MLB pitcher strikeout

Erick Fedde

vs Minnesota Twins2026-09-04DraftKingsRHP

Projection

3.6

Ensemble: 3.5

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

No qualifying edge

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

17.8%

Whiff%

20%

CSW%

25.3%

WHIP

1.39

Avg IP

3.2

Avg pitches

54.2

Last 5 avg Ks

2.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

18.7%

Team chase

31.2%

Recent chase

31.4%

Recent contact

79.9%

Recent K% (7d)

16.3%

Opp K% vs RHP

16.9%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

2.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.6

Sep 4

vs MIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 29

@ MIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 23

vs NYM

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 18

@ CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 13

vs CIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

13.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Outs

10.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-4.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 13.8

Sep 4

vs MIN

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Aug 29

@ MIN

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 23

vs NYM

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 18

@ CHC

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 13

vs CIN

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Minnesota Twins

No prior starts found against Minnesota Twins.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	+134	-172	+0.1	-0.1	—
Pinnacle	3.5	+120	-160	+0.1	-0.1	—
FanDuel	3.5	+134	-172	+0.1	-0.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

49.7%Line

5+ Ks

28.7%

6+ Ks

12.8%

7+ Ks

5.2%

8+ Ks

1.6%

9+ Ks

0.5%

10+ Ks

0.2%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sweeper	36.1%	21.4%	17.7%	82.4
Sinker	33.1%	16.8%	19.8%	94.1
Cutter	18%	19.4%	11.1%	92.4
Changeup	11.9%	20%	13.2%	88.9

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

40.6%

2-Strike Foul%

23.1%

2-Strike Contact%

76.2%

Expected Ks

12.2

K Luck

+0.8

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	11	54.5%	45.5%
1-2	17	41.2%	58.8%
2-2	19	42.1%	57.9%
3-2 (full)	13	30.8%	69.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sweeper	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup
Luke KeaschallR	17.4%	13.9%	10.8% vs R: 11.1%	14.3% vs R: 11.5%	10% vs R: 5.9%	16.9% vs R: 20.7%
Brooks LeeS	23.3%	12.7%	12.8% vs R: 7.4%	9.8% vs R: 8.3%	14.3% vs R: 8.3%	12.1% vs R: 9%
Kody ClemensL	22.8%	22.6%	27.1% vs R: 22.7%	10.4% vs R: 12%	47.1% vs R: 46.2%	11.4% vs R: 12.3%
Ryan JeffersR	13.6%	17.9%	16.1% vs R: 19.4%	17% vs R: 20%	11.1% vs R: 11.1%	1.9% vs R: 5.6%
Josh BellS	18.1%	21.2%	26.8% vs R: 28.6%	22.1% vs R: 18.8%	20% vs R: 16.7%	21.5% vs R: 23.7%
Trevor LarnachL	23.1%	16.6%	23.7% vs R: 15.4%	9.8% vs R: 8.7%	9.5% vs R: 11.8%	21% vs R: 20.3%
Royce LewisR	20%	26.3%	19.4% vs R: 18.9%	16.7% vs R: 15.4%	13.3% vs R: 16.7%	30% vs R: 37.9%
Kaelen CulpepperR	27.3%	18.2%	6.2% vs R: 0%	25% vs R: 25%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	35.7% vs R: 30%
Walker JenkinsL	40%	10.5%	—	—	0% vs R: 0%	100% vs R: 100%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sweeper	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup
Luke KeaschallR	16.7% vs R: 19.3%	9.5% vs R: 11.8%	10.1% vs R: 8.8%	24.4% vs R: 21.9%
Brooks LeeS	19.4% vs R: 12.1%	8.8% vs R: 9.9%	10.4% vs R: 12.5%	23.4% vs R: 24.8%
Kody ClemensL	26.4% vs R: 36%	11.9% vs R: 14.5%	25.5% vs R: 23.7%	23.1% vs R: 23.3%
Ryan JeffersR	28.8% vs R: 34.9%	9.3% vs R: 9.5%	9.1% vs R: 8.7%	12% vs R: 13.6%
Josh BellS	27.5% vs R: 31.4%	11.2% vs R: 10.3%	18.7% vs R: 14.3%	20% vs R: 17.4%
Trevor LarnachL	37.5% vs R: 21.4%	12.4% vs R: 13.8%	10.3% vs R: 11.4%	35.7% vs R: 35.4%
Royce LewisR	35.6% vs R: 37.3%	18.6% vs R: 21.5%	30.1% vs R: 41.1%	40% vs R: 48.6%
Kaelen CulpepperR	43.8% vs R: 30%	9.5% vs R: 6.7%	17.6% vs R: 16.7%	46.2% vs R: 40%
Walker JenkinsL	—	—	50% vs R: 33.3%	27.3% vs R: 27.3%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Trevor Larnach	15	4	26.7%	.167
Brooks Lee	7	1	14.3%	.000
Josh Bell	7	3	42.9%	.000
Luke Keaschall	5	0	0%	.400
Ryan Jeffers	3	0	0%	.000
Kody Clemens	2	0	0%	.000
Royce Lewis	2	1	50%	.000
Kaelen Culpepper	2	1	50%	.000
Walker Jenkins	2	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Luke Keaschall	20.1%	19.3%	11.5%	88.1%
Brooks Lee	34.1%	39.1%	14.6%	87%
Kody Clemens	33.8%	33.7%	23.9%	79.6%
Ryan Jeffers	26.6%	26%	16.3%	89%
Josh Bell	28.7%	22.9%	15.9%	85.7%
Trevor Larnach	29.7%	25.4%	9.7%	72.7%
Royce Lewis	32.9%	40.2%	17.4%	73.8%
Kaelen Culpepper	43.9%	45.5%	13.3%	72.4%
Walker Jenkins	30.8%	30.8%	16.7%	70.8%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-20	Texas Rangers	1.9	6
2026-07-26	Houston Astros	4.2	2
2026-07-31	Tampa Bay Rays	3.8	6
2026-08-29	Minnesota Twins	0	4
2026-09-04	Minnesota Twins	3.56	2

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 17.8%

!Whiff rate is 20%

!CSW rate is 25.3%

!Opponent K% is 19%

!Average pitch count is 54.2

!WHIP is 1.39

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Minnesota Twins	Home	3	0	49	1.36	—	—
2026-08-29	Minnesota Twins	Away	5	4	88	1.37	14	28.6%
2026-08-23	New York Mets	Home	4	2	56	1.39	4	50%
2026-08-18	Chicago Cubs	Away	4.2	5	78	1.4	9	55.6%
2026-08-13	Cincinnati Reds	Home	3	1	51	1.41	3	33.3%
2026-08-07	Cleveland Guardians	Home	1	1	15	1.39	2	50%
2026-08-06	Boston Red Sox	Away	0.1	0	5	1.4	0	—
2026-08-04	Boston Red Sox	Away	3	1	50	1.39	8	12.5%
2026-07-31	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	5	6	91	1.37	12	50%
2026-07-26	Houston Astros	Home	4.1	2	68	1.4	8	25%