MLB pitcher strikeout

Jacob deGrom

vs Tampa Bay Rays2026-09-05DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.8

Ensemble: 5.1

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.7

Under 5.5

60% (6/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

Under 5.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

100/100

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Pitcher K%

34.4%

Whiff%

35.2%

CSW%

30.2%

WHIP

1.12

Avg IP

4.6

Avg pitches

85.6

Last 5 avg Ks

6.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

30%

Team chase

31%

Recent chase

29.6%

Recent contact

83.9%

Recent K% (7d)

15.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

16.6%

Opp K% vs LHP

18.2%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.9

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 4.8

Sep 5

vs TB

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 31

vs ATH

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 25

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Aug 20

vs WSH

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Aug 13

@ LAA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

14.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-2.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

30% (3/10)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 16.5Model 14.8

Sep 5

vs TB

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 31

vs ATH

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 25

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Aug 20

vs WSH

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 13

@ LAA

UNDER

Outs

-10.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Tampa Bay Rays

No prior starts found against Tampa Bay Rays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	5.5	+107	-136	-0.7	+0.7	Best Under
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-136	-0.7	+0.7	—
Pinnacle	5.5	+106	-141	-0.7	+0.7	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

72.1%

5+ Ks

51.2%

6+ Ks

31.5%Line

7+ Ks

16.6%

8+ Ks

7.1%

9+ Ks

2.7%

10+ Ks

0.7%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	41.4%	23.6%	19.7%	97.5
Slider	37.8%	34.8%	25.1%	91.4
Changeup	11.4%	46.8%	15.9%	89.6
Curveball	5.8%	32.1%	31.2%	80.2
Sinker	3.6%	7.1%	25%	96.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

57.1%

2-Strike Foul%

22.4%

2-Strike Contact%

65%

Expected Ks

29.3

K Luck

+2.7

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	22	68.2%	31.8%
1-2	35	57.1%	42.9%
2-2	34	52.9%	47.1%
3-2 (full)	20	40%	60%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Curveball	Sinker
Yandy DíazR	12.4%	14.9%	16.1% vs R: 19.4%	8.8% vs R: 8.8%	11.3% vs R: 9.5%	14% vs R: 18.5%	12.9% vs R: 9.6%
Jonathan ArandaL	28.3%	21.6%	18% vs R: 16.6%	19.1% vs R: 20.3%	11.1% vs R: 9.3%	27.9% vs R: 28.6%	25% vs R: 22.4%
Junior CamineroR	14%	20%	16.9% vs R: 16.5%	14.8% vs R: 17%	11.3% vs R: 13%	27.1% vs R: 31%	14.8% vs R: 16.7%
Liam HicksL	15.1%	8.2%	5.4% vs R: 3.2%	23.4% vs R: 17.6%	12.1% vs R: 10.9%	16% vs R: 18.6%	10.3% vs R: 5.9%
Chandler SimpsonL	10.9%	6.8%	5.5% vs R: 5.7%	14.3% vs R: 12.5%	13.5% vs R: 13%	14.3% vs R: 14.3%	12.8% vs R: 4%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	16.7%	23.1%	16.9% vs R: 15.2%	21.4% vs R: 20%	17.6% vs R: 17.6%	17.6% vs R: 17.6%	35.7% vs R: 36.4%
Cedric MullinsL	17.9%	19.3%	16.8% vs R: 16.3%	18.6% vs R: 23.1%	14.3% vs R: 13.6%	27.3% vs R: 26.7%	17.6% vs R: 21.6%
Richie PalaciosL	22%	16.7%	19.3% vs R: 17%	14.3% vs R: 11.9%	10.3% vs R: 11.1%	11.8% vs R: 12.1%	18.8% vs R: 17.1%
Taylor WallsS	21.1%	25.7%	23.9% vs R: 24%	20.6% vs R: 20.8%	25.4% vs R: 30%	20% vs R: 20%	6.2% vs R: 2.9%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Curveball	Sinker
Yandy DíazR	16% vs R: 17.5%	14% vs R: 13.6%	15.9% vs R: 12.9%	13.7% vs R: 18.2%	5.6% vs R: 5.6%
Jonathan ArandaL	21.6% vs R: 21.3%	17.7% vs R: 14.9%	13.7% vs R: 12.5%	26% vs R: 26.7%	8.8% vs R: 3.1%
Junior CamineroR	18.7% vs R: 18.6%	24% vs R: 26%	26.8% vs R: 30%	31.7% vs R: 40%	10.4% vs R: 10.8%
Liam HicksL	3.8% vs R: 3%	20.7% vs R: 20.7%	13.9% vs R: 13.1%	12.8% vs R: 14.6%	2.4% vs R: 1.4%
Chandler SimpsonL	3.5% vs R: 3.5%	20.8% vs R: 18.8%	20% vs R: 19.7%	27.6% vs R: 26.1%	3.2% vs R: 1.5%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	24.7% vs R: 26.1%	25.6% vs R: 25.9%	18.8% vs R: 17.2%	28.6% vs R: 30%	5.1% vs R: 4.3%
Cedric MullinsL	19.9% vs R: 17.4%	24.1% vs R: 26%	18.5% vs R: 19.3%	37.2% vs R: 36.8%	13% vs R: 15%
Richie PalaciosL	13% vs R: 11%	28% vs R: 23.5%	35% vs R: 33.8%	21.7% vs R: 22.7%	5.6% vs R: 8.5%
Taylor WallsS	18.4% vs R: 19.8%	29.1% vs R: 32.6%	31% vs R: 29.8%	27.3% vs R: 39.1%	11.3% vs R: 10.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Cedric Mullins	9	1	11.1%	.222
Yandy Díaz	3	0	0%	.000
Jonathan Aranda	3	0	0%	.667

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Yandy Díaz	29.4%	23.8%	13%	87.6%
Jonathan Aranda	29.4%	30.3%	23.4%	79.2%
Junior Caminero	31.9%	32.8%	17.3%	77.8%
Liam Hicks	28.2%	32.8%	12.5%	89.8%
Chandler Simpson	31.1%	23.6%	4%	88.7%
Victor Mesa Jr.	34.5%	N/A	N/A	78.3%
Cedric Mullins	33.5%	29.6%	8.3%	89.8%
Richie Palacios	35.8%	42.9%	9.7%	82.3%
Taylor Walls	25.3%	20.8%	23.1%	81.5%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	Los Angeles Angels	9.6	7
2026-07-20	Chicago White Sox	9.4	6
2026-07-26	Seattle Mariners	7.2	4
2026-08-01	Houston Astros	6.4	3
2026-08-08	Baltimore Orioles	6.7	9
2026-08-13	Los Angeles Angels	8.6	3
2026-08-20	Washington Nationals	6.5	10
2026-08-25	Chicago White Sox	7.3	2
2026-08-31	Athletics	6.2	8
2026-09-05	Tampa Bay Rays	4.76	7

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 34.4%

✓Whiff rate is 35.2%

✓CSW rate is 30.2%

!Opponent K% is 16.9%

!Average pitch count is 85.6

✓WHIP is 1.12

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	6	7	90	1.12	—	—
2026-08-31	Athletics	Home	7	8	85	1.13	12	66.7%
2026-08-25	Chicago White Sox	Away	3.2	2	87	1.18	10	20%
2026-08-20	Washington Nationals	Home	6	10	94	1.13	14	71.4%
2026-08-13	Los Angeles Angels	Away	2	3	53	1.17	8	37.5%
2026-08-08	Baltimore Orioles	Home	5	9	88	1.13	12	75%
2026-08-01	Houston Astros	Away	3.1	3	91	1.14	10	30%
2026-07-26	Seattle Mariners	Home	5	4	90	1.07	11	36.4%
2026-07-20	Chicago White Sox	Home	4.2	6	97	1.05	12	50%
2026-07-07	Los Angeles Angels	Home	5	7	80	1.01	10	70%