MLB pitcher strikeout

Carlos Rodón

@ San Diego Padres2026-09-05PinnacleLHP

Projection

4.6

Ensemble: 4.6

Market line

5.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+0.9

Under 5.5

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Under 5.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

22.9%

Whiff%

29.7%

CSW%

25.9%

WHIP

1.23

Avg IP

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

4.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

25.9%

Platoon K%

25.1%

Team chase

29.9%

Recent chase

34.4%

Recent contact

77.9%

Recent K% (7d)

20.4%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.1%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

4.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 4.6

Sep 5

@ SD

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 29

vs BOS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 23

vs TOR

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 18

@ BAL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Jun 28

@ BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

14.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.3

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 14.6

Sep 5

@ SD

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 29

vs BOS

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 23

vs TOR

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 18

@ BAL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Jun 28

@ BOS

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. San Diego Padres

No prior starts found against San Diego Padres.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	5.5	+121	-161	-0.9	+0.9	Best Under
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	+0.1	-0.1	—
DraftKings	5.5	+129	-165	-0.9	+0.9	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

70.3%

5+ Ks

50.1%

6+ Ks

30.2%Line

7+ Ks

15.7%

8+ Ks

6.7%

9+ Ks

2.8%

10+ Ks

0.8%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	45.2%	21.1%	21.3%	94.5
Slider	23.4%	39.2%	25%	86.1
Changeup	17.3%	35.3%	13.9%	85.4
Sinker	12.7%	14.6%	12.5%	93.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

38.6%

2-Strike Foul%

23.8%

2-Strike Contact%

75.3%

Expected Ks

24.2

K Luck

-2.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	17	47.1%	52.9%
1-2	27	48.1%	51.9%
2-2	29	27.6%	72.4%
3-2 (full)	20	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sinker
Fernando Tatis Jr.R	18.9%	18.5%	19.6% vs L: 14.3%	25% vs L: 27.8%	16.5% vs L: 14.8%	22.6% vs L: 19%
Xander BogaertsR	12.1%	19.9%	13.1% vs L: 5.3%	17.5% vs L: 23.1%	17.6% vs L: 14.7%	19.1% vs L: 11.1%
Manny MachadoR	21.4%	21.7%	21.8% vs L: 17.3%	18.2% vs L: 50%	22.9% vs L: 14.7%	16.7% vs L: 31.6%
Ty FranceR	25%	19.9%	17.5% vs L: 14.5%	16.9% vs L: 11.8%	25.5% vs L: 30.3%	8.5% vs L: 4.2%
Jackson MerrillL	26.8%	23.2%	21.9% vs L: 28.8%	20.3% vs L: 20%	18.4% vs L: 22.2%	13.9% vs L: 19.4%
Luis CampusanoR	25%	22.1%	16.7% vs L: 23.1%	18.8%	13.3% vs L: 12.5%	12.9% vs L: 25%
Freddy FerminR	18.6%	20.6%	14.6% vs L: 14.3%	21.7% vs L: 41.7%	20.7% vs L: 11.1%	21.2% vs L: 0%
Jake CronenworthL	17.9%	24.5%	11.2% vs L: 12.5%	22.5% vs L: 14.3%	23.6% vs L: 9.1%	19.6% vs L: 13%
Samad TaylorR	25.7%	29.3%	23.3% vs L: 22.7%	33.3% vs L: 25%	10% vs L: 0%	16.7% vs L: 33.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sinker
Fernando Tatis Jr.R	17.7% vs L: 17.4%	33.8% vs L: 31.6%	31.2% vs L: 26.4%	13.2% vs L: 17.1%
Xander BogaertsR	9.9% vs L: 5.4%	35.8% vs L: 47.4%	33.7% vs L: 28.6%	11.8% vs L: 4.3%
Manny MachadoR	21.1% vs L: 20.2%	31.4% vs L: 43.8%	29.5% vs L: 29.9%	13.5% vs L: 25%
Ty FranceR	24.9% vs L: 22.6%	24.8% vs L: 23.8%	30.5% vs L: 34.5%	14.5% vs L: 27%
Jackson MerrillL	25.4% vs L: 29.9%	29.4% vs L: 27.5%	24.7% vs L: 32%	10.1% vs L: 10.8%
Luis CampusanoR	19.1% vs L: 10.5%	44%	21.6% vs L: 20%	10.6% vs L: 11.1%
Freddy FerminR	18.2% vs L: 10.7%	38.1% vs L: 46.7%	47.1% vs L: 42.9%	11.8% vs L: 0%
Jake CronenworthL	9.6% vs L: 9.7%	30.8% vs L: 20%	40.2% vs L: 27.3%	15.2% vs L: 13.3%
Samad TaylorR	14.7% vs L: 9.7%	27.3% vs L: 25%	22.2% vs L: 18.2%	12.8% vs L: 0%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Manny Machado	25	8	32%	.227
Xander Bogaerts	17	2	11.8%	.429
Jake Cronenworth	12	4	33.3%	.182
Fernando Tatis Jr.	6	3	50%	.000
Ty France	6	1	16.7%	.000
Luis Campusano	5	1	20%	.000
Freddy Fermin	3	0	0%	.333
Jackson Merrill	2	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Fernando Tatis Jr.	24.6%	29.5%	18.4%	78.8%
Xander Bogaerts	19.8%	26.3%	16.7%	78.3%
Manny Machado	30.4%	32%	20%	81%
Ty France	31.9%	32.1%	16.3%	71.6%
Jackson Merrill	40.2%	45.9%	18.4%	77.8%
Luis Campusano	25.3%	35.4%	34.6%	70.9%
Freddy Fermin	35.7%	36.7%	18.8%	67.9%
Jake Cronenworth	31.1%	34.8%	27.3%	81.1%
Samad Taylor	30.1%	36.6%	20%	94.1%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-18	Baltimore Orioles	7.7	4
2026-08-23	Toronto Blue Jays	6	2
2026-08-29	Boston Red Sox	5.6	5
2026-09-05	San Diego Padres	4.6	7

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 22.9%

✓Whiff rate is 29.7%

!CSW rate is 25.9%

!Opponent K% is 21.3%

!Average pitch count is 88

!WHIP is 1.23

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	San Diego Padres	Away	5	7	89	1.17	—	—
2026-08-29	Boston Red Sox	Home	4.2	5	88	1.19	14	35.7%
2026-08-23	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	4	2	76	1.21	7	28.6%
2026-08-18	Baltimore Orioles	Away	4	4	66	1.23	10	40%
2026-06-28	Boston Red Sox	Away	5	6	96	1.25	14	42.9%
2026-06-23	Detroit Tigers	Away	5.1	5	87	1.28	12	41.7%
2026-06-17	Chicago White Sox	Home	5	7	99	1.25	14	50%
2026-06-10	Cleveland Guardians	Away	6	7	96	1.19	14	50%
2026-06-04	Cleveland Guardians	Home	6	7	96	1.2	—	—
2026-05-29	Athletics	Away	6	3	93	1.32	—	—