MLB pitcher strikeout

Merrill Kelly

@ Houston Astros2026-09-04PinnacleRHP

Projection

Ensemble: 4.2

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+0.5

Under 4.5

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Under 4.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

16%

Whiff%

23.2%

CSW%

24.5%

WHIP

1.48

Avg IP

5.4

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

3.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

14.8%

Platoon K%

17.2%

Team chase

32.9%

Recent chase

33.5%

Recent contact

78.6%

Recent K% (7d)

19.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

21%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.6

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 4

Sep 4

@ HOU

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Aug 29

@ SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 24

vs CHC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 18

@ BOS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 12

vs COL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

14.7

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.7

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 16.5Model 14.7

Sep 4

@ HOU

UNDER

Outs

-13.5

Aug 29

@ SF

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 24

vs CHC

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 18

@ BOS

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 12

vs COL

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Houston Astros

No prior starts found against Houston Astros.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	4.5	+115	-154	-0.5	+0.5	Best Under
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-0.5	+0.5	—
DraftKings	4.5	+119	-152	-0.5	+0.5	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

57%

5+ Ks

35.5%Line

6+ Ks

18.9%

7+ Ks

8.6%

8+ Ks

3.3%

9+ Ks

10+ Ks

0.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Changeup	29%	30.2%	21.4%	88.6
4-Seam Fastball	28.2%	10%	9.6%	92.2
Curveball	12.4%	16.1%	9.8%	82.8
Cutter	12.1%	9%	20%	91
Sinker	10%	7.5%	12%	92.3
Slider	8.2%	32.1%	15.4%	86.4

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

34.5%

2-Strike Foul%

25.2%

2-Strike Contact%

77.1%

Expected Ks

19.1

K Luck

-0.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	22	50%	50%
1-2	22	40.9%	59.1%
2-2	22	22.7%	77.3%
3-2 (full)	14	21.4%	78.6%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Cutter	Sinker	Slider
Jeremy PeñaR	24.4%	21.2%	14.8% vs R: 12.8%	15.9% vs R: 10.3%	47.1% vs R: 48%	4.5% vs R: 5.3%	7.9% vs R: 8.3%	24.4% vs R: 24.3%
Yordan AlvarezL	15.6%	17.9%	16.5% vs R: 15.8%	13.5% vs R: 15.3%	20% vs R: 13.9%	20.5% vs R: 20%	18.8% vs R: 19.6%	15.6% vs R: 17.6%
Isaac ParedesR	15%	12.3%	7.7% vs R: 9.1%	9.5% vs R: 10.6%	14.9% vs R: 7.5%	2.7% vs R: 3.1%	5.7% vs R: 4.8%	12.9% vs R: 11.9%
Jose AltuveR	20.4%	20.5%	19.5% vs R: 25%	23.9% vs R: 22.9%	11.5% vs R: 30%	14.3% vs R: 5%	25% vs R: 26.4%	16.9% vs R: 16.2%
Daulton VarshoL	20%	20%	13.6% vs R: 17.4%	21.3% vs R: 22.4%	20% vs R: 18.9%	11.1% vs R: 10.5%	22.2% vs R: 21.2%	18.1% vs R: 21.4%
Christian WalkerR	19.7%	24.7%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%	22.9% vs R: 22.7%	19.2% vs R: 16.7%	15.6% vs R: 14.3%	10.4% vs R: 12.7%	23.1% vs R: 23.9%
Taylor TrammellL	24.2%	32.1%	13.3% vs R: 13.3%	27.4% vs R: 28.7%	27.3% vs R: 27.3%	0% vs R: 0%	35.3% vs R: 40%	38.7% vs R: 41.7%
Yainer DiazR	23.1%	13.2%	24% vs R: 20%	23.5% vs R: 20.8%	4.5% vs R: 0%	20% vs R: 11.1%	41.2% vs R: 50%	17.4% vs R: 15%
LaMonte Wade Jr.L	30.8%	22.3%	43.8% vs R: 43.8%	16.7% vs R: 17.5%	0% vs R: 0%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%	5.3% vs R: 0%	29.4% vs R: 25%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Cutter	Sinker	Slider
Jeremy PeñaR	42.3% vs R: 35.1%	14.4% vs R: 13.1%	56.4% vs R: 53.3%	27% vs R: 27.3%	9.5% vs R: 8.9%	39.4% vs R: 39.7%
Yordan AlvarezL	16.2% vs R: 15.2%	14.3% vs R: 15.4%	29.7% vs R: 28.9%	14.4% vs R: 12.3%	7.5% vs R: 7.3%	24.8% vs R: 23%
Isaac ParedesR	23.1% vs R: 25%	9.5% vs R: 10.5%	15.6% vs R: 15.8%	13.5% vs R: 18.2%	6.1% vs R: 5.7%	21.6% vs R: 23.7%
Jose AltuveR	19% vs R: 31%	20.7% vs R: 22.2%	22% vs R: 13.3%	12.1% vs R: 9.8%	14.1% vs R: 14.9%	23.2% vs R: 22.3%
Daulton VarshoL	20.2% vs R: 22.5%	18.2% vs R: 19%	20.9% vs R: 21.2%	15.5% vs R: 15.5%	13.6% vs R: 15.3%	22.7% vs R: 22.7%
Christian WalkerR	33.8% vs R: 34.4%	26.4% vs R: 26.9%	36.1% vs R: 38.8%	20.2% vs R: 20.3%	9.6% vs R: 9.9%	38.9% vs R: 39.3%
Taylor TrammellL	33.9% vs R: 34.4%	31% vs R: 32.4%	57.1% vs R: 50%	29% vs R: 27.6%	15.4% vs R: 16.7%	60.4% vs R: 63.2%
Yainer DiazR	20.4% vs R: 11.8%	20.9% vs R: 19.8%	20% vs R: 11.1%	13.5% vs R: 5.9%	13.8% vs R: 15.7%	25.8% vs R: 24.4%
LaMonte Wade Jr.L	50% vs R: 50%	20.8% vs R: 19.4%	11.1% vs R: 11.1%	15.8% vs R: 16.7%	0% vs R: 0%	29.4% vs R: 26.7%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
LaMonte Wade Jr.	39	6	15.4%	.162
Jeremy Peña	11	2	18.2%	.300
Jose Altuve	11	1	9.1%	.222
Yordan Alvarez	6	1	16.7%	.167
Christian Walker	5	2	40%	.200
Taylor Trammell	3	1	33.3%	.000
Yainer Diaz	2	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jeremy Peña	39.7%	46.3%	32.7%	63.2%
Yordan Alvarez	29.9%	31.9%	21.2%	87.2%
Isaac Paredes	27.2%	25.4%	9.6%	89.1%
Jose Altuve	37.8%	39.6%	23.4%	82.7%
Daulton Varsho	37.3%	36.6%	19.1%	74.7%
Christian Walker	33.4%	28.3%	20.8%	77.9%
Taylor Trammell	27.6%	25%	13.8%	80.4%
Yainer Diaz	42.8%	42.9%	23.3%	72.4%
LaMonte Wade Jr.	20.5%	25.5%	35%	79.5%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	San Diego Padres	2.7	6
2026-07-17	St. Louis Cardinals	2.4	3
2026-07-22	Athletics	2.4	3
2026-07-27	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.5	6
2026-08-02	Cleveland Guardians	3.8	5
2026-08-07	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.5	4
2026-08-12	Colorado Rockies	3.7	2
2026-08-18	Boston Red Sox	3.3	2
2026-08-24	Chicago Cubs	2.8	4
2026-08-29	San Francisco Giants	2.5	7
2026-09-04	Houston Astros	4	4

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 16%

!Whiff rate is 23.2%

!CSW rate is 24.5%

!Opponent K% is 19.8%

!Average pitch count is 89

!WHIP is 1.48

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-04	Houston Astros	Away	1	0	10	1.47	—	—
2026-08-29	San Francisco Giants	Away	7	7	100	1.48	17	41.2%
2026-08-24	Chicago Cubs	Home	5.2	4	99	1.51	13	30.8%
2026-08-18	Boston Red Sox	Away	4	2	86	1.52	11	18.2%
2026-08-12	Colorado Rockies	Home	5	2	71	1.48	4	50%
2026-08-07	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	5.2	4	80	1.47	10	40%
2026-08-02	Cleveland Guardians	Away	5	5	96	1.49	12	41.7%
2026-07-27	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	5.2	6	93	1.45	10	60%
2026-07-22	Athletics	Home	5	3	87	1.48	12	25%
2026-07-17	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	5	3	87	1.49	11	27.3%