MLB pitcher strikeout

Logan Henderson

vs Tampa Bay Rays2026-10-24FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.0

Ensemble: 3.9

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.5

Under 4.5

60% (6/10)· 3U streak

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Recommendation

Under 4.5

FanDuel

Confidence

68/100

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Pitcher K%

22.5%

Whiff%

25.5%

CSW%

26.9%

WHIP

0.88

Avg IP

5.5

Avg pitches

87.2

Last 5 avg Ks

4.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

25.9%

Team chase

32.7%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

17.4%

Opp K% vs LHP

15.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.0

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 3U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 4.5Model 4.0

Oct 12

vs LAD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Oct 4

vs SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 23

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Sep 16

@ PIT

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Sep 9

vs CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

FanDuel

Model projection

14.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

90%

9 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.2

Selected starts

Average margin

+2.7

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

90% (9/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 14.2

Oct 12

vs LAD

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Oct 4

vs SD

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Sep 23

@ PHI

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Sep 16

@ PIT

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Sep 9

vs CHC

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Tampa Bay Rays

No prior starts found against Tampa Bay Rays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-0.5	+0.5	Best Under
DraftKings	4.5	-149	+117	-0.5	+0.5	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

66.3%

5+ Ks

44.3%Line

6+ Ks

25.6%

7+ Ks

12.8%

8+ Ks

5.5%

9+ Ks

2.1%

10+ Ks

0.6%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	49.2%	14.6%	20%	93.2
Changeup	36.7%	36.6%	19%	83.3
Cutter	11.4%	21.6%	14.3%	88.6
Sweeper	2.7%	9.1%	5.6%	81.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

39%

2-Strike Foul%

28.4%

2-Strike Contact%

78.9%

Expected Ks

26.3

K Luck

-3.3

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	31	38.7%	61.3%
1-2	36	30.6%	69.4%
2-2	25	36%	64%
3-2 (full)	14	35.7%	64.3%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Cutter	Sweeper
Yandy DíazR	11.9%	15.3%	16.8% vs R: 21%	10.1% vs R: 9.5%	16.1% vs R: 16.7%	3.7% vs R: 2.2%
Jonathan ArandaL	27.4%	23.2%	17.1% vs R: 15.7%	11.4% vs R: 9.1%	26% vs R: 27.8%	17% vs R: 14.3%
Junior CamineroR	13.8%	20%	16.7% vs R: 17.3%	14.5% vs R: 16.7%	18.5% vs R: 14.3%	22.8% vs R: 23.7%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	13.6%	22.4%	17.7% vs R: 17.8%	20.8% vs R: 21.7%	21.4% vs R: 21.4%	12.5% vs R: 16.7%
Chandler SimpsonL	9.9%	6.7%	5.4% vs R: 5.6%	15.8% vs R: 14.3%	9.7% vs R: 9.1%	16.3% vs R: 18.8%
Jonny DeLucaR	23.2%	19.4%	18.3% vs R: 13.1%	13.5% vs R: 11.1%	12.5% vs R: 16.7%	41.5% vs R: 41.2%
Liam HicksL	14.3%	8.7%	7.6% vs R: 6.1%	12.7% vs R: 11.9%	2.9% vs R: 3.3%	7% vs R: 0%
Ben WilliamsonR	19.4%	18.3%	13% vs R: 11.5%	28.1% vs R: 50%	12.5% vs R: 18.2%	24.2% vs R: 22.2%
Taylor WallsS	21.3%	25.8%	22.9% vs R: 22.3%	26.9% vs R: 28.1%	18.5% vs R: 18.2%	17.9% vs R: 27.8%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Cutter	Sweeper
Yandy DíazR	16.6% vs R: 18.9%	14.3% vs R: 14.3%	10.7% vs R: 11.7%	7.7% vs R: 7.5%
Jonathan ArandaL	22.1% vs R: 21.8%	14.9% vs R: 13.4%	21.7% vs R: 20.2%	20.8% vs R: 20%
Junior CamineroR	20.4% vs R: 20.6%	27.3% vs R: 28.3%	12.1% vs R: 14.1%	31.1% vs R: 32.3%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	24.5% vs R: 25.9%	21.7% vs R: 20.9%	17.1% vs R: 18.8%	8.3% vs R: 11.8%
Chandler SimpsonL	3.5% vs R: 3.2%	23.4% vs R: 21.2%	11.5% vs R: 10.8%	15.7% vs R: 14.3%
Jonny DeLucaR	18.9% vs R: 15.2%	25.8% vs R: 25%	19.2% vs R: 22.2%	32.7% vs R: 34.1%
Liam HicksL	4.7% vs R: 4.2%	16.7% vs R: 15.3%	8.2% vs R: 5.6%	10.9% vs R: 4.5%
Ben WilliamsonR	7.1% vs R: 7.8%	28% vs R: 33.3%	16.7% vs R: 21.7%	34.6% vs R: 38.1%
Taylor WallsS	17.6% vs R: 19.2%	31.2% vs R: 28%	13.7% vs R: 17%	19% vs R: 26.7%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Liam Hicks	2	1	50%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Yandy Díaz	30.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonathan Aranda	30.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Junior Caminero	34.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Victor Mesa Jr.	36.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chandler Simpson	32.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonny DeLuca	37.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Liam Hicks	26.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ben Williamson	37.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Taylor Walls	27%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	St. Louis Cardinals	6.1	4
2026-07-17	Miami Marlins	5.5	4
2026-07-22	New York Mets	5.8	9
2026-07-28	San Francisco Giants	5.1	7
2026-08-04	Pittsburgh Pirates	6.1	8
2026-08-10	San Diego Padres	7.6	7
2026-08-16	Los Angeles Dodgers	8.2	6
2026-08-22	Atlanta Braves	8.7	4
2026-09-03	Chicago Cubs	5.66	7
2026-09-09	Chicago Cubs	5.74	6
2026-09-16	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.79	8
2026-09-23	Philadelphia Phillies	8.3	3
2026-10-04	San Diego Padres	4.99	4
2026-10-12	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.38	2
2026-10-24	Tampa Bay Rays	3.95	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 22.5%

!Whiff rate is 25.5%

!CSW rate is 26.9%

!Opponent K% is 17.1%

!Average pitch count is 87.2

✓WHIP is 0.88

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-12	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	4	2	64	1.11	10	20%
2026-10-04	San Diego Padres	Home	5	4	72	1	11	36.4%
2026-09-23	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	5	3	87	0.84	10	30%
2026-09-16	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	5	8	87	0.81	13	61.5%
2026-09-09	Chicago Cubs	Home	5	6	95	0.78	15	40%
2026-09-03	Chicago Cubs	Away	7	7	102	0.79	14	50%
2026-08-28	Texas Rangers	Home	7	7	91	0.83	12	58.3%
2026-08-22	Atlanta Braves	Home	6	4	100	0.89	15	26.7%
2026-08-16	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	7	6	93	0.87	16	37.5%
2026-08-10	San Diego Padres	Away	6.1	7	91	0.91	13	53.8%