MLB pitcher strikeout

Jeffrey Springs

@ Seattle Mariners2026-09-05FanDuelLHP

Projection

4.4

Ensemble: 4.4

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.9

Over 3.5

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

12.2%

Whiff%

20.6%

CSW%

24.4%

WHIP

1.45

Avg IP

4.4

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

2.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

23.6%

Platoon K%

15%

Team chase

30%

Recent chase

28.6%

Recent contact

75.1%

Recent K% (7d)

17.6%

Opp K% vs RHP

22%

Opp K% vs LHP

23.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.4

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.4

Aug 30

vs BAL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 24

vs MIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 19

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Jul 31

vs DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Jul 26

@ MIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

14.7

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-2.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 14.7

Aug 30

vs BAL

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 24

vs MIN

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 19

@ KC

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Jul 31

vs DET

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Jul 26

@ MIN

UNDER

Outs

-11.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Seattle Mariners

No prior starts found against Seattle Mariners.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	-178	+138	+0.9	-0.9	Best Over
DraftKings	4.5	+127	-162	-0.1	+0.1	—
Pinnacle	3.5	-192	+143	+0.9	-0.9	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

66.7%Line

5+ Ks

45.7%

6+ Ks

26.6%

7+ Ks

14.1%

8+ Ks

5.7%

9+ Ks

2.1%

10+ Ks

0.7%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	44%	13.4%	14.4%	91.4
Changeup	26.6%	32.4%	14.3%	79.5
Slider	21.9%	18.3%	14.3%	84.6
Sweeper	4.5%	0%	0%	78.8
Cutter	3%	20%	40%	87.2

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

24.5%

2-Strike Foul%

22.9%

2-Strike Contact%

85.5%

Expected Ks

15.4

K Luck

-3.4

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	21	33.3%	66.7%
1-2	26	23.1%	76.9%
2-2	19	47.4%	52.6%
3-2 (full)	15	13.3%	86.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Slider	Sweeper	Cutter
Randy ArozarenaR	18.1%	22.7%	21.7% vs L: 24.1%	9.2% vs L: 11.4%	22.2% vs L: 28.6%	14.6% vs L: 5.3%	8.1% vs L: 14.3%
Dominic CanzoneL	22%	21.4%	16.8% vs L: 13.3%	18.9% vs L: 16.7%	22.5% vs L: 15.6%	23.3% vs L: 7.1%	10.3% vs L: 22.2%
Julio RodríguezR	24.7%	21.6%	17.1% vs L: 17.2%	12% vs L: 12.2%	15.4% vs L: 12.5%	23.1% vs L: 23.1%	24.2% vs L: 42.9%
Cal RaleighS	35.5%	28.8%	21.1% vs L: 25%	16.3% vs L: 17.1%	22.6% vs L: 18.6%	21.7% vs L: 35.3%	20.5% vs L: 23.1%
Josh NaylorL	15.9%	11.4%	8.7% vs L: 10.5%	13.6% vs L: 9.1%	20.7% vs L: 22.9%	20.9% vs L: 25%	17.2% vs L: 33.3%
J.P. CrawfordL	17.5%	21.6%	13.1% vs L: 15.1%	15%	20.7% vs L: 7.1%	14.3% vs L: 11.8%	21.4% vs L: 42.9%
Taylor WardR	20.8%	21.6%	18% vs L: 16.9%	7.2% vs L: 7.3%	15.1% vs L: 23.3%	15% vs L: 23.5%	14.6% vs L: 15.8%
Cole YoungL	19.9%	15.8%	11.9% vs L: 12.3%	17.5% vs L: 12.5%	19% vs L: 30.2%	25.7% vs L: 30.6%	19.4% vs L: 0%
Weston WilsonR	34.1%	29.1%	18.9% vs L: 20%	27% vs L: 26.5%	16% vs L: 25%	16.7% vs L: 23.1%	26.3% vs L: 28.6%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Slider	Sweeper	Cutter
Randy ArozarenaR	27.3% vs L: 22.9%	20% vs L: 17.5%	29.7% vs L: 25%	22% vs L: 14.3%	23.1% vs L: 27.3%
Dominic CanzoneL	15.7% vs L: 17.5%	26.8% vs L: 28.6%	36.9% vs L: 31.2%	32.4% vs L: 30.8%	18.6% vs L: 33.3%
Julio RodríguezR	23.9% vs L: 23.1%	30.7% vs L: 31.5%	31.9% vs L: 29.3%	33.7% vs L: 42.9%	21.3% vs L: 24.2%
Cal RaleighS	26.8% vs L: 31.2%	37.2% vs L: 38.3%	35.8% vs L: 38.9%	30.4% vs L: 30.8%	29.5% vs L: 30%
Josh NaylorL	5.8% vs L: 10.3%	19.8% vs L: 16.7%	29% vs L: 30%	30% vs L: 34.2%	10.5% vs L: 17.6%
J.P. CrawfordL	16.9% vs L: 24.1%	12.2%	22.4% vs L: 15.9%	19.4% vs L: 8.3%	13.9% vs L: 20%
Taylor WardR	17.7% vs L: 11.9%	15.1% vs L: 12%	23.3% vs L: 25.6%	20.8% vs L: 33.3%	20% vs L: 19.2%
Cole YoungL	15.4% vs L: 13.5%	20.7% vs L: 8.3%	28.8% vs L: 41.8%	29.4% vs L: 30.6%	19.1% vs L: 25.9%
Weston WilsonR	24.2% vs L: 20.9%	44.9% vs L: 43.8%	45.8% vs L: 62.5%	32.4% vs L: 21.4%	20.6% vs L: 21.7%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Julio Rodríguez	17	7	41.2%	.235
J.P. Crawford	17	2	11.8%	.188
Randy Arozarena	15	3	20%	.286
Taylor Ward	12	1	8.3%	.182
Cal Raleigh	11	4	36.4%	.000
Josh Naylor	7	2	28.6%	.167
Cole Young	4	1	25%	.250
Dominic Canzone	2	1	50%	.000
Weston Wilson	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Randy Arozarena	28.7%	21.1%	24%	74.4%
Dominic Canzone	36.3%	38%	25.5%	75%
Julio Rodríguez	38.7%	33.3%	30%	72.3%
Cal Raleigh	34%	29.8%	31%	64.9%
Josh Naylor	39.8%	45.5%	16.3%	85.7%
J.P. Crawford	18.2%	12.7%	20.5%	87%
Taylor Ward	18%	25.4%	28.6%	78.9%
Cole Young	30.7%	30.2%	18.6%	77.8%
Weston Wilson	25.4%	21.6%	52.9%	60%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	Detroit Tigers	2.3	4
2026-07-20	Arizona Diamondbacks	2.4	2
2026-07-26	Minnesota Twins	4.2	0
2026-07-31	Detroit Tigers	3.9	2
2026-08-19	Kansas City Royals	1.5	1
2026-08-24	Minnesota Twins	1.1	3
2026-08-30	Baltimore Orioles	1	6
2026-09-05	Seattle Mariners	4.4	6

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 12.2%

!Whiff rate is 20.6%

!CSW rate is 24.4%

!Opponent K% is 21.2%

!Average pitch count is 81

!WHIP is 1.45

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-30	Baltimore Orioles	Home	4.2	6	90	1.5	14	42.9%
2026-08-24	Minnesota Twins	Home	4.2	3	89	1.5	11	27.3%
2026-08-19	Kansas City Royals	Away	5.2	1	85	1.48	9	11.1%
2026-07-31	Detroit Tigers	Home	4	2	86	1.48	12	16.7%
2026-07-26	Minnesota Twins	Away	1.1	0	36	1.45	3	0%
2026-07-20	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	5	2	78	1.42	9	22.2%
2026-07-08	Detroit Tigers	Away	4.1	4	92	1.42	10	40%
2026-06-30	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	5.1	2	92	1.38	7	28.6%
2026-06-25	San Francisco Giants	Away	5.1	6	87	1.33	14	42.9%
2026-06-19	Los Angeles Angels	Home	3.2	4	86	1.35	11	36.4%