MLB pitcher strikeout

Tyler Glasnow

vs Washington Nationals2026-09-05FanDuelRHP

Projection

6.6

Ensemble: 7.2

Market line

7.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.9

Under 7.5

30% (3/10)· 4U streak

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Recommendation

Under 7.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

78/100

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Pitcher K%

29.5%

Whiff%

27.8%

CSW%

30.9%

WHIP

0.84

Avg IP

5.7

Avg pitches

85.4

Last 5 avg Ks

4.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

26.8%

Team chase

33.1%

Recent chase

31.5%

Recent contact

77.9%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

20.1%

Opp K% vs LHP

25.3%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

7.5

FanDuel

Model projection

6.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 4U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

7.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 7.5Model 6.6

Sep 5

vs WSH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-7.5

Aug 30

@ DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 25

@ ATL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

May 6

@ HOU

UNDER

Strikeouts

-5.5

Apr 29

vs MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

18.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.5

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.8

Selected starts

Average margin

-2.7

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

18.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 18.5Model 16.5

Sep 5

vs WSH

UNDER

Outs

-15.5

Aug 30

@ DET

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 25

@ ATL

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

May 6

@ HOU

UNDER

Outs

-15.5

Apr 29

vs MIA

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Washington Nationals

No prior starts found against Washington Nationals.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	7.5	+112	-142	-0.9	+0.9	Best Under
DraftKings	7.5	+110	-141	-0.9	+0.9	—
Pinnacle	7.5	+118	-157	-0.9	+0.9	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

91.7%

5+ Ks

81.1%

6+ Ks

65.7%

7+ Ks

47.5%

8+ Ks

30%Line

9+ Ks

15.6%

10+ Ks

7.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	46%	8.6%	26.7%	95.6
Slider	20.1%	41.2%	28.6%	90.1
Knuckle Curve	17.2%	50%	38.5%	81.1
Sinker	16.1%	30.8%	22.2%	96

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

48.1%

2-Strike Foul%

11.1%

2-Strike Contact%

64.3%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	6	66.7%	33.3%
1-2	13	53.8%	46.2%
2-2	13	30.8%	69.2%
3-2 (full)	8	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Knuckle Curve	Sinker
James WoodL	32.4%	26.5%	21.5% vs R: 21.2%	26.6% vs R: 22.4%	50% vs R: 58.3%	21.3% vs R: 21.4%
Daylen LileL	23.1%	17.7%	16.8% vs R: 16.9%	31.5% vs R: 27.8%	27.3% vs R: 22.2%	11.6% vs R: 17.9%
Abimelec OrtizL	62.5%	20.2%	15.6% vs R: 11.9%	19% vs R: 21.1%	—	0% vs R: 0%
CJ AbramsL	31.3%	20.7%	15.3% vs R: 12.5%	24.2% vs R: 21.1%	30.8% vs R: 22.2%	16% vs R: 14.3%
Brady HouseR	24.4%	28.2%	30.7% vs R: 33.3%	24.1% vs R: 26.1%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%	21.4% vs R: 21.9%
Jorbit VivasL	7.5%	14.1%	8.2% vs R: 7.5%	13% vs R: 15.8%	40% vs R: 40%	11.4% vs R: 10.7%
José TenaL	36.8%	30.7%	19.4% vs R: 18.6%	37.5% vs R: 41.9%	50% vs R: 50%	20% vs R: 19%
Keibert RuizS	17.8%	8.4%	8.2% vs R: 8.7%	20% vs R: 12.5%	—	9.1% vs R: 16.7%
Dylan CrewsR	22.6%	25.5%	17.8% vs R: 14.3%	27.9% vs R: 28.9%	—	23.2% vs R: 29%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Knuckle Curve	Sinker
James WoodL	16.2% vs R: 15.6%	45.7% vs R: 42.4%	56.2% vs R: 64.3%	12% vs R: 13.7%
Daylen LileL	20.5% vs R: 18.7%	27.8% vs R: 28.2%	18.2% vs R: 10%	11.8% vs R: 15.9%
Abimelec OrtizL	21.6% vs R: 20.8%	29.4% vs R: 31.2%	—	4% vs R: 4.8%
CJ AbramsL	23% vs R: 22.6%	35.4% vs R: 30.8%	33.3% vs R: 21.4%	10.5% vs R: 9.1%
Brady HouseR	27% vs R: 26.3%	37.8% vs R: 40.6%	20% vs R: 20%	13.6% vs R: 12.5%
Jorbit VivasL	7.2% vs R: 6.4%	17.6% vs R: 21%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%	6.2% vs R: 5.5%
José TenaL	22.3% vs R: 21.6%	46.8% vs R: 48.2%	71.4% vs R: 71.4%	15.3% vs R: 15.4%
Keibert RuizS	6% vs R: 7.8%	19.3% vs R: 15.1%	—	9.2% vs R: 16.7%
Dylan CrewsR	22.4% vs R: 19.4%	53% vs R: 53.9%	—	8.8% vs R: 9.3%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
CJ Abrams	6	2	33.3%	.500
James Wood	3	2	66.7%	.000
Daylen Lile	3	0	0%	.000
Brady House	3	2	66.7%	.000
Jorbit Vivas	2	1	50%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
James Wood	20.2%	N/A	N/A	73.3%
Daylen Lile	39.9%	27.6%	14%	82.4%
Abimelec Ortiz	37.7%	40.7%	24.4%	77.9%
CJ Abrams	38.8%	34.6%	34.1%	67.7%
Brady House	34%	28.8%	16.7%	84.8%
Jorbit Vivas	29.6%	28%	8.1%	87.1%
José Tena	29.4%	30.2%	22.2%	72.7%
Keibert Ruiz	37.2%	29.3%	8%	84.6%
Dylan Crews	31.2%	32.7%	29.2%	70.5%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-25	Atlanta Braves	7.4	7
2026-08-30	Detroit Tigers	8.1	6
2026-09-05	Washington Nationals	6.59	8

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 29.5%

!Whiff rate is 27.8%

✓CSW rate is 30.9%

!Opponent K% is 22.6%

!Average pitch count is 85.4

✓WHIP is 0.84

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Washington Nationals	Home	1	0	11	0.8	—	—
2026-08-30	Detroit Tigers	Away	7	6	85	0.81	13	46.2%
2026-08-25	Atlanta Braves	Away	5	7	89	0.87	14	50%
2026-05-06	Houston Astros	Away	1	2	19	0.83	—	—
2026-04-29	Miami Marlins	Home	5.2	9	92	0.83	—	—
2026-04-23	San Francisco Giants	Away	8	9	105	0.7	—	—
2026-04-17	Colorado Rockies	Away	7	7	92	0.84	—	—
2026-04-10	Texas Rangers	Home	6	7	100	0.94	—	—
2026-04-04	Washington Nationals	Away	6	9	101	0.92	—	—
2026-03-28	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	6	6	90	0.83	—	—