MLB pitcher strikeout

Chris Sale

@ Philadelphia Phillies2026-09-04PinnacleLHP

Projection

6.1

Ensemble: 6.9

Market line

6.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+0.4

Under 6.5

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's projection, market line, and model edge.

Recommendation

Under 6.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

A+

100/100

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's recommendation and confidence grade.

Pitcher K%

34.4%

Whiff%

29.8%

CSW%

34.1%

WHIP

1.04

Avg IP

6.1

Avg pitches

92.2

Last 5 avg Ks

7.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

31%

Platoon K%

32.1%

Team chase

34%

Recent chase

33.1%

Recent contact

80%

Recent K% (7d)

15.9%

Opp K% vs RHP

22.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

19.5%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see matchup-specific stats.

Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

6.1

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

7.3

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 6.1

Sep 4

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 27

vs LAD

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Aug 21

@ MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 14

vs ARI

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 8

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

17.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 17.2

Sep 4

@ PHI

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 27

vs LAD

OVER

Outs

+9.5

Aug 21

@ MIL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 14

vs ARI

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 8

@ NYY

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history vs. results.

Analytics

Career vs. Philadelphia Phillies

No prior starts found against Philadelphia Phillies.

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see career history vs. today's opponent.

Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	6.5	-110	-120	-0.4	+0.4	Best Under
DraftKings	6.5	-124	-103	-0.4	+0.4	—
FanDuel	6.5	-125	-102	-0.4	+0.4	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see sportsbook lines and edges.

Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

87.6%

5+ Ks

74%

6+ Ks

56.4%

7+ Ks

37.9%Line

8+ Ks

22.2%

9+ Ks

10.9%

10+ Ks

4.3%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's strikeout ladder.

Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	43.4%	25.3%	24.3%	96.4
Slider	37.7%	34.9%	23.5%	80.1
Changeup	10%	24.2%	5.6%	89.3
Sinker	9%	2%	21.4%	96.1

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

54.4%

2-Strike Foul%

25.9%

2-Strike Contact%

68.8%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	38	63.2%	31.6%
1-2	42	52.4%	45.2%
2-2	33	48.5%	51.5%
3-2 (full)	16	43.8%	56.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sinker
Kyle SchwarberL	28.6%	35.3%	27.8% vs L: 23.3%	26.2% vs L: 27.3%	30.7% vs L: 38.1%	18.8% vs L: 13.3%
Trea TurnerR	16.2%	24.4%	20.7% vs L: 13.9%	20.9% vs L: 11.8%	17.1% vs L: 11.4%	14.5% vs L: 14.3%
Bryce HarperL	25.3%	17.6%	21.3% vs L: 30%	19.5% vs L: 21.4%	10.1% vs L: 4.3%	14.1% vs L: 5.3%
Luis ArraezL	8.2%	2.7%	4.8% vs L: 10.3%	4.8% vs L: 5.3%	3.5% vs L: 0%	5.2% vs L: 10.9%
Alec BohmR	13%	14.6%	13% vs L: 11.1%	12.2% vs L: 14.3%	11.9% vs L: 15%	17.7% vs L: 29.4%
Edmundo SosaR	21.1%	20%	7.2% vs L: 4.7%	20.5% vs L: 21.1%	21.2% vs L: 22.5%	21.9% vs L: 30%
Bryan De La CruzR	12.5%	29.6%	21.1% vs L: 10%	14.3% vs L: 0%	33.3% vs L: 20%	0%
J.T. RealmutoR	13.4%	22.3%	16.1% vs L: 8.5%	17.1% vs L: 16.7%	19% vs L: 10.5%	17.3% vs L: 9.1%
Derek HillR	33.9%	33.8%	26.4% vs L: 29%	20.5% vs L: 31.2%	14.8% vs L: 14.3%	37% vs L: 41.2%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Sinker
Kyle SchwarberL	23.5% vs L: 20.7%	35% vs L: 45.3%	41% vs L: 47.1%	14.5% vs L: 14.7%
Trea TurnerR	19.8% vs L: 14.6%	33.2% vs L: 21.4%	33% vs L: 34.7%	9.5% vs L: 7.8%
Bryce HarperL	24.8% vs L: 34.3%	44.1% vs L: 43.3%	24.1% vs L: 17.6%	12.8% vs L: 10.9%
Luis ArraezL	7.4% vs L: 12%	9.9% vs L: 22.9%	5.9% vs L: 0%	2.7% vs L: 0.9%
Alec BohmR	12.8% vs L: 6.9%	19.1% vs L: 7.1%	24% vs L: 30.3%	8.8% vs L: 2.4%
Edmundo SosaR	16.9% vs L: 20%	37% vs L: 32%	34.6% vs L: 32.3%	10.1% vs L: 9.1%
Bryan De La CruzR	21.9% vs L: 14.3%	22.2% vs L: 30%	44.4% vs L: 28.6%	25%
J.T. RealmutoR	16.5% vs L: 13.3%	26.5% vs L: 21.4%	35.8% vs L: 26.5%	10.7% vs L: 4.3%
Derek HillR	28% vs L: 25.5%	32.8% vs L: 39.3%	39.5% vs L: 40.6%	23.2% vs L: 24.4%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal whiff matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Kyle Schwarber	21	7	33.3%	.263
Trea Turner	21	6	28.6%	.316
Alec Bohm	19	6	31.6%	.278
Luis Arraez	18	0	0%	.250
Edmundo Sosa	17	7	41.2%	.125
Bryce Harper	15	7	46.7%	.133
J.T. Realmuto	15	6	40%	.133
Bryan De La Cruz	3	1	33.3%	.333
Derek Hill	3	1	33.3%	.333

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Kyle Schwarber	25.9%	28.4%	25.5%	68.4%
Trea Turner	33.3%	36.3%	22%	75.5%
Bryce Harper	30.4%	23.2%	20.8%	74.7%
Luis Arraez	34.5%	51.2%	2.6%	94%
Alec Bohm	27.8%	32.5%	21.1%	78.8%
Edmundo Sosa	51.7%	32%	13.3%	82.1%
Bryan De La Cruz	39.8%	34.3%	17.6%	86.1%
J.T. Realmuto	28.3%	26.9%	11.4%	84.2%
Derek Hill	34.1%	N/A	N/A	76.2%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see batter-vs-pitcher history and lineup chase rate.

Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	St. Louis Cardinals	7.5	5
2026-07-17	Texas Rangers	7.6	6
2026-07-23	San Diego Padres	7	11
2026-07-29	New York Mets	7	9
2026-08-08	New York Yankees	7.5	8
2026-08-14	Arizona Diamondbacks	9.2	9
2026-08-21	Milwaukee Brewers	9.6	6
2026-09-04	Philadelphia Phillies	6.14	7

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history and model reasoning.

Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 34.4%

✓Whiff rate is 29.8%

✓CSW rate is 34.1%

!Opponent K% is 20%

✓Average pitch count is 92.2

✓WHIP is 1.04

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see why this projection was made.

Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	5.1	5	93	1.01	—	—
2026-08-27	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	9	11	109	1	16	68.8%
2026-08-21	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	6	6	94	1.03	16	37.5%
2026-08-14	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	6	9	108	1.02	19	47.4%
2026-08-08	New York Yankees	Away	6	8	103	1.02	14	57.1%
2026-07-29	New York Mets	Away	6	9	94	1.02	14	64.3%
2026-07-23	San Diego Padres	Home	6	11	98	1.05	18	61.1%
2026-07-17	Texas Rangers	Home	7	6	89	1.06	12	50%
2026-07-10	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	3	5	43	1.11	8	62.5%
2026-07-04	New York Mets	Home	5	3	98	1.12	15	20%