MLB pitcher strikeout
Payton Tolle
Projection
7.2
Model strikeouts
Market line
6.5
FanDuel
Model edge
+0.7
Over 6.5
Recommendation
Over 6.5
FanDuel
Confidence
A+
100/100
Pitcher K%
31.8%
Whiff%
31.6%
CSW%
30.1%
WHIP
1.07
Avg IP
5.3
Avg pitches
84
Last 5 avg Ks
6.8
Games logged
16
Matchup K%
N/A
Platoon K%
28.6%
Team chase
29.2%
Recent chase
29.2%
Recent contact
72.1%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
6.5
FanDuel
Model projection
7.2
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10 overs
Average Ks
5.7
Selected starts
Average margin
-0.8
Vs selected line
Current streak
2
OVER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
6.5
Over
4
Under
6
Push
0
Jul 20
Baltimore Orioles
Strikeouts
9
+2.5
Jul 12
New York Mets
Strikeouts
7
+0.5
Jul 7
Chicago White Sox
Strikeouts
6
-0.5
Jul 1
Washington Nationals
Strikeouts
5
-1.5
Jun 26
New York Yankees
Strikeouts
7
+0.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 6.5 | -370 | -- | +0.7 | -0.7 | Best Over |
| Bovada | 6.5 | -105 | -125 | +0.7 | -0.7 | — |
| Caesars | 7.5 | +104 | -- | -0.3 | +0.3 | — |
| DraftKings | 6.5 | -105 | -120 | +0.7 | -0.7 | — |
| BetMGM | 6.5 | -105 | -125 | +0.7 | -0.7 | — |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 | -105 | -130 | +0.7 | -0.7 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Pete Alonso | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| Gunnar Henderson | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Tyler O'Neill | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| Coby Mayo | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| Leody Taveras | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Sam Huff | 2 | 2 | 100% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 14.9% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 84.6% |
| Pete Alonso | 26.6% | 27.9% | 34.1% | 67.5% |
| Gunnar Henderson | 32.3% | 28.6% | 26.2% | 78.4% |
| Tyler O'Neill | 28.4% | 40% | 27.8% | 80.6% |
| Coby Mayo | 31.7% | 32.4% | 44.4% | 63.6% |
| Leody Taveras | 31.2% | 36.8% | 33.3% | 69.8% |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 39% | N/A | N/A | 70.6% |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | N/A | N/A | N/A | 84.2% |
| Sam Huff | N/A | N/A | N/A | 50% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Chicago White Sox | 4.7 | 6 |
| 2026-07-12 | New York Mets | 5.1 | 7 |
| 2026-07-20 | Baltimore Orioles | 7.2 | 9 |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Baltimore Orioles | Home | 5.2 | 9 | 88 | 1.1 |
| 2026-07-12 | New York Mets | Away | 3.2 | 7 | 66 | 1.07 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chicago White Sox | Away | 6 | 6 | 91 | 1.07 |
| 2026-07-01 | Washington Nationals | Home | 3 | 5 | 76 | 1.12 |
| 2026-06-26 | New York Yankees | Home | 7 | 7 | 88 | 1.02 |
| 2026-06-21 | Seattle Mariners | Away | 6 | 2 | 79 | 1.09 |
| 2026-06-16 | Toronto Blue Jays | Home | 5 | 6 | 90 | 1.06 |
| 2026-06-09 | Tampa Bay Rays | Away | 6 | 3 | 94 | 1.05 |
| 2026-06-03 | Baltimore Orioles | Home | 6 | 5 | 99 | 0.97 |
| 2026-05-28 | Atlanta Braves | Home | 4.2 | 7 | 94 | 0.9 |