MLB pitcher strikeout

Trevor Williams

vs Tampa Bay Rays2026-09-04RHP

Projection

2.8

Ensemble: 2.9

Market line

No line available

Model edge

No qualifying edge

40% (4/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

B+

78/100

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Pitcher K%

25.5%

Whiff%

25.2%

CSW%

26.2%

WHIP

1.15

Avg IP

2.1

Avg pitches

42.4

Last 5 avg Ks

2.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

23.5%

Team chase

30.9%

Recent chase

29.8%

Recent contact

85.3%

Recent K% (7d)

14.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

16.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

18.1%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

Selected line

Model projection

2.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

2.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 2.8

Sep 4

vs TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 1

vs ATH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 23

@ MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 18

@ TEX

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 12

vs CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

12.5

Selected line

Model projection

12.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

0 of 10 overs

Average Outs

5.8

Selected starts

Average margin

-6.7

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

0% (0/10)· 10U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

12.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 12.5Model 12.3

Sep 4

vs TB

UNDER

Outs

-9.5

Sep 1

vs ATH

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Aug 23

@ MIA

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Aug 18

@ TEX

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 12

vs CHC

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Tampa Bay Rays

No prior starts found against Tampa Bay Rays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

No sportsbook lines found for this pitcher.

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

31.3%

5+ Ks

13.4%

6+ Ks

4.7%

7+ Ks

1.5%

8+ Ks

0.4%

9+ Ks

0.1%

10+ Ks

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	39%	20.5%	24.6%	89.9
Sweeper	26%	36%	22.2%	78.3
Sinker	18.4%	3.8%	7.1%	88.4
Changeup	9.9%	21.4%	7.7%	81.7
Slider	6.8%	0%	0%	82.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

43.8%

2-Strike Foul%

21.1%

2-Strike Contact%

76.2%

Expected Ks

15.3

K Luck

-1.3

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	13	46.2%	53.8%
1-2	17	47.1%	52.9%
2-2	20	50%	50%
3-2 (full)	10	40%	60%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Sinker	Changeup	Slider
Yandy DíazR	12.4%	15.1%	16.1% vs R: 19.4%	4% vs R: 2.4%	12.9% vs R: 9.6%	11.3% vs R: 9.5%	8.8% vs R: 8.8%
Jonathan ArandaL	28.3%	21.4%	18.1% vs R: 16.7%	17% vs R: 15%	25% vs R: 22.4%	11.1% vs R: 9.3%	18.4% vs R: 19.4%
Junior CamineroR	14%	19.8%	17.1% vs R: 16.9%	25.3% vs R: 26.4%	13.8% vs R: 15.5%	11.5% vs R: 13.6%	15.4% vs R: 17.9%
Liam HicksL	15.2%	8.2%	5.4% vs R: 3.2%	8.1% vs R: 0%	10.3% vs R: 5.9%	12.1% vs R: 10.9%	23.4% vs R: 17.6%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	16.7%	23.1%	16.9% vs R: 15.2%	14.3% vs R: 20%	35.7% vs R: 36.4%	17.6% vs R: 17.6%	21.4% vs R: 20%
Chandler SimpsonL	10.4%	6.9%	5.6% vs R: 5.8%	17.6% vs R: 14.3%	10.9% vs R: 4%	13.5% vs R: 13%	14.8% vs R: 13.6%
Cedric MullinsL	18.3%	19.4%	16.8% vs R: 16.4%	10% vs R: 9.1%	17.6% vs R: 21.6%	14.3% vs R: 13.6%	18.6% vs R: 23.1%
Richie PalaciosL	22.9%	16.8%	19.3% vs R: 17%	3.7% vs R: 5.3%	18.8% vs R: 17.1%	10.3% vs R: 11.1%	14.6% vs R: 12.2%
Taylor WallsS	21.4%	25.5%	23.6% vs R: 23.5%	19.2% vs R: 27.8%	6.2% vs R: 2.9%	25.4% vs R: 30%	20.6% vs R: 20.8%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Sinker	Changeup	Slider
Yandy DíazR	16% vs R: 17.5%	7.1% vs R: 6.8%	5.7% vs R: 5.7%	15.9% vs R: 12.9%	13.4% vs R: 13%
Jonathan ArandaL	21.5% vs R: 21.1%	20.4% vs R: 20%	8.8% vs R: 3.1%	13.7% vs R: 12.5%	16.8% vs R: 13.6%
Junior CamineroR	18.5% vs R: 18.3%	34.3% vs R: 35.8%	10.2% vs R: 10.5%	26.8% vs R: 30%	24.6% vs R: 26.7%
Liam HicksL	3.9% vs R: 3%	12.5% vs R: 5.9%	2.5% vs R: 1.4%	13.9% vs R: 13.1%	20.9% vs R: 21.1%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	24.7% vs R: 26.1%	13.6% vs R: 13.3%	5.1% vs R: 4.3%	18.8% vs R: 17.2%	25.6% vs R: 25.9%
Chandler SimpsonL	3.6% vs R: 3.5%	18.6% vs R: 18.2%	3.2% vs R: 1.5%	20% vs R: 19.7%	19.7% vs R: 16.1%
Cedric MullinsL	20% vs R: 17.5%	12.7% vs R: 12.1%	13% vs R: 15%	18.5% vs R: 19.3%	22.9% vs R: 25.4%
Richie PalaciosL	13% vs R: 11%	16.7% vs R: 20%	5.7% vs R: 8.6%	35% vs R: 33.8%	27.8% vs R: 23.1%
Taylor WallsS	18.5% vs R: 20%	21.1% vs R: 28.6%	11.5% vs R: 10.5%	31.4% vs R: 29.8%	27.8% vs R: 31%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Liam Hicks	5	0	0%	.750
Cedric Mullins	5	2	40%	.200
Yandy Díaz	3	0	0%	.333

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Yandy Díaz	29.5%	24.5%	13%	89%
Jonathan Aranda	28.9%	27.8%	21.7%	81.2%
Junior Caminero	32.1%	31.7%	13.7%	76.9%
Liam Hicks	28.4%	33.3%	13.3%	89.5%
Victor Mesa Jr.	33.4%	N/A	N/A	86.7%
Chandler Simpson	30.9%	23.5%	2%	89.9%
Cedric Mullins	33.5%	30.1%	8.3%	90.3%
Richie Palacios	35.5%	48.2%	12.9%	83.6%
Taylor Walls	25.5%	18.9%	20%	80.4%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-09-04	Tampa Bay Rays	2.84	2

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 25.5%

!Whiff rate is 25.2%

!CSW rate is 26.2%

!Opponent K% is 16.9%

!Average pitch count is 42.4

✓WHIP is 1.15

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	1	2	19	1.34	—	—
2026-09-01	Athletics	Home	1.1	1	43	1.42	5	20%
2026-08-23	Miami Marlins	Away	2.1	3	47	1.24	5	60%
2026-08-18	Texas Rangers	Away	3.1	5	51	1.09	8	62.5%
2026-08-12	Chicago Cubs	Home	3	3	63	1.15	10	30%
2026-08-09	Cincinnati Reds	Home	2.1	2	36	0.96	4	50%
2026-08-06	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	1	2	15	1.17	3	66.7%
2026-08-04	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	1	2	21	1.2	2	100%
2026-07-31	Atlanta Braves	Away	2.2	4	63	1	8	50%
2026-07-29	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	1.1	1	15	0	3	33.3%