MLB pitcher strikeout

Jameson Taillon

@ Kansas City Royals2026-09-04DraftKingsRHP

Projection

3.9

Ensemble: 3.8

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.4

Over 2.5

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 2.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

22%

Whiff%

28.6%

CSW%

26.9%

WHIP

1.32

Avg IP

4.2

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

3.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

20.9%

Team chase

33.2%

Recent chase

30.1%

Recent contact

79.2%

Recent K% (7d)

16%

Opp K% vs RHP

18.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.3%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.6

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 3.9

Sep 4

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 10

vs BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 5

@ HOU

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Jul 26

@ PIT

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Jul 20

vs DET

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

11.5

FanDuel

Model projection

13.7

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Outs

11.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

80% (8/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

11.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 11.5Model 13.7

Sep 4

@ KC

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Aug 10

vs BOS

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 5

@ HOU

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Jul 26

@ PIT

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Jul 20

vs DET

OVER

Outs

+1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Kansas City Royals

No prior starts found against Kansas City Royals.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	2.5	-133	+104	+1.4	-1.4	Best Over
FanDuel	2.5	-130	+102	+1.4	-1.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

59.3%

5+ Ks

36.5%

6+ Ks

19.6%

7+ Ks

8.2%

8+ Ks

2.9%

9+ Ks

10+ Ks

0.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	23.4%	18.2%	19%	92.2
Changeup	18.8%	28.6%	26.3%	84.8
Cutter	16.9%	26.1%	33.3%	87.4
Sweeper	15%	38.1%	24%	80.7
Curveball	12.2%	26.7%	0%	79.8
Sinker	9.7%	16.7%	25%	92
Slider	4.1%	11.1%	0%	82.9

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

47.4%

2-Strike Foul%

17.4%

2-Strike Contact%

68.2%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	18	55.6%	44.4%
1-2	23	60.9%	39.1%
2-2	24	50%	50%
3-2 (full)	11	9.1%	90.9%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Cutter	Sweeper	Curveball	Sinker	Slider
Carter JensenL	29.3%	27.7%	24.2% vs R: 22.3%	15.7% vs R: 18.2%	33.3% vs R: 37.5%	22.6% vs R: 25.6%	28.6% vs R: 23.5%	24.6% vs R: 14.3%	25.8% vs R: 25.5%
Bobby Witt Jr.R	13%	18.5%	16.5% vs R: 16.4%	6.1% vs R: 0%	15% vs R: 15.6%	25% vs R: 27.1%	10.3% vs R: 8%	20.3% vs R: 24%	21.8% vs R: 21.3%
Jac CaglianoneL	29.4%	24.4%	31.7% vs R: 28.3%	19.7% vs R: 20.8%	22.2% vs R: 25%	24.6% vs R: 18.2%	22% vs R: 18.4%	18.6% vs R: 27.6%	28.1% vs R: 29.3%
Salvador PerezR	19%	19.8%	17% vs R: 15.5%	19.7% vs R: 26.1%	16.3% vs R: 17.9%	17.3% vs R: 18%	13.1% vs R: 15%	3.1% vs R: 4.2%	15.7% vs R: 14.2%
Vinnie PasquantinoL	20.7%	14%	17% vs R: 15.9%	15.7% vs R: 11.7%	9.1% vs R: 10.5%	4.8% vs R: 7.7%	8% vs R: 3.2%	14% vs R: 13.3%	15.5% vs R: 13.2%
Nick LoftinR	15.3%	16.6%	13% vs R: 13.8%	13.9% vs R: 21.4%	0% vs R: 0%	27% vs R: 8.7%	34.8% vs R: 33.3%	18.9% vs R: 28%	20.3% vs R: 23.8%
Michael MasseyL	24.7%	14.7%	17.2% vs R: 18.1%	16.4% vs R: 10.9%	13% vs R: 15%	20.5% vs R: 16.7%	12.5% vs R: 11.1%	11.5% vs R: 5%	12.8% vs R: 9.1%
Isaac CollinsS	21.4%	22.7%	18.8% vs R: 16.1%	26.2% vs R: 26.3%	18.2% vs R: 12.5%	20% vs R: 30%	17.9% vs R: 16%	12.5% vs R: 14.3%	27.3% vs R: 30.6%
Kyle IsbelL	23.1%	22.1%	19.6% vs R: 17.3%	24.4% vs R: 27.3%	27.3% vs R: 27.3%	32.3% vs R: 35.3%	23.1% vs R: 27.3%	38.9% vs R: 33.3%	20.8% vs R: 21.1%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Cutter	Sweeper	Curveball	Sinker	Slider
Carter JensenL	26.6% vs R: 26.4%	25.8% vs R: 25.8%	32.4% vs R: 32.7%	30% vs R: 28.3%	22.8% vs R: 25.5%	12.6% vs R: 17.9%	30.7% vs R: 25%
Bobby Witt Jr.R	17.5% vs R: 17.1%	19.1% vs R: 7.4%	25.5% vs R: 28.6%	35.4% vs R: 36.8%	9.8% vs R: 5.9%	11.6% vs R: 11.2%	36% vs R: 37.4%
Jac CaglianoneL	25.4% vs R: 23.9%	27.9% vs R: 29.9%	17.7% vs R: 15.9%	34.4% vs R: 14.3%	33.3% vs R: 32.8%	15.5% vs R: 16%	38.6% vs R: 42.9%
Salvador PerezR	19.5% vs R: 19%	23.4% vs R: 30.2%	25% vs R: 25.8%	32.1% vs R: 33.3%	24% vs R: 25.5%	8.6% vs R: 6.1%	31.8% vs R: 31.7%
Vinnie PasquantinoL	7.4% vs R: 6%	26% vs R: 23.6%	15.5% vs R: 15.7%	26.3% vs R: 14.3%	17% vs R: 12.1%	5% vs R: 4.1%	20.5% vs R: 22.7%
Nick LoftinR	5% vs R: 3.1%	24.2% vs R: 20%	16.7% vs R: 24.2%	30.8% vs R: 20%	37.5% vs R: 41.7%	4.9% vs R: 7%	26.5% vs R: 30.5%
Michael MasseyL	14.2% vs R: 14%	20% vs R: 15.6%	13.8% vs R: 15.1%	42.3% vs R: 37.1%	19.4% vs R: 20%	5.8% vs R: 5.3%	26.9% vs R: 13.9%
Isaac CollinsS	12% vs R: 10.6%	36.3% vs R: 32.8%	16.7% vs R: 17.5%	20% vs R: 27.3%	35.3% vs R: 31.8%	5.5% vs R: 6.7%	29.5% vs R: 35.7%
Kyle IsbelL	8.3% vs R: 7.8%	21.8% vs R: 23.4%	12.5% vs R: 14.3%	14.3% vs R: 18.2%	30.3% vs R: 32.3%	7% vs R: 3.2%	29.5% vs R: 27.6%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Salvador Perez	9	2	22.2%	.167
Isaac Collins	7	3	42.9%	.000
Kyle Isbel	4	1	25%	.250
Bobby Witt Jr.	3	1	33.3%	.667
Vinnie Pasquantino	3	0	0%	.333
Michael Massey	3	1	33.3%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Carter Jensen	21.5%	14.1%	22.9%	76.6%
Bobby Witt Jr.	32.9%	34.3%	14%	79.1%
Jac Caglianone	44.4%	45.8%	27.5%	64.9%
Salvador Perez	45.1%	40.9%	22.9%	73.8%
Vinnie Pasquantino	29.7%	26.9%	9.1%	80.8%
Nick Loftin	26.7%	28.8%	19.5%	83.1%
Michael Massey	39.2%	22.7%	N/A	90.5%
Isaac Collins	23.4%	25%	27.3%	79.4%
Kyle Isbel	36.2%	32.8%	24.3%	84.6%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-20	Detroit Tigers	3.7	6
2026-07-26	Pittsburgh Pirates	5	3
2026-08-05	Houston Astros	4.2	4
2026-08-10	Boston Red Sox	3.4	3
2026-09-04	Kansas City Royals	3.93	1

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 22%

✓Whiff rate is 28.6%

!CSW rate is 26.9%

!Opponent K% is 20.7%

!Average pitch count is 73

!WHIP is 1.32

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Kansas City Royals	Away	1	1	20	1.36	—	—
2026-08-10	Boston Red Sox	Home	4	3	61	1.37	7	42.9%
2026-08-05	Houston Astros	Away	4	4	80	1.39	10	40%
2026-07-26	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	4	3	69	1.36	7	42.9%
2026-07-20	Detroit Tigers	Home	4.1	6	75	1.32	10	60%
2026-06-07	San Francisco Giants	Home	1	2	35	1.3	4	50%
2026-06-02	Athletics	Home	6.1	6	99	1.26	—	—
2026-05-27	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	5	4	75	1.28	—	—
2026-05-22	Houston Astros	Home	4.2	5	90	1.27	—	—
2026-05-16	Chicago White Sox	Away	5	2	90	1.2	—	—