MLB pitcher strikeout

Yusei Kikuchi

@ Pittsburgh Pirates2026-09-05PinnacleLHP

Projection

5.4

Ensemble: 4.9

Market line

6.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+1.1

Under 6.5

20% (2/10)· 5U streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

80/100

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Pitcher K%

20%

Whiff%

25.3%

CSW%

27.1%

WHIP

1.69

Avg IP

4.8

Avg pitches

82.8

Last 5 avg Ks

4.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

18.2%

Team chase

32.1%

Recent chase

30.4%

Recent contact

73.4%

Recent K% (7d)

19.3%

Opp K% vs RHP

26.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

25.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

5.4

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (2/10)· 5U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 5.4

Sep 5

@ PIT

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 30

vs PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 23

@ TEX

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Apr 29

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-5.5

Apr 24

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.7

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (4/10)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15.3

Sep 5

@ PIT

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 30

vs PHI

OVER

Outs

+5.5

Aug 23

@ TEX

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Apr 29

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-9.5

Apr 24

@ KC

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

No prior starts found against Pittsburgh Pirates.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	-115	-111	-0.1	+0.1	—
Pinnacle	6.5	+173	-238	-1.1	+1.1	Best Under
DraftKings	5.5	+103	-131	-0.1	+0.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

84.7%

5+ Ks

68.8%

6+ Ks

49.7%

7+ Ks

30.8%Line

8+ Ks

16.2%

9+ Ks

7.7%

10+ Ks

2.7%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	54.1%	17.6%	19.4%	95.7
Slider	19.9%	22.7%	20%	87
Curveball	14.4%	30.8%	25%	77.9
Splitter	11.6%	33.3%	11.1%	86.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

35.7%

2-Strike Foul%

14.8%

2-Strike Contact%

75.8%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	7	57.1%	42.9%
1-2	19	36.8%	57.9%
2-2	13	30.8%	61.5%
3-2 (full)	7	42.9%	57.1%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Curveball	Splitter
Konnor GriffinR	27.4%	25.9%	28.2% vs L: 27.3%	24% vs L: 18.2%	21.1% vs L: 22.2%	13.3%
Esmerlyn ValdezR	34%	41%	31.5% vs L: 23.8%	24.4% vs L: 35.7%	20% vs L: 14.3%	28.6% vs L: 40%
Bryan ReynoldsS	22.5%	23.8%	20.8% vs L: 19.4%	27.1% vs L: 34.3%	20.8% vs L: 24%	17.6% vs L: 0%
Oneil CruzL	41.1%	31.7%	25% vs L: 27.6%	22.1% vs L: 26.3%	39.4% vs L: 50%	31.8%
Nick GonzalesR	16.4%	16.4%	13.7% vs L: 7.9%	11.1% vs L: 12.5%	25.7% vs L: 31.2%	22.7% vs L: 50%
Rafael Flores Jr.R	30.8%	30.6%	34.3% vs L: 30%	33.3% vs L: 35.7%	25% vs L: 28.6%	—
Jared TrioloR	14.1%	23.3%	19.8% vs L: 11.1%	16.7% vs L: 6.2%	27.3% vs L: 28.6%	6.7%
Jake MangumS	20.5%	19.2%	18.9% vs L: 16.7%	14.1% vs L: 15.8%	11.8% vs L: 30%	11.1%
Nick YorkeR	27.1%	17.9%	14% vs L: 17.6%	21.4% vs L: 42.9%	11.1% vs L: 20%	66.7%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Curveball	Splitter
Konnor GriffinR	24.8% vs L: 17.9%	35.6% vs L: 26.3%	47.6% vs L: 58.3%	29.4%
Esmerlyn ValdezR	41.4% vs L: 36.7%	32% vs L: 28.6%	33.3% vs L: 30%	50% vs L: 42.9%
Bryan ReynoldsS	16.4% vs L: 23.5%	39.7% vs L: 43.2%	36.4% vs L: 40%	31.8% vs L: 22.2%
Oneil CruzL	27.6% vs L: 22.2%	42.7% vs L: 41.7%	50% vs L: 75%	51.6%
Nick GonzalesR	14.4% vs L: 8.1%	29.9% vs L: 30.6%	30.2% vs L: 47.4%	45.8% vs L: 66.7%
Rafael Flores Jr.R	29.7% vs L: 22.9%	39.1% vs L: 42.9%	30.8% vs L: 42.9%	—
Jared TrioloR	11.4% vs L: 7.6%	31.9% vs L: 20%	32% vs L: 22.2%	10%
Jake MangumS	19.1% vs L: 13.5%	18.6% vs L: 11.1%	15.8% vs L: 21.1%	27.3%
Nick YorkeR	19.3% vs L: 26.4%	27.3% vs L: 40%	20% vs L: 25%	57.1%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Bryan Reynolds	10	1	10%	.111
Jake Mangum	4	0	0%	.000
Nick Gonzales	3	1	33.3%	.333
Oneil Cruz	2	1	50%	.500
Jared Triolo	2	0	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Konnor Griffin	44.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Esmerlyn Valdez	20.5%	25%	50%	51.9%
Bryan Reynolds	26.9%	21.7%	13.7%	75%
Oneil Cruz	24.2%	24.6%	33.3%	67.1%
Nick Gonzales	31.3%	25%	10.9%	86.5%
Rafael Flores Jr.	28.6%	30.6%	32.4%	76.7%
Jared Triolo	25.6%	30.1%	16.7%	84.8%
Jake Mangum	43.6%	40.3%	20.6%	82.1%
Nick Yorke	43.5%	45.7%	33.3%	63.4%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-23	Texas Rangers	3.8	4
2026-08-30	Philadelphia Phillies	3.8	6
2026-09-05	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.39	6

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 20%

!Whiff rate is 25.3%

!CSW rate is 27.1%

✓Opponent K% is 24.3%

!Average pitch count is 82.8

!WHIP is 1.69

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	6	6	89	1.47	—	—
2026-08-30	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	7	6	92	1.49	12	50%
2026-08-23	Texas Rangers	Away	5	4	89	1.58	16	25%
2026-04-29	Chicago White Sox	Away	2	1	35	1.58	—	—
2026-04-24	Kansas City Royals	Away	5	5	90	1.59	—	—
2026-04-18	San Diego Padres	Home	6	8	86	1.63	—	—
2026-04-13	New York Yankees	Away	3.1	3	82	1.89	—	—
2026-04-07	Atlanta Braves	Home	5	8	97	1.77	—	—
2026-04-01	Chicago Cubs	Away	5.1	5	91	1.97	—	—
2026-03-27	Houston Astros	Away	4.1	3	86	2.08	—	—