85.3
Slider	8.8%	21.6%	11.1%	84.4
Slow Curve	2.4%	42.9%	35.3%	68.4

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

30.6%

2-Strike Foul%

21.3%

2-Strike Contact%

82.1%

Expected Ks

19.8

K Luck

-0.8

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	22	18.2%	81.8%
1-2	34	38.2%	61.8%
2-2	31	35.5%	64.5%
3-2 (full)	20	30%	70%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Cutter	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Changeup	Slider	Slow Curve
Brett BatemanL	21.1%	20.3%	14.3% vs R: 10%	0% vs R: 0%	10% vs R: 11.1%	34.8% vs R: 35.3%	25% vs R: 50%	25% vs R: 0%	18.8% vs R: 16.7%	—
George SpringerR	17.9%	18.5%	13.4% vs R: 11.1%	14.8% vs R: 10%	12.5% vs R: 14.3%	10.8% vs R: 12.5%	14% vs R: 12.7%	22% vs R: 25%	26% vs R: 29.2%	—
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.R	13%	12.2%	9.6% vs R: 8.5%	18.8% vs R: 13.6%	4.8% vs R: 7.1%	10.3% vs R: 9.4%	16.1% vs R: 15.2%	9.8% vs R: 12.9%	17.1% vs R: 17.7%	—
Alejandro KirkR	18.8%	9%	10.3% vs R: 10.6%	0% vs R: 0%	27.8% vs R: 33.3%	11.3% vs R: 2.1%	17.1% vs R: 10.3%	4.3% vs R: 0%	9.3% vs R: 6.2%	—
Nathan LukesL	23.1%	13%	19% vs R: 21.4%	8.6% vs R: 9.1%	12.5% vs R: 10%	10.8% vs R: 9.5%	11.1% vs R: 5.6%	7% vs R: 7.1%	9.4% vs R: 3%	—
Kazuma OkamotoR	26.5%	31.4%	22.3% vs R: 23%	29.6% vs R: 32.6%	25% vs R: 25.9%	18.1% vs R: 18.8%	18.3% vs R: 19.6%	20.5% vs R: 18.4%	26.8% vs R: 25.8%	—
Andrés GiménezL	16%	20.7%	17% vs R: 21.1%	11.8% vs R: 13.3%	5.3% vs R: 5.9%	18.1% vs R: 16.9%	18.6% vs R: 16.7%	17.9% vs R: 12.2%	17.6% vs R: 25%	—
Ernie ClementR	10.1%	9.6%	7.1% vs R: 5.7%	12% vs R: 11.8%	10.7% vs R: 15.8%	9.5% vs R: 5.7%	18.8% vs R: 18.4%	19.4% vs R: 25%	21.2% vs R: 26%	—
Myles StrawR	17.4%	8.5%	3.7% vs R: 2.9%	25% vs R: 33.3%	23.1% vs R: 20%	10.7% vs R: 4.3%	10.7% vs R: 5.6%	14.3% vs R: 20%	21.2% vs R: 14.3%	—

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Cutter	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Changeup	Slider	Slow Curve
Brett BatemanL	14.7% vs R: 15.4%	5.9% vs R: 6.2%	18.2% vs R: 18.2%	12.5% vs R: 8.3%	14.3% vs R: 0%	16.7% vs R: 11.1%	20% vs R: 20%	—
George SpringerR	11% vs R: 11%	19.3% vs R: 13%	14.8% vs R: 14.3%	17.2% vs R: 19.1%	24.8% vs R: 24.1%	32.4% vs R: 34.4%	34.2% vs R: 38.6%	—
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.R	6.1% vs R: 6.4%	20.5% vs R: 20.6%	19.6% vs R: 29.2%	14.1% vs R: 16.7%	17.5% vs R: 16.4%	28.3% vs R: 19%	23.5% vs R: 25.7%	—
Alejandro KirkR	7.6% vs R: 6.3%	2.8% vs R: 0%	36.8% vs R: 33.3%	20.8% vs R: 18.6%	17.9% vs R: 16.1%	12.1% vs R: 0%	13.8% vs R: 13.6%	—
Nathan LukesL	10.1% vs R: 12.8%	16% vs R: 15.7%	15.8% vs R: 16.2%	11.9% vs R: 11.3%	23.1% vs R: 18.2%	17.8% vs R: 17.1%	22.4% vs R: 20.5%	—
Kazuma OkamotoR	22.8% vs R: 22.8%	40.3% vs R: 44.3%	31.9% vs R: 42.5%	25.6% vs R: 27.6%	32.7% vs R: 32%	34.7% vs R: 31%	42.4% vs R: 46.2%	—
Andrés GiménezL	14.5% vs R: 16.9%	18.3% vs R: 18.3%	23.5% vs R: 23.9%	20.9% vs R: 21.4%	30.7% vs R: 29.8%	27.9% vs R: 22.9%	27.3% vs R: 32.8%	—
Ernie ClementR	2% vs R: 2.5%	16.1% vs R: 16%	9.7% vs R: 11.1%	10.9% vs R: 10.7%	28.7% vs R: 26.7%	23.8% vs R: 34.4%	23.8% vs R: 25.7%	—
Myles StrawR	3.8% vs R: 2.7%	16.2% vs R: 13.3%	22.2% vs R: 33.3%	7.4% vs R: 4.9%	25% vs R: 16.7%	11.6% vs R: 10%	21.7% vs R: 15.8%	—

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	11	2	18.2%	.200
Andrés Giménez	10	2	20%	.333
George Springer	7	3	42.9%	.286
Nathan Lukes	6	0	0%	.167
Alejandro Kirk	5	0	0%	.000
Ernie Clement	5	1	20%	.500
Myles Straw	4	1	25%	.333
Brett Bateman	3	1	33.3%	.667
Kazuma Okamoto	2	1	50%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Brett Bateman	28.4%	21.7%	23.9%	81.2%
George Springer	24%	32.3%	15.8%	75%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	29.9%	27.2%	4.3%	92.2%
Alejandro Kirk	27.2%	23.4%	19.4%	85.5%
Nathan Lukes	32.5%	31.8%	12.8%	83.1%
Kazuma Okamoto	30.5%	18.4%	25.6%	74.6%
Andrés Giménez	45.2%	42.2%	23.1%	81.8%
Ernie Clement	45.1%	47.3%	11.9%	91.7%
Myles Straw	24.8%	16.9%	10%	86%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	New York Mets	2.5	4
2026-07-12	Baltimore Orioles	2.9	6
2026-07-17	San Diego Padres	1.7	3
2026-07-22	San Francisco Giants	2.7	5
2026-07-28	Minnesota Twins	4.1	2
2026-08-02	Colorado Rockies	4	3
2026-08-08	Chicago Cubs	4	5
2026-08-14	Los Angeles Angels	3.6	4
2026-08-19	Athletics	2.9	3
2026-08-25	Toronto Blue Jays	3.4	5
2026-08-30	Cleveland Guardians	2.4	2
2026-09-05	Toronto Blue Jays	3.79	1

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 16.7%

!Whiff rate is 17.6%

!CSW rate is 24.4%

!Opponent K% is 17%

✓Average pitch count is 91.4

!WHIP is 1.38

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	5	1	95	1.44	—	—
2026-08-30	Cleveland Guardians	Away	3.2	2	93	1.42	13	15.4%
2026-08-25	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	5	5	89	1.38	14	35.7%
2026-08-19	Athletics	Home	6	3	96	1.38	11	27.3%
2026-08-14	Los Angeles Angels	Away	4.2	4	86	1.38	11	36.4%
2026-08-08	Chicago Cubs	Home	6	5	90	1.37	13	38.5%
2026-08-02	Colorado Rockies	Away	5	3	99	1.39	9	33.3%
2026-07-28	Minnesota Twins	Away	6	2	84	1.37	11	18.2%
2026-07-22	San Francisco Giants	Home	7	5	94	1.37	12	41.7%
2026-07-17	San Diego Padres	Home	6	3	90	1.41	10	30%