MLB pitcher strikeout

Clay Holmes

@ Miami Marlins2026-09-06FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.3

Ensemble: 4.3

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model edge

No qualifying edge

60% (6/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

B+

78/100

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Pitcher K%

16.2%

Whiff%

21.2%

CSW%

27.2%

WHIP

1.07

Avg IP

5.7

Avg pitches

90.9

Last 5 avg Ks

3.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

8.7%

Platoon K%

15.9%

Team chase

29.9%

Recent chase

29.9%

Recent contact

75.4%

Recent K% (7d)

21.3%

Opp K% vs RHP

18.9%

Opp K% vs LHP

23.8%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.7

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 4.5Model 4.3

Aug 31

vs MIL

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 25

@ ARI

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 19

vs CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 14

vs STL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 8

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

FanDuel

Model projection

15.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.6

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 17.5Model 15.3

Aug 31

vs MIL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 25

@ ARI

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 19

vs CWS

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 14

vs STL

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 8

@ KC

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Miami Marlins

No prior starts found against Miami Marlins.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-0.2	+0.2	—
Pinnacle	4.5	-130	+102	-0.2	+0.2	—
DraftKings	4.5	-145	+113	-0.2	+0.2	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

70.7%

5+ Ks

48.7%Line

6+ Ks

28.2%

7+ Ks

14.2%

8+ Ks

6.3%

9+ Ks

2.3%

10+ Ks

0.7%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	48.6%	7.3%	16%	92.3
Sweeper	16.7%	12%	4%	80.4
Cutter	16.5%	50%	36.4%	84.6
Changeup	12.1%	31.8%	21.1%	87
Curveball	4%	20%	16.7%	80

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

36.7%

2-Strike Foul%

26%

2-Strike Contact%

76.8%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	18	44.4%	55.6%
1-2	23	34.8%	65.2%
2-2	19	15.8%	84.2%
3-2 (full)	17	17.6%	82.4%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Sweeper	Cutter	Changeup	Curveball
Heriberto HernándezR	21.9%	30.1%	23.2% vs R: 19.5%	23.1% vs R: 22.9%	31.8% vs R: 26.7%	22.9% vs R: 33.3%	25.7% vs R: 22.2%
Otto LopezR	13.2%	12.9%	13% vs R: 15.4%	9.5% vs R: 10%	10% vs R: 4.5%	19.6% vs R: 19.3%	25% vs R: 25%
Agustín RamírezR	23.3%	23.6%	20% vs R: 28%	8.7% vs R: 6.7%	26.7% vs R: 28.6%	8.8% vs R: 16.7%	18.8% vs R: 10%
Javier SanojaR	12%	6.2%	2.3% vs R: 3.4%	16.3% vs R: 10%	6.9% vs R: 0%	11.5% vs R: 9.1%	15.4% vs R: 15.4%
Xavier EdwardsS	15.5%	12.7%	14.5% vs R: 10.6%	21.3% vs R: 25%	9.4% vs R: 7.7%	12.7% vs R: 13.3%	13.2% vs R: 12.2%
Jakob MarseeL	27.3%	19.3%	23.6% vs R: 23.8%	24.5% vs R: 20%	17.1% vs R: 17.9%	15.5% vs R: 15.9%	17.1% vs R: 14.3%
Joe MackL	25.8%	25.9%	31.6% vs R: 44.4%	32.4% vs R: 38.9%	26.3% vs R: 14.3%	35.7% vs R: 36%	10% vs R: 13%
Esteury RuizR	33%	30.2%	21.9% vs R: 21.7%	18.2% vs R: 18.5%	37.5% vs R: 33.3%	18.4% vs R: 18.2%	5.6%
Brian NavarretoR	38.7%	26.3%	0% vs R: 0%	12.5% vs R: 20%	10% vs R: 33.3%	40%	30%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Sweeper	Cutter	Changeup	Curveball
Heriberto HernándezR	19.8% vs R: 17.8%	32.1% vs R: 36.8%	32.8% vs R: 32.4%	45.1% vs R: 48.7%	31.4% vs R: 26.7%
Otto LopezR	3% vs R: 3.1%	18.9% vs R: 19.5%	12.3% vs R: 14%	26.1% vs R: 27.3%	29.3% vs R: 27.5%
Agustín RamírezR	17% vs R: 19.4%	33.3% vs R: 34.6%	42.3% vs R: 42.9%	44.4% vs R: 50%	38.9% vs R: 16.7%
Javier SanojaR	5.4% vs R: 4.8%	20% vs R: 15.5%	3.3% vs R: 0%	14.1% vs R: 4%	10.7% vs R: 11.8%
Xavier EdwardsS	4.4% vs R: 3.7%	16.4% vs R: 19%	5.7% vs R: 5.7%	31.4% vs R: 30.6%	25% vs R: 23.4%
Jakob MarseeL	10.1% vs R: 7.6%	37.5% vs R: 26.3%	10% vs R: 8.5%	28.7% vs R: 28%	22.6% vs R: 16%
Joe MackL	11.8% vs R: 16.2%	42.1% vs R: 39.1%	20.4% vs R: 15.8%	47.1% vs R: 47%	17.9% vs R: 19.4%
Esteury RuizR	17.6% vs R: 16%	33.3% vs R: 32.4%	35.3% vs R: 38.1%	34% vs R: 40%	16.7%
Brian NavarretoR	14.3% vs R: 14.3%	30% vs R: 16.7%	20% vs R: 16.7%	92.3%	40%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Xavier Edwards	12	1	8.3%	.273
Otto Lopez	11	1	9.1%	.300
Jakob Marsee	6	0	0%	.167
Heriberto Hernández	4	1	25%	.000
Javier Sanoja	4	3	75%	.250
Agustín Ramírez	3	1	33.3%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Heriberto Hernández	24.2%	22.1%	24.1%	71.1%
Otto Lopez	28.2%	29.5%	17%	81.9%
Agustín Ramírez	33.3%	36.2%	28.1%	73.5%
Javier Sanoja	36.7%	35.6%	5.9%	89.2%
Xavier Edwards	25.3%	26.3%	16%	76.5%
Jakob Marsee	20.7%	9.1%	20.9%	81.1%
Joe Mack	29.3%	35.8%	35.7%	65.2%
Esteury Ruiz	33.8%	33.3%	34.8%	68%
Brian Navarreto	37.7%	41.2%	40%	71.7%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-08	Kansas City Royals	4	1
2026-08-14	St. Louis Cardinals	3.8	3
2026-08-19	Chicago White Sox	3.8	1
2026-08-25	Arizona Diamondbacks	3.1	5
2026-08-31	Milwaukee Brewers	3.4	8
2026-09-06	Miami Marlins	4.29	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 16.2%

!Whiff rate is 21.2%

!CSW rate is 27.2%

!Opponent K% is 18.9%

✓Average pitch count is 90.9

✓WHIP is 1.07

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	6	8	101	1.07	17	47.1%
2026-08-25	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	7	5	93	1.06	11	45.5%
2026-08-19	Chicago White Sox	Home	5.1	1	86	1.11	6	16.7%
2026-08-14	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	6.2	3	80	1.07	9	33.3%
2026-08-08	Kansas City Royals	Away	4	1	70	1.16	6	16.7%
2026-05-15	New York Yankees	Home	4.1	8	95	1.1	—	—
2026-05-09	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	5.2	6	103	1.01	—	—
2026-05-03	Los Angeles Angels	Away	6.2	6	99	0.98	—	—
2026-04-28	Washington Nationals	Home	6	6	94	0.97	—	—
2026-04-22	Minnesota Twins	Home	7	3	88	1.03	—	—