MLB pitcher strikeout

Sonny Gray

@ Baltimore Orioles2026-09-05FanDuelRHP

Projection

5.2

Ensemble: 4.7

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.3

Under 5.5

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Under 5.5

FanDuel

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

24%

Whiff%

26.1%

CSW%

28.8%

WHIP

1.15

Avg IP

Avg pitches

90.1

Last 5 avg Ks

5.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

14.3%

Platoon K%

23.8%

Team chase

31.7%

Recent chase

32.7%

Recent contact

79.2%

Recent K% (7d)

21.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

22.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

28.2%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

5.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (4/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 5.2

Sep 5

@ BAL

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 26

@ MIA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 21

vs SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 15

@ PIT

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 10

@ TOR

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

16.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Outs

18.3

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

80% (8/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 16.3

Sep 5

@ BAL

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 26

@ MIA

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 21

vs SF

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 15

@ PIT

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 10

@ TOR

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Baltimore Orioles

No prior starts found against Baltimore Orioles.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	-118	-108	-0.3	+0.3	Best Under
DraftKings	5.5	-130	+102	-0.3	+0.3	—
Pinnacle	5.5	-121	-109	-0.3	+0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

81.6%

5+ Ks

66%

6+ Ks

46.4%Line

7+ Ks

28.1%

8+ Ks

14.9%

9+ Ks

6.5%

10+ Ks

2.7%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	24.3%	11.1%	28.3%	92
Sweeper	21.8%	41%	26.8%	84.9
Cutter	18.1%	16.1%	16.7%	88.1
4-Seam Fastball	15.5%	8.8%	25%	91.5
Curveball	14.8%	31%	31%	79.5
Changeup	5.4%	18.5%	0%	86.1

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

49.2%

2-Strike Foul%

16.2%

2-Strike Contact%

69.2%

Expected Ks

32.5

K Luck

-2.5

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	17	58.8%	35.3%
1-2	42	54.8%	45.2%
2-2	22	45.5%	54.5%
3-2 (full)	17	35.3%	64.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Sweeper	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Changeup
Jackson HollidayL	27.7%	21.5%	28.6% vs R: 29.2%	22.2% vs R: 20%	8.3% vs R: 11.1%	23% vs R: 19.1%	32.3% vs R: 38.1%	18.9% vs R: 17.4%
Blaze AlexanderR	23.9%	20.2%	12.1% vs R: 13.3%	15.8% vs R: 0%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	13.8% vs R: 16.3%	16.7% vs R: 14.3%	28.1% vs R: 37.5%
Gunnar HendersonL	21.1%	22%	20% vs R: 20.4%	22.2% vs R: 17.6%	21.1% vs R: 24.1%	17.3% vs R: 16.8%	9.8% vs R: 11.1%	17.5% vs R: 18.3%
Pete AlonsoR	24.2%	23.9%	17.2% vs R: 15.4%	21.3% vs R: 19.5%	26.5% vs R: 20%	15.8% vs R: 17.9%	18.8% vs R: 19%	15.9% vs R: 14.6%
Samuel BasalloL	37.5%	23.5%	29.6% vs R: 18.8%	22.2% vs R: 5%	0% vs R: 0%	30.9% vs R: 28.9%	28.9% vs R: 23.3%	26.3% vs R: 21.2%
Heston KjerstadL	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Christian Encarnacion-StrandR	28.8%	23.3%	17.6% vs R: 23.1%	23.1% vs R: 16.7%	10% vs R: 20%	22.4% vs R: 14%	0% vs R: 0%	18.8% vs R: 16.7%
Dylan BeaversL	22%	25.8%	14.7% vs R: 10.7%	26.5% vs R: 34.8%	32% vs R: 33.3%	19% vs R: 20.8%	25.8% vs R: 24.1%	12.3% vs R: 11.3%
Colton CowserL	42.3%	27.8%	22% vs R: 17.1%	22% vs R: 20%	0% vs R: 0%	17.5% vs R: 19.4%	26.8% vs R: 31.4%	16.9% vs R: 15%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Sweeper	Cutter	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Changeup
Jackson HollidayL	14.1% vs R: 17.9%	17.4% vs R: 7.1%	18.8% vs R: 25%	20% vs R: 18.8%	46.2% vs R: 46.9%	25.7% vs R: 25.8%
Blaze AlexanderR	7.5% vs R: 7.2%	22.2% vs R: 12%	17.9% vs R: 23.5%	26.3% vs R: 28.2%	35.7% vs R: 35.3%	29.2% vs R: 38.5%
Gunnar HendersonL	12.4% vs R: 14.9%	28% vs R: 28.9%	32.5% vs R: 31.6%	14.9% vs R: 15.7%	23.3% vs R: 21.8%	20.7% vs R: 21%
Pete AlonsoR	13.3% vs R: 13%	34.3% vs R: 34.6%	25% vs R: 25%	21.7% vs R: 22.1%	36.7% vs R: 31%	27.4% vs R: 32.7%
Samuel BasalloL	18.1% vs R: 8.6%	31.5% vs R: 22.9%	20.7% vs R: 21.7%	26.3% vs R: 25.5%	37.7% vs R: 33.3%	28% vs R: 24.4%
Heston KjerstadL	—	—	—	—	—	—
Christian Encarnacion-StrandR	18.4% vs R: 19%	25.9% vs R: 20.8%	16% vs R: 8.3%	19.8% vs R: 21.1%	16.7% vs R: 0%	27.1% vs R: 18.8%
Dylan BeaversL	11.7% vs R: 11.6%	29% vs R: 32%	28.3% vs R: 30%	14% vs R: 13.8%	26.5% vs R: 25%	33.3% vs R: 33.9%
Colton CowserL	19.4% vs R: 14.3%	30.2% vs R: 33.3%	18.9% vs R: 21.2%	17.8% vs R: 15.9%	39% vs R: 41%	37.3% vs R: 35.2%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Pete Alonso	12	2	16.7%	.364
Gunnar Henderson	9	1	11.1%	.333
Colton Cowser	5	2	40%	.000
Blaze Alexander	2	0	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jackson Holliday	26.6%	31.6%	22.9%	82.1%
Blaze Alexander	30.6%	32.7%	14.8%	79.3%
Gunnar Henderson	26.7%	31.4%	16.7%	82.8%
Pete Alonso	28.2%	35.2%	25%	72.3%
Samuel Basallo	41.3%	34.3%	27.8%	77.8%
Heston Kjerstad	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	47.6%	42.9%	22.7%	81.2%
Dylan Beavers	23.7%	28.4%	16.7%	80.6%
Colton Cowser	29.1%	25%	25.7%	77.1%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	New York Mets	7.5	3
2026-07-19	Tampa Bay Rays	6.6	5
2026-07-25	Toronto Blue Jays	5	3
2026-07-30	Athletics	4.6	5
2026-08-05	Chicago White Sox	5.2	8
2026-08-10	Toronto Blue Jays	6.8	4
2026-08-15	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.9	7
2026-08-21	San Francisco Giants	5.8	6
2026-08-26	Miami Marlins	5.4	5
2026-09-05	Baltimore Orioles	5.21	7

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 24%

!Whiff rate is 26.1%

!CSW rate is 28.8%

✓Opponent K% is 24.4%

✓Average pitch count is 90.1

✓WHIP is 1.15

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Baltimore Orioles	Away	7	7	92	1.16	—	—
2026-08-26	Miami Marlins	Away	5	5	93	1.18	10	50%
2026-08-21	San Francisco Giants	Home	6	6	97	1.16	13	46.2%
2026-08-15	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	7	7	86	1.15	11	63.6%
2026-08-10	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	6	4	99	1.15	14	28.6%
2026-08-05	Chicago White Sox	Home	6	8	83	1.15	13	61.5%
2026-07-30	Athletics	Away	7	5	97	1.17	9	55.6%
2026-07-25	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	5	3	75	1.16	11	27.3%
2026-07-19	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	6	5	91	1.12	9	55.6%
2026-07-10	New York Mets	Away	6	3	91	1.1	8	37.5%