MLB pitcher strikeout

Nick Martinez

@ Texas Rangers2026-09-04FanDuelRHP

Projection

3.1

Model strikeouts

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.4

Under 3.5

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Under 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

18.2%

Whiff%

14.4%

CSW%

24.5%

WHIP

1.11

Avg IP

Avg pitches

83.5

Last 5 avg Ks

3.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

14.9%

Team chase

29.9%

Recent chase

29%

Recent contact

76.8%

Recent K% (7d)

17%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.9%

Opp K% vs LHP

24.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

3.1

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.1

Sep 4

@ TEX

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 29

vs SD

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 23

@ BAL

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 18

vs TOR

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 11

@ ATH

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5

Sep 4

@ TEX

UNDER

Outs

-14.5

Aug 29

vs SD

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 23

@ BAL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 18

vs TOR

UNDER

Outs

-6.5

Aug 11

@ ATH

OVER

Outs

+9.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Texas Rangers

No prior starts found against Texas Rangers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	-0.4	+0.4	Best Under
Pinnacle	3.5	+105	-139	-0.4	+0.4	—
DraftKings	3.5	+105	-134	-0.4	+0.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

No ladder projection available for this start yet.

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	30.6%	9.1%	19.4%	92.4
Changeup	26.4%	27.7%	17.3%	77.8
Cutter	22.3%	7.6%	5.9%	89.2
4-Seam Fastball	13.9%	11.6%	11.7%	92.8
Slider	4.2%	38.9%	0%	84.6
Curveball	2.6%	50%	0%	80.2

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

43.1%

2-Strike Foul%

25.6%

2-Strike Contact%

82.6%

Expected Ks

16.6

K Luck

+5.4

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	21	57.1%	42.9%
1-2	35	42.9%	57.1%
2-2	22	36.4%	63.6%
3-2 (full)	9	44.4%	55.6%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Changeup	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Curveball
Joc PedersonL	38.9%	22%	17.6% vs R: 17.6%	16.9% vs R: 16.5%	17.9% vs R: 16%	20.5% vs R: 19.9%	21.6% vs R: 22.2%	20% vs R: 14.8%
Corey SeagerL	26.1%	22.3%	15.9% vs R: 14.8%	17.6% vs R: 16.7%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%	24.1% vs R: 23.4%	26.2% vs R: 32.1%	23.1% vs R: 25%
Wyatt LangfordR	22.5%	20.1%	20% vs R: 15.9%	18.8% vs R: 16.1%	15.4% vs R: 21.4%	20% vs R: 18.8%	12.5% vs R: 11.4%	4.2% vs R: 0%
Brandon NimmoL	19%	22.4%	18.2% vs R: 15.4%	25.6% vs R: 23.6%	14.3% vs R: 12.5%	14.9% vs R: 15.6%	18.6% vs R: 21.3%	8.6% vs R: 9.4%
Ezequiel DuranR	22.4%	23.8%	12.5% vs R: 14.1%	6.9% vs R: 3%	15.4% vs R: 16.7%	15.5% vs R: 15.2%	25.2% vs R: 29.7%	28.6% vs R: 21.1%
Jake BurgerR	27%	26.6%	15.7% vs R: 16.4%	32.3% vs R: 34.3%	20% vs R: 21.4%	26.3% vs R: 27.2%	21% vs R: 18.3%	32.1% vs R: 30.8%
Evan CarterL	34.3%	22%	11.1% vs R: 8.3%	18.2% vs R: 18.6%	21.4% vs R: 20.8%	17.8% vs R: 15.8%	23.4% vs R: 20%	19.2% vs R: 19%
Cody FreemanR	14.6%	15%	0% vs R: 0%	0%	30% vs R: 33.3%	10% vs R: 9.5%	13.3% vs R: 14.3%	28.6%
Elias DíazR	22.4%	25.9%	13% vs R: 5.9%	9.1% vs R: 25%	25% vs R: 28.6%	17% vs R: 22.4%	28.2% vs R: 17.4%	17.6%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Changeup	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Curveball
Joc PedersonL	21.9% vs R: 21.3%	26.9% vs R: 27.4%	22.8% vs R: 22.4%	25.8% vs R: 26%	38.6% vs R: 37.8%	25.4% vs R: 24.6%
Corey SeagerL	23% vs R: 24%	30.9% vs R: 31.2%	7.9% vs R: 8.3%	27% vs R: 29.1%	43% vs R: 45.8%	35.5% vs R: 34.8%
Wyatt LangfordR	10.6% vs R: 8.5%	34.6% vs R: 25%	23.6% vs R: 26.1%	15.4% vs R: 16.8%	19.2% vs R: 24.6%	30.8% vs R: 22.2%
Brandon NimmoL	14% vs R: 13%	19.8% vs R: 18.5%	18.6% vs R: 16.8%	17.4% vs R: 18.1%	28.2% vs R: 26%	14.3% vs R: 13.5%
Ezequiel DuranR	10.8% vs R: 12.5%	21.4% vs R: 11.9%	20.3% vs R: 20.4%	23.8% vs R: 24.8%	39.6% vs R: 42.7%	34.3% vs R: 31.8%
Jake BurgerR	15.1% vs R: 16.2%	46.6% vs R: 46.7%	30.5% vs R: 38.5%	25.8% vs R: 26.8%	44% vs R: 43.6%	31% vs R: 20%
Evan CarterL	12.4% vs R: 14.8%	34.8% vs R: 35.1%	30% vs R: 27.7%	15.5% vs R: 13.4%	39.7% vs R: 31.9%	43.3% vs R: 41.7%
Cody FreemanR	4.2% vs R: 0%	23.1%	20% vs R: 33.3%	6.9% vs R: 3.4%	21.1% vs R: 40%	40%
Elias DíazR	11.7% vs R: 7%	29.3% vs R: 57.1%	20% vs R: 27.3%	23.8% vs R: 27.6%	43.3% vs R: 36.6%	20%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Brandon Nimmo	10	2	20%	.300
Elias Díaz	8	2	25%	.500
Joc Pederson	7	3	42.9%	.400
Jake Burger	5	2	40%	.000
Ezequiel Duran	2	1	50%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Joc Pederson	33.3%	33.3%	25.9%	76.9%
Corey Seager	24.6%	20.2%	15.1%	75%
Wyatt Langford	27.5%	29.4%	11.1%	81.7%
Brandon Nimmo	28.9%	24.1%	20.8%	78.6%
Ezequiel Duran	35%	31.4%	19.6%	70.4%
Jake Burger	34.3%	34%	25%	67%
Evan Carter	21.1%	25%	21.4%	80.6%
Cody Freeman	27%	32%	6.4%	93.2%
Elias Díaz	37.2%	32%	29%	68.1%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Seattle Mariners	2.2	1
2026-07-20	Toronto Blue Jays	0.5	0
2026-07-25	Cleveland Guardians	1.5	5
2026-07-31	Chicago White Sox	2.1	2
2026-08-05	Colorado Rockies	2.4	4
2026-08-11	Athletics	2.4	5
2026-08-18	Toronto Blue Jays	2.4	5
2026-08-23	Baltimore Orioles	2.6	4
2026-08-29	San Diego Padres	2.4	4
2026-09-04	Texas Rangers	3.1	4

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 18.2%

!Whiff rate is 14.4%

!CSW rate is 24.5%

✓Opponent K% is 23.2%

!Average pitch count is 83.5

✓WHIP is 1.11

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Texas Rangers	Away	1	1	19	1.1	—	—
2026-08-29	San Diego Padres	Home	6	4	81	1.1	9	44.4%
2026-08-23	Baltimore Orioles	Away	6	4	86	1.1	14	28.6%
2026-08-18	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	3.2	5	82	1.14	10	50%
2026-08-11	Athletics	Away	9	5	101	1.09	9	55.6%
2026-08-05	Colorado Rockies	Away	5.2	4	75	1.1	9	44.4%
2026-07-31	Chicago White Sox	Home	6	2	77	1.1	12	16.7%
2026-07-25	Cleveland Guardians	Home	6	5	84	1.1	14	35.7%
2026-07-20	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	6	0	82	1.12	8	0%
2026-07-10	Seattle Mariners	Home	5.1	1	70	1.12	9	11.1%