MLB pitcher strikeout

Max Scherzer

@ Kansas City Royals2026-09-05DraftKingsRHP

Projection

Ensemble: 3.8

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.5

Over 3.5

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

21.3%

Whiff%

24%

CSW%

27.6%

WHIP

1.58

Avg IP

4.8

Avg pitches

84.9

Last 5 avg Ks

4.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

8.8%

Platoon K%

20.1%

Team chase

32.4%

Recent chase

26.7%

Recent contact

81.1%

Recent K% (7d)

15.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

17.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.8%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4

Sep 5

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 30

vs SEA

OVER

Strikeouts

+6.5

Aug 25

vs KC

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 19

@ TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 13

vs BOS

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

15.1

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

13.9

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

40% (4/10)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15.1

Sep 5

@ KC

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 30

vs SEA

OVER

Outs

+5.5

Aug 25

vs KC

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 19

@ TB

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 13

vs BOS

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Kansas City Royals

No prior starts found against Kansas City Royals.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-117	-109	+0.5	-0.5	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	+0.5	-0.5	—
Pinnacle	3.5	-131	-101	+0.5	-0.5	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

59.9%Line

5+ Ks

38.9%

6+ Ks

21.2%

7+ Ks

10.2%

8+ Ks

4.1%

9+ Ks

1.1%

10+ Ks

0.3%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	46.2%	15.1%	12.9%	93.4
Changeup	16.3%	20%	17.8%	84.1
Slider	15.2%	27.8%	18.9%	85
Curveball	13.8%	38.1%	27.6%	74.5
Cutter	8.4%	19.4%	6.2%	88.1

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

37.1%

2-Strike Foul%

24.4%

2-Strike Contact%

76.7%

Expected Ks

23.5

K Luck

-0.5

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	24	58.3%	41.7%
1-2	36	36.1%	63.9%
2-2	28	28.6%	71.4%
3-2 (full)	11	18.2%	81.8%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Slider	Curveball	Cutter
Carter JensenL	29.6%	27.8%	24.6% vs R: 22.3%	17.3% vs R: 20%	25.6% vs R: 25.5%	27.3% vs R: 23.5%	32.3% vs R: 36%
Bobby Witt Jr.R	13.5%	18.4%	16.4% vs R: 16.4%	8% vs R: 0%	21.5% vs R: 21.3%	10.3% vs R: 8%	15% vs R: 15.6%
Jac CaglianoneL	29%	24.3%	31.5% vs R: 28.3%	19.4% vs R: 20.4%	27.3% vs R: 29.3%	21.3% vs R: 17.5%	22.2% vs R: 25%
Salvador PerezR	18.8%	19.8%	17% vs R: 15.5%	19.7% vs R: 26.1%	15.7% vs R: 14.2%	12.7% vs R: 15%	16.3% vs R: 17.9%
Vinnie PasquantinoL	20.5%	13.9%	17% vs R: 15.9%	15.7% vs R: 11.7%	15.5% vs R: 13.2%	8% vs R: 3.2%	9.1% vs R: 10.5%
Michael MasseyL	24.4%	14.1%	16.9% vs R: 17.6%	16.4% vs R: 10.9%	12.8% vs R: 9.1%	12.5% vs R: 11.1%	13% vs R: 15%
John RaveL	16%	21.9%	12% vs R: 12.5%	42.9% vs R: 54.5%	20% vs R: 28.6%	16.7% vs R: 0%	22.2% vs R: 28.6%
Josh RojasL	20%	14.3%	15.4% vs R: 8.7%	17.2% vs R: 18.5%	12.5%	16.7% vs R: 16.7%	33.3%
Isaac CollinsS	21.4%	22.5%	18.4% vs R: 15.6%	25.3% vs R: 25%	26.7% vs R: 29.7%	17.5% vs R: 15.4%	17.6% vs R: 12%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Slider	Curveball	Cutter
Carter JensenL	26.8% vs R: 26.4%	25.8% vs R: 25.8%	31% vs R: 25%	22.8% vs R: 25.5%	32.4% vs R: 32.7%
Bobby Witt Jr.R	17.4% vs R: 17.1%	20% vs R: 7.4%	36% vs R: 37.4%	9.8% vs R: 5.9%	25% vs R: 27.8%
Jac CaglianoneL	25.4% vs R: 23.9%	27.6% vs R: 29.6%	38.3% vs R: 42.9%	33% vs R: 32.4%	17.3% vs R: 15.4%
Salvador PerezR	19.5% vs R: 19%	23.4% vs R: 30.2%	31.8% vs R: 31.7%	23.7% vs R: 25.5%	24.8% vs R: 25.5%
Vinnie PasquantinoL	7.3% vs R: 5.9%	26% vs R: 23.6%	20.5% vs R: 22.7%	17% vs R: 12.1%	15.3% vs R: 15.4%
Michael MasseyL	13.8% vs R: 13.6%	19.6% vs R: 15.2%	26.9% vs R: 13.9%	23.5% vs R: 25%	13.8% vs R: 15.1%
John RaveL	10.9% vs R: 15.8%	42.9% vs R: 45%	23.5% vs R: 27.3%	22.2% vs R: 14.3%	19% vs R: 18.8%
Josh RojasL	10.7% vs R: 8.3%	24.3% vs R: 25%	33.3%	20% vs R: 20%	25%
Isaac CollinsS	11.9% vs R: 10.5%	35.6% vs R: 31.8%	28.9% vs R: 34.5%	34.3% vs R: 30.4%	16.1% vs R: 16.7%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Salvador Perez	39	3	7.7%	.368
Bobby Witt Jr.	9	2	22.2%	.125
Vinnie Pasquantino	9	0	0%	.250
Josh Rojas	6	0	0%	.500
Carter Jensen	5	1	20%	.750
John Rave	5	3	60%	.000
Michael Massey	4	0	0%	.333
Isaac Collins	4	0	0%	.333
Jac Caglianone	1	1	100%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Carter Jensen	21.3%	14.3%	22.9%	75.3%
Bobby Witt Jr.	32.6%	30.5%	14%	79.3%
Jac Caglianone	44.3%	44%	22.5%	69.7%
Salvador Perez	44.9%	39.8%	22.9%	75%
Vinnie Pasquantino	29.6%	26.5%	8.9%	82.4%
Michael Massey	38.5%	16.7%	N/A	90%
John Rave	26.2%	19.3%	14.3%	83.7%
Josh Rojas	30.5%	23.1%	11.8%	92.3%
Isaac Collins	24%	25.9%	25%	82.2%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-27	Washington Nationals	3.3	4
2026-08-02	St. Louis Cardinals	3.4	5
2026-08-08	Philadelphia Phillies	3.5	4
2026-08-13	Boston Red Sox	2.1	4
2026-08-19	Tampa Bay Rays	1.8	1
2026-08-25	Kansas City Royals	0.8	4
2026-08-30	Seattle Mariners	2	10
2026-09-05	Kansas City Royals	4	2

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 21.3%

!Whiff rate is 24%

!CSW rate is 27.6%

!Opponent K% is 20.9%

!Average pitch count is 84.9

!WHIP is 1.58

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-05	Kansas City Royals	Away	5.2	2	76	1.36	—	—
2026-08-30	Seattle Mariners	Home	7	10	97	1.39	16	62.5%
2026-08-25	Kansas City Royals	Home	5	4	92	1.54	13	30.8%
2026-08-19	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	4	1	73	1.51	8	12.5%
2026-08-13	Boston Red Sox	Home	5	4	92	1.46	15	26.7%
2026-08-08	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	5.1	4	84	1.53	10	40%
2026-08-02	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	6	5	84	1.63	12	41.7%
2026-07-27	Washington Nationals	Away	2.2	4	75	1.82	9	44.4%
2026-06-10	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	3.1	4	82	1.73	12	33.3%
2026-04-24	Cleveland Guardians	Home	2.1	0	82	1.61	—	—