Every number on this page comes straight from real play-by-play - no PFF grades, DVOA, or ESPN's proprietary Total QBR. The colored badge on each matchup row shows which side the real numbers favor for that specific stat: green favors the offense, red favors the defense, and goldmeans it's a real dead heat. The two dots on each bar mark the offense's own number (●) and what the defense typically allows (○) along a realistic NFL range - the line between them is just the gap, colored the same way.

EPA (Expected Points Added)

The real point value of every single play, based on down, distance, and field position, averaged across the season. A positive number means the offense is gaining more than a league-average play would in that spot; a very negative “allowed” number means the defense is holding opponents well below average.

Success Rate

The share of plays that meaningfully move the chains - roughly 40%+ of the yards needed on 1st down, 60%+ on 2nd, and a full conversion on 3rd or 4th. It's a steadier read on efficiency than yards per play, since one 60-yard bomb can't hide four stuffed runs.

3rd Down %

How often the offense converts a 3rd down into a fresh set of downs, and on defense, how often opponents convert against them. Real 3rd-down efficiency is one of the clearest drivers of who controls the clock.

Sacks Allowed/G & Sacks/G

The offensive line's real pass-protection record (sacks allowed per game) and the defense's real pass-rush record (sacks recorded per game). Unlike the stats above, a LOWER number is better for the offense here, so the edge badge's color logic is flipped for this row to stay accurate.

Giveaways & Takeaways

Real turnovers - giveaways are the offense's own fumbles lost plus interceptions thrown; takeaways are how many turnovers this defense has actually forced. Same as sacks, fewer giveaways is better for the offense, so this row's coloring is flipped too.

Red Zone TD%

Of the offense's real trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line, the share that ended in a touchdown instead of a field goal or an empty-handed possession.

Passer Rating

The NFL's own traditional formula - completion %, yards per attempt, touchdown %, and interception % - computed directly from real play-by-play, not an estimated or proprietary grade.

Yards / Play

Total yards gained divided by total plays run - a simple, no-frills measure of overall offensive volume.

Points / Game & Points Allowed / Game

Real scoring and real scoring defense, season to date.

Takeaway Differential

Turnovers forced minus turnovers committed. One of the single clearest predictors of who wins the turnover battle, and by extension the game.