MLB pitcher strikeout

Chris Bassitt

vs Boston Red Sox2026-09-05FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.2

Ensemble: 4.0

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.3

Under 4.5

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Under 4.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

17.8%

Whiff%

20.1%

CSW%

27.9%

WHIP

1.62

Avg IP

5.2

Avg pitches

82.1

Last 5 avg Ks

4.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

25.5%

Platoon K%

17.9%

Team chase

29.2%

Recent chase

31.5%

Recent contact

78.6%

Recent K% (7d)

23.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

18.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

22%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 4.2

Sep 5

vs BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 30

@ ATH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 25

@ STL

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 19

vs NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 14

@ TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.5

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.0

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 5O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15.5

Sep 5

vs BOS

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 30

@ ATH

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 25

@ STL

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 19

vs NYY

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 14

@ TB

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Boston Red Sox

No prior starts found against Boston Red Sox.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-0.3	+0.3	Best Under
Pinnacle	4.5	-102	-130	-0.3	+0.3	—
DraftKings	4.5	+103	-132	-0.3	+0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

63.9%

5+ Ks

42.2%Line

6+ Ks

23.7%

7+ Ks

11.3%

8+ Ks

5.1%

9+ Ks

1.8%

10+ Ks

0.5%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	38.3%	10.1%	24.1%	92.6
Curveball	19.9%	25.6%	25.7%	71.5
Cutter	13.4%	24%	5.6%	90.3
4-Seam Fastball	12.1%	13%	0%	92.3
Changeup	6.8%	11.1%	0%	85.8
Sweeper	5.8%	28.6%	12.5%	74
Slider	3.7%	25%	0%	81.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

35.3%

2-Strike Foul%

22.6%

2-Strike Contact%

81.8%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	20	25%	75%
1-2	28	32.1%	67.9%
2-2	26	50%	50%
3-2 (full)	15	53.3%	46.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Curveball	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sweeper	Slider
Roman AnthonyL	21.4%	25.4%	35% vs R: 50%	42.1% vs R: 31.2%	28.6% vs R: 33.3%	8.7% vs R: 9.3%	27.8% vs R: 31.2%	18.8% vs R: 14.3%	23.8% vs R: 25%
Mickey GasperS	31.8%	11.9%	10% vs R: 10%	38.5% vs R: 33.3%	36.4% vs R: 30%	7.9% vs R: 8.8%	35% vs R: 21.4%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	17.6% vs R: 25%
Wilyer AbreuL	17%	21.8%	7% vs R: 11.9%	13.2% vs R: 17.1%	17.3% vs R: 11.8%	17.9% vs R: 18.2%	26.1% vs R: 29.1%	19.6% vs R: 17.6%	18% vs R: 20%
Trevor StoryR	34%	31.5%	20.8% vs R: 27.8%	34.8% vs R: 42.9%	25% vs R: 25%	28.9% vs R: 28.8%	23.1% vs R: 27.3%	37.5% vs R: 40%	23.5% vs R: 20.8%
Nick SogardS	19%	17.4%	22.2% vs R: 23.1%	14.3% vs R: 16.7%	27.3% vs R: 27.3%	15.4% vs R: 12.8%	12.5% vs R: 14.7%	13.3% vs R: 13.3%	23.1% vs R: 18.8%
Isiah Kiner-FalefaR	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Jarren DuranL	23.7%	28.6%	12.2% vs R: 10.7%	18% vs R: 20%	26.9% vs R: 33.3%	25.4% vs R: 23.6%	22% vs R: 22.4%	42.3% vs R: 30%	35.8% vs R: 35%
Eli WhiteR	25.7%	16.9%	11.1% vs R: 18.2%	14.3%	14.3% vs R: 0%	26.5% vs R: 30%	18.2% vs R: 50%	17.4% vs R: 0%	17.4% vs R: 18.2%
Connor WongR	13.8%	27.8%	27.6% vs R: 26.9%	10% vs R: 14.3%	25% vs R: 30%	20% vs R: 22%	34.6% vs R: 40%	27.8% vs R: 29.4%	13.7% vs R: 13.6%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Curveball	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sweeper	Slider
Roman AnthonyL	16.3% vs R: 23.5%	64.7% vs R: 61.5%	7.7% vs R: 8.3%	9.7% vs R: 11.3%	38.7% vs R: 40%	31.2% vs R: 75%	29% vs R: 31.8%
Mickey GasperS	9.8% vs R: 11.1%	25% vs R: 0%	15.4% vs R: 13%	6.8% vs R: 7.2%	29.4% vs R: 23.1%	0% vs R: 0%	27.3% vs R: 34.8%
Wilyer AbreuL	13.6% vs R: 14.9%	14.8% vs R: 15.9%	16.3% vs R: 9.3%	22% vs R: 20.6%	32.7% vs R: 33.6%	24.1% vs R: 29.4%	28.7% vs R: 30.3%
Trevor StoryR	15.2% vs R: 15.4%	39.3% vs R: 40%	18.5% vs R: 12.5%	26.3% vs R: 27.1%	47.5% vs R: 58.3%	30% vs R: 24.2%	26.4% vs R: 28.2%
Nick SogardS	13.9% vs R: 13.3%	21.4% vs R: 20%	23.1% vs R: 25%	9.9% vs R: 8.2%	24.1% vs R: 26.2%	7.7% vs R: 8.3%	31.6% vs R: 30.8%
Isiah Kiner-FalefaR	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Jarren DuranL	13% vs R: 14.3%	35.5% vs R: 37.9%	21.2% vs R: 22.7%	27.5% vs R: 25.6%	35.2% vs R: 35.5%	40% vs R: 33.3%	40.5% vs R: 42%
Eli WhiteR	13.5% vs R: 15.2%	58.3%	18.5% vs R: 11.1%	21.1% vs R: 19.4%	37.5% vs R: 28.6%	22.2% vs R: 0%	28.6% vs R: 22.7%
Connor WongR	7.6% vs R: 6.6%	5% vs R: 6.7%	36.1% vs R: 42.3%	10.9% vs R: 14.7%	51.5% vs R: 46.2%	46.3% vs R: 47.5%	32.3% vs R: 32.7%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jarren Duran	24	7	29.2%	.238
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	19	5	26.3%	.278
Wilyer Abreu	18	3	16.7%	.500
Eli White	13	3	23.1%	.455
Trevor Story	10	3	30%	.429
Connor Wong	10	3	30%	.100
Mickey Gasper	4	0	0%	.333
Nick Sogard	4	0	0%	.500
Roman Anthony	2	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Roman Anthony	N/A	20.8%	20.7%	80.9%
Mickey Gasper	18.3%	20.7%	15%	79.3%
Wilyer Abreu	30.5%	33.6%	24.6%	75.9%
Trevor Story	N/A	43.8%	30%	78.4%
Nick Sogard	23%	29%	20%	80.5%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	31.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jarren Duran	35.3%	32.9%	23.8%	72.1%
Eli White	36.2%	40.5%	18.2%	78%
Connor Wong	29.1%	30.6%	21.4%	83.3%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-14	Tampa Bay Rays	1.7	3
2026-08-19	New York Yankees	2.9	6
2026-08-25	St. Louis Cardinals	2	5
2026-08-30	Athletics	3.1	4
2026-09-05	Boston Red Sox	4.21	6

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 17.8%

!Whiff rate is 20.1%

!CSW rate is 27.9%

!Opponent K% is 22.7%

!Average pitch count is 82.1

!WHIP is 1.62

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Boston Red Sox	Home	5.2	6	91	1.58	—	—
2026-08-30	Athletics	Away	5.2	4	99	1.58	12	33.3%
2026-08-25	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	6.2	5	99	1.55	15	33.3%
2026-08-19	New York Yankees	Home	5.2	6	95	1.62	13	46.2%
2026-08-14	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	5.1	3	88	1.62	11	27.3%
2026-06-03	Boston Red Sox	Away	3	1	56	1.63	—	—
2026-05-28	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	6	2	80	1.58	—	—
2026-05-22	Detroit Tigers	Home	4.1	4	58	1.67	—	—
2026-05-16	Washington Nationals	Away	5	4	82	1.7	—	—
2026-05-10	Athletics	Home	6	6	94	1.74	—	—