MLB hitter props

Josh Lowe

vs Paul SkenesProjected lineup1:35 PM ET

HR probability

9.4%

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Season HR%

3.7%

Park factor

2.7

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

0.9

Expected hits

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.6

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	0.9	0.5DraftKings	+0.4	—	50% (5/10)· 1O streak
H+R+R	1.5	0.5DraftKings	+1.0	—	50% (5/10)· 1O streak
Total Bases	1.4	—	+0.0	—	20% (2/10)· 1O streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	0.5DraftKings	-0.4	—	30% (3/10)· 2U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

60.5%Line

2+ Hits

20.9%

3+ Hits

4.2%

4+ Hits

0.5%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

8.1%

Hard Hit%

39.4%

Exit Velo

87.9 mph

EV90

104 mph

Sweet Spot%

34.3%

Fly Ball%

35.4%

xSLG

0.587

ISO

0.161

28.0%

Contact%

70.0%

Bat Speed

70.7 mph

Swing Length

7.33 ft

Platoon HR%

4.6%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Paul Skenes

View Paul Skenes's report →

Avg

0.667

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Paul Skenes

View Paul Skenes's report →

HR% Allowed

2.6%

Barrel% Allowed

10.1%

Hard Hit% Allowed

44.2%

xSLG Allowed

0.570

Fly Ball% Allowed

23.6%

HR/FB

18.4%

HR/9 (est.)

1.02

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 0.9

Sep 5

@ PIT

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 4

@ PIT

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 1

vs NYY

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 31

vs NYY

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Aug 30

vs PHI

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Paul Skenes's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Josh Lowe's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	44.6%	28.6%	25.4%	96.7	17.6%
Sweeper	15.5%	28.6%	20.6%	84.6	17.1%
Slider	10.9%	30.8%	27.5%	86.9	24.6%
Splitter	9.8%	18.6%	10%	92.9	10%
Sinker	9.7%	13.8%	18.4%	96.6	22.7%
Changeup	9.5%	36.4%	15.2%	88.5	7.9%

Green = a plus pitch for Paul Skenes (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Josh Lowe (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Josh Lowe handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	44.6%	51.6%	0.328	52.2%	0.317
Sweeper	15.5%	28%	0.256	23.1%	0.255
Slider	10.9%	38.9%	0.292	47.1%	0.216
Splitter	9.8%	46.4%	0.335	20%	0.386
Sinker	9.7%	44.4%	0.441	32.4%	0.248
Changeup	9.5%	26.7%	0.486	23.3%	0.288

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