MLB pitcher strikeout

Blake Snell

vs Washington Nationals2026-09-04DraftKingsLHP

Projection

6.5

Ensemble: 6.7

Market line

8.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+2.0

Under 8.5

40% (2/5)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Under 8.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

100/100

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Pitcher K%

34.1%

Whiff%

36.6%

CSW%

33%

WHIP

1.45

Avg IP

5.2

Avg pitches

88.8

Last 5 avg Ks

7.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

34.5%

Team chase

28.4%

Recent chase

30.7%

Recent contact

75.1%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

22.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

26%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

8.5

DraftKings

Model projection

6.5

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

2 of 5 overs

Average Ks

7.2

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (2/5)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

8.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 8.5Model 6.5

Aug 29

@ DET

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 23

vs PIT

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 17

@ COL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 11

vs KC

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

May 9

vs ATL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

3 of 5 overs

Average Outs

15.6

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (3/5)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 15.6

Aug 29

@ DET

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 23

vs PIT

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 17

@ COL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 11

vs KC

OVER

Outs

+0.5

May 9

vs ATL

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Washington Nationals

No prior starts found against Washington Nationals.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	8.5	-105	-121	-2.0	+2.0	Best Under
FanDuel	7.5	-174	+136	-1.0	+1.0	—
Pinnacle	7.5	-183	+137	-1.0	+1.0	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

91.5%

5+ Ks

80.6%

6+ Ks

65.6%

7+ Ks

47.7%

8+ Ks

30.3%

9+ Ks

16.9%Line

10+ Ks

7.6%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	51%	18.7%	25.5%	96
Curveball	21%	50%	25.5%	80
Changeup	17.7%	35.7%	7.7%	84.3
Slider	10.4%	57.1%	28.6%	88.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

52.5%

2-Strike Foul%

17.1%

2-Strike Contact%

61.8%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	33	54.5%	42.4%
1-2	34	61.8%	38.2%
2-2	22	54.5%	45.5%
3-2 (full)	18	33.3%	66.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Changeup	Slider
James WoodL	32.4%	26.5%	21.5% vs L: 22.6%	30.3% vs L: 34.8%	17.9% vs L: 22.7%	26.6% vs L: 31.4%
Andrés ChaparroR	22.8%	17%	10% vs L: 16.7%	11.8% vs L: 25%	21.7% vs L: 22.7%	25.8% vs L: 19%
Dylan CrewsR	21.4%	25.6%	17.7% vs L: 25%	26.7% vs L: 14.3%	34.1% vs L: 12.5%	27.9% vs L: 25%
CJ AbramsL	31.4%	20.7%	14.8% vs L: 22.5%	26.6% vs L: 31.2%	22.7% vs L: 36.8%	24.4% vs L: 28.6%
Brady HouseR	25.3%	28.3%	31.3% vs L: 27.3%	31.6% vs L: 50%	20% vs L: 16.7%	25% vs L: 16.7%
Yohandy MoralesR	—	—	—	—	—	—
Harry FordR	30%	20.8%	16.3% vs L: 21.7%	22.2% vs L: 40%	8.3% vs L: 0%	15.8% vs L: 33.3%
Jacob YoungR	15.7%	17.3%	20.9% vs L: 22.5%	11.5% vs L: 0%	9.1% vs L: 9.7%	14.7% vs L: 17.6%
Nasim NuñezS	18.7%	21.3%	12.7% vs L: 10%	19.6% vs L: 35.7%	20.2% vs L: 24.1%	18.1% vs L: 12.5%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Changeup	Slider
James WoodL	16.2% vs L: 18%	44.8% vs L: 57.9%	30.2% vs L: 34.6%	45.7% vs L: 48.5%
Andrés ChaparroR	16.7% vs L: 24.2%	15.8% vs L: 10%	35.6% vs L: 34.1%	47.2% vs L: 44.4%
Dylan CrewsR	22.4% vs L: 29.5%	42.9% vs L: 41.7%	45% vs L: 32.1%	53.5% vs L: 50%
CJ AbramsL	22.3% vs L: 20.8%	40.7% vs L: 48%	30.8% vs L: 44%	35.5% vs L: 41.5%
Brady HouseR	27.5% vs L: 29.1%	36.8% vs L: 42.9%	44.6% vs L: 48.6%	38.9% vs L: 20%
Yohandy MoralesR	—	—	—	—
Harry FordR	25.4% vs L: 29.4%	33.3% vs L: 42.9%	22.2% vs L: 22.2%	34.8% vs L: 50%
Jacob YoungR	14% vs L: 16.7%	28% vs L: 14.3%	27.4% vs L: 25.9%	27.1% vs L: 26.3%
Nasim NuñezS	16.8% vs L: 14.1%	25% vs L: 45.5%	25.2% vs L: 29.5%	26.2% vs L: 19.2%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
CJ Abrams	7	1	14.3%	.143
Jacob Young	4	1	25%	.000
James Wood	2	2	100%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
James Wood	20.2%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Andrés Chaparro	30.2%	29.2%	21.9%	76.1%
Dylan Crews	31.1%	32.4%	27.3%	70.4%
CJ Abrams	38.6%	32.9%	35%	69.3%
Brady House	33.6%	25.9%	18.8%	83.6%
Yohandy Morales	N/A	25%	N/A	N/A
Harry Ford	18.7%	30%	16.7%	76.9%
Jacob Young	29%	28.1%	15.2%	78.8%
Nasim Nuñez	25.6%	42.3%	24.2%	70.3%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-11	Kansas City Royals	3.5	10
2026-08-17	Colorado Rockies	8.9	5
2026-08-23	Pittsburgh Pirates	8.5	6
2026-08-29	Detroit Tigers	7.8	10
2026-09-04	Washington Nationals	6.48	7

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 34.1%

✓Whiff rate is 36.6%

✓CSW rate is 33%

✓Opponent K% is 23.6%

!Average pitch count is 88.8

!WHIP is 1.45

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-29	Detroit Tigers	Away	5	10	99	1.08	13	76.9%
2026-08-23	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	6	6	94	1.05	15	40%
2026-08-17	Colorado Rockies	Away	6	5	90	1.13	16	31.2%
2026-08-11	Kansas City Royals	Home	6	10	84	1.33	15	66.7%
2026-05-09	Atlanta Braves	Home	3	5	77	2.67	—	—