MLB pitcher strikeout

Martín Pérez

@ Philadelphia Phillies2026-09-05DraftKingsLHP

Projection

3.7

Ensemble: 3.4

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

No qualifying edge

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

15.8%

Whiff%

22.5%

CSW%

25.3%

WHIP

1.19

Avg IP

Avg pitches

77.4

Last 5 avg Ks

3.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

14.9%

Platoon K%

17.4%

Team chase

32.9%

Recent chase

33.1%

Recent contact

78.7%

Recent K% (7d)

16.5%

Opp K% vs RHP

21.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

19.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.7

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.7

Sep 5

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 29

vs COL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 22

@ MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 17

@ MIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 11

vs NYM

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 15

Sep 5

@ PHI

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 29

vs COL

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 22

@ MIL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 17

@ MIN

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 11

vs NYM

OVER

Outs

+3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Philadelphia Phillies

No prior starts found against Philadelphia Phillies.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	+105	-133	+0.2	-0.2	—
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	+0.2	-0.2	—
Pinnacle	3.5	+103	-137	+0.2	-0.2	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

54.4%Line

5+ Ks

33.5%

6+ Ks

16.8%

7+ Ks

6.7%

8+ Ks

2.2%

9+ Ks

0.6%

10+ Ks

0.2%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	40.2%	8.6%	16.1%	88.9
Changeup	29.2%	38.2%	21.7%	81.1
Cutter	21.7%	14.6%	14.9%	84.5
Curveball	5.9%	15.8%	0%	76.2
4-Seam Fastball	3.1%	0%	0%	89.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

37.2%

2-Strike Foul%

26.1%

2-Strike Contact%

77.2%

Expected Ks

15.8

K Luck

+0.2

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	21	57.1%	42.9%
1-2	18	27.8%	72.2%
2-2	14	7.1%	92.9%
3-2 (full)	15	13.3%	86.7%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Changeup	Cutter	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball
Kyle SchwarberL	28.6%	35.2%	19.2% vs L: 14.3%	30.7% vs L: 38.1%	24.2% vs L: 12.5%	17.3% vs L: 26.1%	27.4% vs L: 22.2%
Trea TurnerR	16%	24.4%	14.5% vs L: 14.3%	17.1% vs L: 11.4%	25% vs L: 18.8%	11.3% vs L: 13.6%	20.7% vs L: 13.9%
Bryce HarperL	25.9%	17.5%	14.1% vs L: 5.3%	10.1% vs L: 4.3%	19.4% vs L: 30%	13% vs L: 15.6%	20.8% vs L: 29.6%
Luis ArraezL	8%	2.7%	5.2% vs L: 10.9%	3.5% vs L: 0%	5.6% vs L: 12.5%	0% vs L: 0%	4.8% vs L: 10.3%
Alec BohmR	12.7%	14.8%	17.7% vs L: 29.4%	11.4% vs L: 15%	28% vs L: 40%	9.7% vs L: 12.5%	12.9% vs L: 11.1%
Edmundo SosaR	21.1%	20.8%	21.9% vs L: 30%	21.8% vs L: 21.4%	18.2% vs L: 16.7%	17.6% vs L: 14.3%	6.9% vs L: 4.3%
J.T. RealmutoR	14.1%	22.3%	17.3% vs L: 9.1%	19% vs L: 10.5%	27.3% vs L: 28.6%	17.4% vs L: 7.7%	16% vs L: 8.5%
Bryson StottL	15%	17.5%	8.2% vs L: 4.2%	14.5% vs L: 0%	18.8% vs L: 14.3%	4% vs L: 0%	15.2% vs L: 17.8%
Derek HillR	32.5%	34.7%	37% vs L: 41.2%	14.8% vs L: 14.3%	46.2% vs L: 50%	43.8% vs L: 60%	25.3% vs L: 26.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Changeup	Cutter	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball
Kyle SchwarberL	14.6% vs L: 14.8%	41% vs L: 47.1%	27% vs L: 21.4%	39.1% vs L: 38.1%	23.5% vs L: 20.9%
Trea TurnerR	9.5% vs L: 7.8%	32.6% vs L: 34%	25.3% vs L: 3.3%	27.8% vs L: 25.9%	19.6% vs L: 14.4%
Bryce HarperL	12.8% vs L: 10.9%	24.1% vs L: 17.6%	23.2% vs L: 29.2%	30.6% vs L: 30.8%	24.7% vs L: 35%
Luis ArraezL	2.7% vs L: 0.9%	5.9% vs L: 0%	7.7% vs L: 25%	2.6% vs L: 12.5%	7.4% vs L: 12%
Alec BohmR	8.8% vs L: 2.4%	23.1% vs L: 29.4%	15.4% vs L: 11.1%	11.1% vs L: 6.7%	12.7% vs L: 6.8%
Edmundo SosaR	10.1% vs L: 9.1%	34.1% vs L: 30.9%	23.1% vs L: 19.2%	37.5% vs L: 39.1%	16.5% vs L: 19.2%
J.T. RealmutoR	10.7% vs L: 4.3%	35.8% vs L: 26.5%	30% vs L: 14.3%	32.3% vs L: 28.6%	17% vs L: 14.5%
Bryson StottL	9.9% vs L: 2.6%	18.6% vs L: 0%	15.9% vs L: 11.1%	7.5% vs L: 0%	17.7% vs L: 23.6%
Derek HillR	23.2% vs L: 24.4%	38.5% vs L: 39.4%	28.9% vs L: 33.3%	59.3% vs L: 60%	26.7% vs L: 23.8%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
J.T. Realmuto	22	1	4.5%	.286
Bryce Harper	21	4	19%	.263
Alec Bohm	21	5	23.8%	.400
Trea Turner	18	0	0%	.294
Kyle Schwarber	15	5	33.3%	.154
Luis Arraez	9	0	0%	.125
Edmundo Sosa	8	2	25%	.250
Derek Hill	4	2	50%	.333
Bryson Stott	3	0	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Kyle Schwarber	26.2%	31.7%	28%	68.6%
Trea Turner	33.5%	32.4%	22.4%	74.4%
Bryce Harper	30.2%	22.4%	18.8%	77.3%
Luis Arraez	34.2%	47.6%	2.5%	95.2%
Alec Bohm	28.1%	32.9%	23.7%	77.3%
Edmundo Sosa	51.5%	40.7%	26.7%	70.4%
J.T. Realmuto	28.7%	25.6%	11.8%	83.8%
Bryson Stott	30.1%	31.7%	23.1%	83.3%
Derek Hill	33.9%	N/A	N/A	78.3%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-22	San Diego Padres	1.2	3
2026-07-27	New York Mets	3.5	4
2026-08-01	Washington Nationals		6
2026-08-06	Miami Marlins	3.7	3
2026-08-11	New York Mets	2.1	2
2026-08-17	Minnesota Twins	1.4	3
2026-08-22	Milwaukee Brewers	1	2
2026-08-29	Colorado Rockies	2	6
2026-09-05	Philadelphia Phillies	3.71	3

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 15.8%

!Whiff rate is 22.5%

!CSW rate is 25.3%

!Opponent K% is 19.6%

!Average pitch count is 77.4

!WHIP is 1.19

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	3.2	3	84	1.27	—	—
2026-08-29	Colorado Rockies	Home	5.2	6	83	1.21	11	54.5%
2026-08-22	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	4	2	97	1.21	10	20%
2026-08-17	Minnesota Twins	Away	5	3	82	1.19	9	33.3%
2026-08-11	New York Mets	Home	6	2	82	1.15	8	25%
2026-08-06	Miami Marlins	Home	3	3	35	1.15	5	60%
2026-08-01	Washington Nationals	Home	7	6	78	1.17	8	75%
2026-07-27	New York Mets	Away	5	4	87	1.23	11	36.4%
2026-07-22	San Diego Padres	Home	4	3	75	1.2	9	33.3%
2026-07-05	New York Mets	Home	4.1	1	77	1.19	8	12.5%