MLB pitcher strikeout

Robbie Ray

vs New York Yankees2026-09-05FanDuelLHP

Projection

5.2

Ensemble: 5.1

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.3

Under 5.5

20% (2/10)· 6U streak

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's projection, market line, and model edge.

Recommendation

Under 5.5

FanDuel

Confidence

85/100

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's recommendation and confidence grade.

Pitcher K%

17.1%

Whiff%

26.4%

CSW%

25.5%

WHIP

1.31

Avg IP

5.3

Avg pitches

88.9

Last 5 avg Ks

3.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

28.9%

Platoon K%

19.1%

Team chase

33.1%

Recent chase

32.7%

Recent contact

77.2%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

28.3%

Opp K% vs LHP

26.4%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see matchup-specific stats.

Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

5.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 6U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 5.2

Sep 5

vs NYY

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Aug 30

@ TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 24

vs PIT

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 18

@ NYM

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 12

vs MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 16

Sep 5

vs NYY

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

Aug 30

@ TB

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 24

vs PIT

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 18

@ NYM

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 12

vs MIL

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history vs. results.

Analytics

Career vs. New York Yankees

No prior starts found against New York Yankees.

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see career history vs. today's opponent.

Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	-0.3	+0.3	Best Under
DraftKings	5.5	-106	-120	-0.3	+0.3	—
Pinnacle	5.5	+109	-144	-0.3	+0.3	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see sportsbook lines and edges.

Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

80.2%

5+ Ks

62.9%

6+ Ks

42.9%Line

7+ Ks

25.9%

8+ Ks

13%

9+ Ks

5.9%

10+ Ks

2.3%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's strikeout ladder.

Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	22.4%	20.7%	20.2%	92.9
Sinker	22.4%	8%	13.8%	92.5
Changeup	21%	18.4%	15.8%	86.4
Slider	19.2%	36.6%	18.6%	86.5
Knuckle Curve	15%	33%	26.4%	79.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

33.9%

2-Strike Foul%

19.8%

2-Strike Contact%

78.3%

Expected Ks

23.4

K Luck

-4.4

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	18	33.3%	66.7%
1-2	28	35.7%	64.3%
2-2	34	29.4%	70.6%
3-2 (full)	25	28%	72%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Changeup	Slider	Knuckle Curve
Paul GoldschmidtR	20.5%	27%	18.6% vs L: 16.7%	25.5% vs L: 6.7%	17.3% vs L: 16.2%	20.3% vs L: 17.1%	0%
Cody BellingerL	15.3%	16.8%	16.8% vs L: 15.9%	14% vs L: 11.8%	12.9% vs L: 15.8%	6.2% vs L: 7.7%	14.3%
Amed RosarioR	24.6%	28.2%	19.7% vs L: 19.1%	16% vs L: 23.5%	15.4% vs L: 12.5%	35.3% vs L: 38.9%	—
Ben RiceL	27.4%	23.3%	21.2% vs L: 24.3%	26% vs L: 32.5%	20.8% vs L: 33.3%	21.7% vs L: 25%	23.1%
Heliot RamosR	24.7%	27.9%	22.1% vs L: 15.8%	21.3% vs L: 31.2%	21.1% vs L: 20%	17.2% vs L: 8.3%	17.6%
George Lombard Jr.R	43.8%	25.7%	17.6% vs L: 22.2%	31.6%	16.7% vs L: 12.5%	26.9% vs L: 28.6%	0%
Spencer JonesL	30.2%	37.8%	19.8% vs L: 13.3%	22.2% vs L: 42.9%	34.1%	29.8% vs L: 35.7%	37.5%
José CaballeroR	32.6%	20.1%	24.7% vs L: 28.6%	10.4% vs L: 16.7%	12.2% vs L: 10%	25.8% vs L: 40%	0%
Austin WellsL	28.6%	26.6%	16.8% vs L: 14.3%	32.4% vs L: 21.4%	20.7% vs L: 40%	31.7% vs L: 33.3%	11.1%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Changeup	Slider	Knuckle Curve
Paul GoldschmidtR	19% vs L: 14.9%	16.3% vs L: 8.8%	28.4% vs L: 26.7%	29.9% vs L: 21.9%	16.7%
Cody BellingerL	15.4% vs L: 8.9%	7.8% vs L: 7.4%	19.2% vs L: 21.1%	21.9% vs L: 23.6%	66.7%
Amed RosarioR	20.7% vs L: 13%	8.8% vs L: 14.7%	29.4% vs L: 30.4%	33.9% vs L: 32.3%	—
Ben RiceL	17.8% vs L: 21.5%	13.5% vs L: 19.3%	26.5% vs L: 33.3%	35.3% vs L: 37%	50%
Heliot RamosR	27.4% vs L: 27.9%	15.8% vs L: 28.1%	26.1% vs L: 26%	30.8% vs L: 40%	40%
George Lombard Jr.R	26.2% vs L: 28.6%	22.9%	27.3% vs L: 33.3%	20.6% vs L: 18.2%	25%
Spencer JonesL	29.7% vs L: 25.9%	25.5% vs L: 10%	57.7%	43.2% vs L: 37.5%	46.2%
José CaballeroR	24.8% vs L: 27.3%	11.3% vs L: 18.6%	25% vs L: 26.7%	36.5% vs L: 45.2%	40%
Austin WellsL	15.6% vs L: 20.8%	13.3% vs L: 9.1%	39.5% vs L: 30%	37.6% vs L: 38.5%	30%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal whiff matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Cody Bellinger	19	6	31.6%	.167
Amed Rosario	18	4	22.2%	.353
Paul Goldschmidt	8	3	37.5%	.125
Austin Wells	4	1	25%	.250
Ben Rice	2	2	100%	.000
José Caballero	2	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Paul Goldschmidt	33.3%	34.6%	15.8%	87.5%
Cody Bellinger	37.2%	34.5%	17.6%	82.4%
Amed Rosario	38.8%	46.4%	9.5%	80%
Ben Rice	27.4%	19.4%	22%	78.4%
Heliot Ramos	31.5%	28.6%	21.1%	58.8%
George Lombard Jr.	28.2%	28.6%	32.1%	88.2%
Spencer Jones	34.6%	35.9%	37.5%	66.7%
José Caballero	37.6%	39.5%	26.8%	74.4%
Austin Wells	29.7%	26.7%	37.8%	78%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see batter-vs-pitcher history and lineup chase rate.

Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Colorado Rockies	4	4
2026-07-19	Seattle Mariners	4.1	6
2026-07-25	Los Angeles Angels	5.1	5
2026-07-30	San Diego Padres	4.4	6
2026-08-07	Houston Astros	4.1	2
2026-08-12	Milwaukee Brewers	4	4
2026-08-18	New York Mets	4	4
2026-08-24	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.2	5
2026-08-30	Tampa Bay Rays	3.5	4
2026-09-05	New York Yankees	5.2	1

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history and model reasoning.

Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 17.1%

!Whiff rate is 26.4%

!CSW rate is 25.5%

✓Opponent K% is 24.8%

!Average pitch count is 88.9

!WHIP is 1.31

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see why this projection was made.

Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	New York Yankees	Home	2.1	1	68	1.34	—	—
2026-08-30	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	6	4	93	1.3	10	40%
2026-08-24	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	5.1	5	99	1.31	13	38.5%
2026-08-18	New York Mets	Away	6	4	91	1.31	9	44.4%
2026-08-12	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	4	4	84	1.33	15	26.7%
2026-08-07	Houston Astros	Home	5	2	92	1.33	9	22.2%
2026-07-30	San Diego Padres	Away	6	6	86	1.29	11	54.5%
2026-07-25	Los Angeles Angels	Home	6	5	80	1.31	10	50%
2026-07-19	Seattle Mariners	Away	4	6	86	1.31	11	54.5%
2026-07-10	Colorado Rockies	Home	5	4	100	1.27	11	36.4%