MLB pitcher strikeout

Zack Wheeler

vs Atlanta Braves2026-09-05DraftKingsRHP

Projection

6.1

Ensemble: 7.2

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.4

Under 6.5

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

DraftKings

Confidence

83/100

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Pitcher K%

23.1%

Whiff%

28.7%

CSW%

28.5%

WHIP

0.98

Avg IP

4.7

Avg pitches

87.8

Last 5 avg Ks

6.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

27.2%

Platoon K%

31.7%

Team chase

33.2%

Recent chase

35.9%

Recent contact

78.4%

Recent K% (7d)

24.4%

Opp K% vs RHP

22.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.8%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model projection

6.1

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 6.1

Sep 5

vs ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 30

@ LAA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 24

@ SEA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 18

vs MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 12

@ STL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.8

Selected starts

Average margin

-2.7

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (4/10)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 17

Sep 5

vs ATL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 30

@ LAA

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 24

@ SEA

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Aug 18

vs MIA

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 12

@ STL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Atlanta Braves

No prior starts found against Atlanta Braves.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	6.5	+105	-134	-0.4	+0.4	Best Under
FanDuel	6.5	-108	-118	-0.4	+0.4	—
Pinnacle	6.5	-102	-130	-0.4	+0.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

85.9%

5+ Ks

72.2%

6+ Ks

53.4%

7+ Ks

34.6%Line

8+ Ks

19.4%

9+ Ks

9.3%

10+ Ks

3.8%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	33.4%	25.3%	19.5%	95.2
Splitter	16.4%	44.8%	22.9%	87.5
Sinker	15.3%	15.8%	20%	94.8
Sweeper	14.9%	39.1%	23.1%	81.3
Cutter	10.5%	18.8%	34.6%	90.6
Curveball	9.4%	50%	25.7%	79.9

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

39.4%

2-Strike Foul%

26.5%

2-Strike Contact%

78.8%

Expected Ks

K Luck

-8

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	28	39.3%	57.1%
1-2	38	39.5%	60.5%
2-2	33	33.3%	66.7%
3-2 (full)	26	30.8%	69.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Splitter	Sinker	Sweeper	Cutter	Curveball
Drake BaldwinL	20%	22.3%	14.4% vs R: 13.6%	9.1% vs R: 8.7%	9.1% vs R: 11.1%	22.2% vs R: 17.4%	20% vs R: 21.7%	22.9% vs R: 26.3%
Ronald Acuña Jr.R	24%	22.7%	20.5% vs R: 24.1%	16.7% vs R: 25%	11.4% vs R: 9.1%	15.1% vs R: 18.2%	18.2% vs R: 13%	18.8% vs R: 15.8%
Matt OlsonL	25.4%	25.8%	21.8% vs R: 18.1%	7.1% vs R: 8.3%	15.1% vs R: 22.2%	25.3% vs R: 36.7%	10.9% vs R: 12.1%	18.5% vs R: 15.7%
Michael Harris IIL	18.3%	20.5%	14.3% vs R: 14.2%	26.3% vs R: 26.3%	14.3% vs R: 12.9%	21.5% vs R: 19%	13.6% vs R: 11.1%	36.7% vs R: 36.8%
Mauricio DubónR	10.1%	13%	12.9% vs R: 13.9%	7.1% vs R: 0%	14.3% vs R: 17%	7.4% vs R: 8.6%	2.8% vs R: 4.2%	5.1% vs R: 0%
Ozzie AlbiesS	8.9%	18%	14.4% vs R: 14.9%	15.8% vs R: 17.9%	14.5% vs R: 8.1%	17% vs R: 21.6%	16.2% vs R: 14.3%	8.5% vs R: 9.4%
Dominic SmithL	13.9%	15.9%	11.5% vs R: 13%	4.5% vs R: 4.5%	16.7% vs R: 16%	15.4% vs R: 18.8%	10.5% vs R: 11.1%	22.6% vs R: 20.7%
Austin RileyR	32.1%	31.1%	26.8% vs R: 26.8%	21.7% vs R: 26.7%	24.2% vs R: 26.8%	20% vs R: 18.6%	29.2% vs R: 27.3%	17.1% vs R: 10.5%
Ha-Seong KimR	26.5%	23.2%	23.1% vs R: 19.2%	—	0% vs R: 0%	15.4% vs R: 20%	33.3% vs R: 50%	33.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Splitter	Sinker	Sweeper	Cutter	Curveball
Drake BaldwinL	17.5% vs R: 17.9%	18% vs R: 19%	11% vs R: 10.5%	24% vs R: 24.4%	23.8% vs R: 27%	29.8% vs R: 30.6%
Ronald Acuña Jr.R	28.1% vs R: 29.1%	31.8% vs R: 46.7%	14.9% vs R: 14.2%	33.3% vs R: 38.5%	31.4% vs R: 34.9%	21.7% vs R: 21.4%
Matt OlsonL	21.3% vs R: 20.4%	33.3% vs R: 29%	10.2% vs R: 7.8%	26.7% vs R: 25%	19.2% vs R: 19.5%	23.1% vs R: 17.2%
Michael Harris IIL	18% vs R: 17.3%	29.4% vs R: 27.3%	10.4% vs R: 10.1%	22.6% vs R: 13.9%	15.9% vs R: 13.6%	36.5% vs R: 36.5%
Mauricio DubónR	11.8% vs R: 11.9%	10% vs R: 7.7%	10.1% vs R: 12.3%	18.8% vs R: 21.1%	10.6% vs R: 12.7%	15% vs R: 17.6%
Ozzie AlbiesS	17.9% vs R: 19.3%	28.6% vs R: 30.2%	14.5% vs R: 15.6%	26.7% vs R: 33.3%	22% vs R: 22.8%	17.1% vs R: 18.3%
Dominic SmithL	10.2% vs R: 10.9%	29.6% vs R: 29.6%	6% vs R: 7.5%	19.6% vs R: 18.9%	22.7% vs R: 23.3%	30% vs R: 29.8%
Austin RileyR	26.5% vs R: 26.1%	43.5% vs R: 46.7%	13.4% vs R: 12.8%	35.2% vs R: 33.9%	35.3% vs R: 39.1%	26.7% vs R: 15.8%
Ha-Seong KimR	17.1% vs R: 16.7%	—	6.4% vs R: 2.9%	17.6% vs R: 18.2%	35.3% vs R: 60%	33.3%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Ozzie Albies	57	9	15.8%	.185
Ronald Acuña Jr.	54	15	27.8%	.231
Austin Riley	50	15	30%	.277
Matt Olson	36	10	27.8%	.188
Dominic Smith	35	8	22.9%	.394
Michael Harris II	24	10	41.7%	.273
Ha-Seong Kim	9	5	55.6%	.250
Drake Baldwin	6	3	50%	.000
Mauricio Dubón	5	1	20%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Drake Baldwin	33.1%	34%	28.6%	66.4%
Ronald Acuña Jr.	32%	30.7%	17.4%	74.7%
Matt Olson	27.5%	35.9%	29.2%	72%
Michael Harris II	45.4%	50.6%	23.3%	77.9%
Mauricio Dubón	37.6%	38.2%	5%	88.8%
Ozzie Albies	40.2%	36.6%	20.8%	83.8%
Dominic Smith	27.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Austin Riley	32.6%	34.6%	28.9%	77.1%
Ha-Seong Kim	22.7%	26.7%	15%	86.4%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	Cincinnati Reds	9.8	14
2026-07-12	Detroit Tigers	11	10
2026-07-21	Los Angeles Dodgers	9.9	9
2026-07-27	Miami Marlins	7.5	6
2026-08-02	Baltimore Orioles	6.8	3
2026-08-07	Toronto Blue Jays	6	6
2026-08-12	St. Louis Cardinals	9.8	5
2026-08-18	Miami Marlins	9.2	7
2026-08-24	Seattle Mariners	8.9	4
2026-08-30	Los Angeles Angels	6.8	6
2026-09-05	Atlanta Braves	6.1	9

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 23.1%

✓Whiff rate is 28.7%

!CSW rate is 28.5%

!Opponent K% is 20.8%

!Average pitch count is 87.8

✓WHIP is 0.98

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Atlanta Braves	Home	6	9	95	1.08	—	—
2026-08-30	Los Angeles Angels	Away	6	6	108	1.09	16	37.5%
2026-08-24	Seattle Mariners	Away	4	4	103	1.09	16	25%
2026-08-18	Miami Marlins	Home	5	7	98	1.01	13	53.8%
2026-08-12	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	5	5	84	1	12	41.7%
2026-08-07	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	5.1	6	116	0.98	14	42.9%
2026-08-02	Baltimore Orioles	Away	2	3	32	0.91	6	50%
2026-07-27	Miami Marlins	Away	3	6	68	0.92	9	66.7%
2026-07-21	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	7	9	93	0.88	15	60%
2026-07-12	Detroit Tigers	Away	6	10	96	0.89	16	62.5%